Most seasons when we get to this point in the Champions League, I say the same thing: Manchester City are the most likely team to win the Champions League, but the most likely outcome is that a team other than Manchester City wins the Champions League.
Well, not this year! Because Manchester City have already been eliminated from the Champions League.
City, though, were the betting favorites to win the previous seven Champions League titles at this stage in the competition. With City gone and a lopsided draw that pits four of the top five teams in the Club Elo ratings on one side of the bracket, this season's edition of the tournament feels more wide-open than it has in a really long time.
So, to break it all down, I'm going to do what I do every year: subjectively select a handful of statistical benchmarks, compare those numbers to the previous 14 winners of the competition, and progressively eliminate teams that don't match up until we're left with only one team still standing.
All data, unless otherwise noted, is for domestic play only and comes via Opta and Stats Perform. With that, let's predict the winner of the Champions League!
