Arsenal were close to winning the Premier League title last season -- but how close?
In one sense, they were closer than anyone who didn't get there has ever been. Despite finishing second to Manchester City, Mikel Arteta's side led the division for 248 days. Even though the season only lasted from August to May, the Gunners were top of the table for more than two-thirds of a year -- and they still didn't win.
However, the progression of the calendar can fool you into thinking you saw something that wasn't quite there. Across the entirety of the 38-game season, Arsenal were closer to the teams in fourth or fifth than the one in first. Their goal differential (+45) was nearer to Newcastle United's (+35) than it was to City's (+61). Their expected-goal (xG) differential (+29.9) was worse than Newcastle's (+32.4), and closer to both Liverpool's (+21.7) and Brighton & Hove Albion's (+23.1) than it was to City's (+46.6).
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Perhaps a front-loaded schedule -- both in the number of games and the quality of the opposition -- and some white-hot finishing (88 goals scored from 71.9 xG) created the feeling of a title race that wasn't quite as competitive as it seemed.
However you choose to frame last season's title challenge from Arsenal will frame how you feel about a potential follow-up next season. But how you, or I, frame it doesn't really matter much. Arsenal have already signed Kai Havertz and are expected to finalize a deal for Declan Rice within a matter of days, with those two transfers set to cost them around £170 million ($215m).
So we already know how Arsenal are framing it. They think they're this close.
