With 10 games remaining in the season and just one point separating first- and third-place in the Premier League, these are the factors that will determine the winner of the title, in descending order of importance:
1) Luck
2) Strength of schedule
3) Quality of performance
We can't predict the first one: injuries, finishing, refereeing decisions -- all that stuff is too random. We can't really even be that confident in our prediction for the third one given how close the title contenders have been to each other.
But the second one on that list? Yeah, we can quantify that -- and on the aggregate, Liverpool wins out.
A simple estimate of remaining schedule strength would be the average non-penalty expected-goal differential of each team's final 10 opponents, adjusted for the location of the match. Per Stats Perform's expected-goal (xG) model, here's how the teams stack up:
• Liverpool's opponents: minus-0.08 per game
• Arsenal's opponents: minus-0.02
• Manchester City's opponents: minus-0.01
Except, we don't experience the season as a 10-game block. It's week after week after week, and the remaining strength of schedule shifts with each game that's played. Rather than just conclude that Liverpool have a significantly easier schedule than Arsenal and Man City and leave you with that, we're going to go a step further.
Let's rank the final 30 fixtures of the Premier League season, in order of how difficult they are, measured by a team's non-penalty xG differential at home or on the road. This will serve as our guide through what promises to be a thrilling and chaotic final few months in the Premier League.
