Coming into Saturday's Game 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers knew what they were missing.
The star backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden was struggling badly against the top-seeded Detroit Pistons' vaunted defense. Harden had just gone 3-for-13 in a Game 2 loss, while Mitchell's 31 points weren't enough to save the Cavaliers from an 0-2 deficit.
"You think of just little things, spacing, trying to get [Harden] easier looks," Mitchell said after Game 2.
"We've got to do a better job of running as well, whether it's spacing or putting him in different positions. We'll have that conversation. We've been having that conversation. At the end of the day, we're going to figure it out."
Then they did.
Cleveland blitzed Detroit over Games 3 and 4, with Mitchell and Harden combining for 56 points in a 116-91 Game 3 win before the Cavaliers' most impressive performance of the series in Game 4. Mitchell recorded 43 points on Monday while Harden added 24 and 11 assists to even the series against the Pistons' in a 112-103 win.
Now, both franchises face a crucial Game 5, as the New York Knicks, who wrapped up a sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, await the winner in the Eastern Conference finals.
Our NBA insiders Jamal Collier, Vincent Goodwill and Zach Kram broke down the most important factors to watch during Wednesday's Game 5, including what flipped in the series, how each team can take a 3-2 advantage and which team the Knicks should fear the most.
The Cavaliers evened the series after a disastrous 0-2 start. What changed in Games 3 and 4?
James Harden and Donovan Mitchell looked way more comfortable operating against one of the best defenses in the league, and the Cavs believe they have a blueprint they can use for the rest of the series.
"We made a stand winning these two games," Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson said after Game 4. "That gives you confidence. As difficult as we know it's going to be [in Detroit], it's different at 2-2, a lot different. We obviously gained some confidence with these two wins, and I think we figured some stuff out."
Even after Cleveland dropped the first two games in Detroit, the Cavs felt encouraged by the late-game losses because they were close.
Then, Mitchell erupted for back-to-back scoring outbursts, averaging 39.0 points on 52% shooting in Games 3 and 4.
Harden, for his part, shook off a pair of mistake-filled games and has taken care of the basketball -- five turnovers in Games 3 and 4 after he coughed it up 11 times in the first two contests. And Evan Mobley has made his presence felt all over the defensive end, looking more like the player who won 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year while limiting Jalen Duren's impact for Detroit.
It's the kind of all-around effort that gave the Cavs title hopes entering the postseason, but to advance to the conference finals they will need to transfer that success into a win on the road for the first time during this playoff run. The Cavs are 6-0 at home but 0-5 on the road this postseason. -- Collier
The Pistons will win Game 5 if _________.
They take better care of the ball.
Detroit committed 25 total turnovers in the first two games of this series, versus 36 in Games 3 and 4. Giving the ball away was also a problem against Orlando in the first round when it lost the turnover battle 115-100 over seven games.
Simply put, the Pistons' offense isn't strong enough to withstand so many giveaways; they need all the shot opportunities they can get to keep pace with the Cavaliers' more star-studded attack. In particular, Cade Cunningham needs better ball security going forward -- he leads the NBA with 5.7 turnovers per game in the playoffs. -- Kram
The Cavaliers will win Game 5 if __________.
James Harden stays hot.
In the first two games, the Cavaliers' veteran point guard averaged 16 points on 32% shooting (9% on 3s), with more turnovers than assists. But in Games 3 and 4, he averaged 21.5 points on 46% shooting (50% on 3s), with nearly four times as many assists as turnovers.
Harden doesn't have the most decorated playoff track record, but he has come up clutch when needed this postseason. The Cavaliers must hope that continues in Game 5, rather than the trend of Harden disappointing on the road this spring. -- Kram
What are the stakes for the Pistons in this series?
The stakes aren't as high for the franchise as they are for individual players.
For the franchise, it'll represent a missed opportunity it didn't think was possible. Quietly, the front office viewed getting out of the first round as a successful season rather than holding this roster to the expectations of a normal 60-win team. The fact that Detroit didn't go after reinforcements at the trade deadline, preferring to let the current roster run its course, was an indication of modest expectations.
What the playoffs have shown is that the East is open for the taking, and a move could've taken this team over the top. Jalen Duren, who had an All-NBA-caliber season, is having a less-than-impressive playoffs with his scoring (10.2 points per game) dropping by nearly double-digits after averaging 19.5 points in the regular season. The falloff should make for an interesting negotiation in restricted free agency.
Ausar Thompson -- possibly the league's best defender east of San Antonio -- is also eligible for an extension this summer. The franchise believes it has a long runway of contention after being dormant for eons. But a trip to the conference finals would be a big endorsement of president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon's patient team building and coach J.B. Bickerstaff's molding of young talent. -- Goodwill
The Cavs get a win they had to have in a tight Game 3 vs. the Pistons.
What are the stakes for the Cavaliers in this series?
Everything.
Cleveland has not made it out of the second round since 2018. This current core -- led by Donovan Mitchell, who still hasn't made a conference finals, and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen -- has repeatedly come up short in the conference semifinals, which led to the bold midseason move to bring in 17-year veteran James Harden in exchange for 26-year-old Darius Garland.
If this Cavs experiment falls short of a deep playoff run again, Cleveland has shown it is willing to be aggressive in reimagining the path forward, especially after investing in the most expensive roster in the league.
Losing to the Pistons will start the offseason questions about the future of Mitchell, who has one year guaranteed on his contract beyond this season, as well as the pairing of Mobley and Allen. On top of that, a decision on Harden, who will be seeking a new contract this summer, looms large amid the direction of the franchise under coach Kenny Atkinson.
The Cavs aren't just trying to win a second-round series. They are trying to flip the narratives surrounding their most important players. -- Collier
Which team should the Knicks want to play?
Facing the Cavaliers would allow the Knicks to play exactly the way they want with a free-flowing offense centered around Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Knicks cruise to the Finals if they face Cleveland in the next round.
A matchup with the Pistons -- even with Detroit's young roster looking fatigued -- would do more than annoy the Knicks as they try to get to the Finals for the first time since 1999. The regular-season matchups are long forgotten, but the Pistons would feel confident and motivated against the team that knocked them out in six games in the first round last spring.
Detroit also wouldn't make it easy on Towns and Brunson, with its bigs matching up with Towns and Thompson able to keep watch on Brunson. If nothing else, the Knicks had trouble guarding Cade Cunningham this season (42 points, 13 assists at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 19). The Knicks could get to the Finals regardless, but one team could present the path of least resistence. -- Goodwill
