On Sunday, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons will play a Game 7 to determine which team will advance to the Eastern Conference finals. It's a game that will validate -- or invalidate -- their seasons.
In theory.
That's how it will look on the historic ledger. And if both teams had been told in October that they'd somehow advance to the conference finals, both likely would've described their seasons as successful. But at the end of this grueling series, the reality is a little more nuanced.
The Cavs and Pistons are each 7-6 in their 13 playoff games this postseason. They've had some special moments. Donovan Mitchell had a record 39-point half, and Cade Cunningham had a masterful 45-point performance in a road elimination game.
But the first two rounds for these teams, each of which has played two seven-game series, have shown that both are high-variance squads with serious flaws.
For Detroit, with its core players under 25, that's a challenge to tackle.
For Cleveland, with Mitchell turning 30 this summer and James Harden turning 37, it's far more complicated and urgent. If the Cavs lose, they will face weighty questions.
Have the past three months, since trading for Harden, shown enough for the Cavs to make big decisions about this roster?
Will Mitchell extend his contract this summer or wait until next year when he can be a free agent? If it's the latter, how would the Cavs respond?
If the answers to both don't align, would the Cavs look at radically changing their roster over the next six weeks?
The fallout from Game 7 could have serious implications for how the NBA offseason unfolds.
The Cavs are a second-apron team, the only one in the NBA, with a league-high payroll of $226 million (including the luxury tax, the number is north of $280 million).
A loss Sunday would mark three consecutive years of failing to get out of the second round. The Cavs came closer this season after losing in five games the previous two seasons to the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers, who both went on to win the East. But this year's team was NOT constructed to end up in the same spot.
Cleveland traded franchise point guard Darius Garland for Harden with multiple seasons in mind.
The Cavs were hoping for a lead guard who would be healthier at the end of the season than Garland, and they won that bet.
At the conclusion of the Clippers' season, Garland admitted he had been "playing with nine toes" after his second consecutive campaign was derailed by foot problems.
Harden wanted contract certainty after this season, and the Clippers made it clear at midseason that they hadn't decided whether to pick up his $42 million team option -- $13 million guaranteed -- for next season.
When both sides showed their cards, Harden's representation got permission to find a team willing to commit to him.
The Cavs were willing.
Though a formal agreement is not allowed to be completed before the offseason, there is an understanding that the Cavs plan to work out a new deal to retain Harden, sources said.
Before the move, they must have had an understanding because Harden could have vetoed any trade.
No matter how this playoff run unfolds, Harden, who has been inconsistent in the postseason again, will likely be coming back to Cleveland this summer on a multiyear deal.
Before the trade with LA was even finalized, the Cavs had taken steps to establish a strong bond with Harden, including coach Kenny Atkinson, who has worked to make him a partner from their first conversation.
When the Cavs posted Atkinson's victory speech after the team's Game 5 win in Detroit last week, Harden was seen addressing the team from his locker.
That's a dynamic Atkinson has intentionally cultivated, knowing that when Harden has had good relationships with his coaches, it has led to some of his best play. It was that way with Mike D'Antoni when both were with the Houston Rockets.
But there's another reason the Cavs looked at Harden as a multiyear move, and it's not just because a reduction in his salary for next season, in exchange for a longer deal with more guaranteed money, could help relieve some second-apron issues.
Mitchell doesn't have to do anything this summer, and that could make the Cavs uneasy. After his $50 million salary for 2026-27, Mitchell has a player option for $54 million for '27-28.
The Cavs will likely want to replace Mitchell's option season with a new contract in July, when they can add four years and up to $272 million.
But Mitchell can, and probably should, wait until 2027 to sign a new contract.
Then, with 10 years of service time, he can sign for five years and about $350 million, plus get some perks, such as a no-trade clause.
That is a massive difference in guaranteed money for a player who would be in his mid-30s by the time the extra season kicked in.
But that path would lead to Mitchell becoming an unrestricted free agent, a cloud that would hang over the Cavs next season.
Mitchell has been a consummate franchise player since arriving in 2022, and he has never publicly hinted that he wanted to leave. He extended his contract in 2024, and the Cavs were well aware then that this pinch point would come, regardless of how the team performed.
Nonetheless, it's uncomfortable, especially if the team still hasn't reached the heights many expected at this point in the union.
Then, there is the topic no one wants to discuss.
After subpar showings in Games 5 and 6 with Ausar Thompson and Cunningham hounding him, if Mitchell can't carry the Cavs in Game 7, where does that leave the franchise when it considers paying him $80 million when he's 35?
Would a disappointing end to this season and contract uncertainty nudge the Cavs to evaluate their centerpiece?
Mitchell, who is about to make his second consecutive All-NBA team, is arguably the second-best player in franchise history after LeBron James, and Mitchell is in his prime. For these reasons, the answer is probably a firm "no."
But these situations create reassessments.
Setting aside the Harden and Mitchell contractual situations, there are other factors for the Cavs to consider if they fail to advance to meet the New York Knicks in the conference finals.
A third straight second-round exit, coupled with a lack of significant cap space and limited draft capital to use in trades -- the Cavs are permitted to trade only one future first-round pick (2031) -- might create pressure to adjust the roster elsewhere.
For years, rival teams have shown interest in franchise center Jarrett Allen. With his three-year, $90 million contract, which he signed two years ago, about to begin, that interest could increase.
Max Strus is going into the final year of his contract and will earn $17 million. But neither would bring back star power if the Cavs feel they need to make major moves this summer.
Evan Mobley, one of the league's best defenders, has been coveted by rival teams ever since he was drafted No. 3 by Cleveland in 2021. He has been untouchable and is in the first year of a five-year $270 million deal. He will turn 25 over the summer.
But if the Cavs can't pull off the road upset in Game 7, they could decompress for a few weeks and decide to run it back.
But not until they've addressed a lot of these tough questions, gnashing their teeth along the way.
