The defending champs against this year's most consistently strong challenger. If you can come up with a more fitting matchup for almost literally any final in any competition, I'd love to hear it, and it's exactly what this year's Champions League final will offer: On May 30 in Budapest, Hungary, the 2025 winners Paris Saint-Germain will face Arsenal, a team that is unbeaten in 14 Champions League matches this season.
On Tuesday, Arsenal survived a physical battle against an Atletico Madrid team that has tripped up countless Champions League hopefuls through the years. On Wednesday, PSG made one burst of attacking brilliance hold up and survived 90 minutes in Munich with their advantage intact. Let's look at how both teams advanced and what awaits us in a titanic final.
How Arsenal advanced: By embracing physicality
Arsenal 1, Atletico Madrid 0. Viktor Gyökeres has been a pretty polarizing figure this season. He looks the part more than almost any other center forward -- with his big, physical presence, he can stress and pull defenders, taffy-like, in ways that alter opponents' game plans. He's a willing runner and presser, too, which isn't a given for expensive forwards. He basically does everything you would hope for from a center forward ... except actually attempt shots.
Not including four penalties, he has attempted only 85 shots across 3,311 minutes of competition this year, an average of 2.3 per 90 minutes. He's averaged 2.2 per 90 in the Premier League -- the same as Chelsea's Enzo Fernández, a defensive midfielder -- and in six matches against the rest of the Premier League's top four (Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool) he attempted one shot, worth just 0.03 xG, in 342 minutes.
So yeah, Gyokeres is not a perfect player. He's 27 years old, too; you can't really project him to develop much further, but matchups matter, and he was absolutely perfect for what Arsenal wanted to do against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
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Winning an enormous match against Diego Simeone's Atletico is as much about the physical element of the game as actually putting the ball into the net. (That's good because neither team did that very well at all, turning shots worth a combined 6.3 xG into just three goals over 180 minutes.)
Gyokeres had a case of the zoomies in attack -- he physically ran into Bukayo Saka at one point instead of passing him the ball, he badly missed his only decent shot attempt of the night, and he was just 3-for-11 in ground duels -- but he was the ultimate tone setter. He pressed with abandon for 90 minutes, and he committed two fouls and drew three, one of which came in the third minute of second-half stoppage time (which allowed Arsenal to eat up precious seconds late). He was also a great pressure-release valve for goalkeeper David Raya, who completed more passes to him (six, three after the 80th minute) than anyone else.
In 159 minutes across the two-legged semifinals, Gyokeres attempted just three non-penalty shots and put none of them on target. But you could say he was Arsenal's third-most important player after do-it-all midfielder Declan Rice and Saka, the goal scorer. The Emirates Stadium crowd was loud and dialed-in all evening, and Gyokeres made sure it stayed that way. This was his shining moment as a Gunner, and it came at a pretty good time.
Arsenal still needed someone else to put the ball in the net, of course, and they got their goal late in the first half when Leandro Trossard whipped a wicked shot at Jan Oblak, who did well to get a hand on it. Saka pounced on the rebound and put Arsenal ahead.
IT HAD TO BE BUKAYO SAKA ⭐ pic.twitter.com/CaTKaIGu1a
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) May 5, 2026
Along with Gyokeres' miss in the 66th minute and a miss from Atleti's Giuliano Simeone in the 51st, Saka's goal was one of only three shots worth more than 0.1 xG all night. This was the war of attrition it was expected to be.
Arsenal did get lucky early in the second half. If Simeone would have gone down on contact instead of continuing to fight for a goal, he would have almost certainly drawn a penalty on a breakaway in the 51st minute. And when Arsenal's Gabriel drew a questionable foul in the Arsenal box five minutes later, it saved Riccardo Calafiori from the sure penalty he would have given up seconds later. (You can probably forgive Arsenal for not being particularly sympathetic about this after they were deprived of a deserved penalty late in Madrid last week.)
The Gunners indeed lost the plot for a few minutes, but when Mikel Arteta went for a triple substitution in the 57th minute, bringing on Piero Hincapié, Martin Odegaard and Noni Madueke for Calafiori, Eberechi Eze and Saka, it steadied the ship and re-enlivened a press that helped to keep Atletico at bay. Atleti's Alexander Sortloth whiffed on a major chance in the 86th minute -- he scuffed a well-served ball so lightly that it didn't even go in the books as a shot attempt -- but Arsenal saw the match out with as little drama as possible.
Now they're in the first Champions League final in 20 years, and it's a deserved reward for the steadiest team in Europe.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens criticise Atlético Madrid boss Diego Simoene for subbing off "their strongest players" in their Champions League semifinal loss to Arsenal.
How PSG advanced: They converted their chances (and Bayern finally blinked)
PSG 1, Bayern Munich 1. Over the two legs of the two semifinal matchups, here's how each team converted its chances:
- Atletico Madrid: attempted 27 shots worth 3.2 xG, but scored only once (a 31.3% xG-to-goals conversion rate)
- Arsenal: 24 shots worth 3.1 xG, scored twice (64.5%)
- Bayern Munich: 28 shots worth 4.5 xG, scored five goals (111.1%)
- Paris Saint-Germain: 27 shots worth 2.9 xG, scored six goals (206.9%!)
PSG are heading to Budapest, with a chance to win their second straight Champions League title, because they finished their chances. More specifically, Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia did. They attempted 13 shots worth 2.3 xG over the two legs and scored five times.
In terms of chance creation, PSG were outplayed in the first leg, but Dembele and Kvaratskhelia went into Jordan Shrugs Mode, and PSG scored five goals in 35 minutes. That gave them the advantage and Dembele's Kvaratskhelia-assisted goal, just two minutes into Wednesday's matchup, ended up the clinching score.
PICKING UP RIGHT WHERE WE LEFT OFF 😤🔥
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) May 6, 2026
Ousmane Dembélé fires PSG in to the lead after just 2 minutes and 20 seconds 💥 pic.twitter.com/orFfaDK5ZM
Kvaratskhelia is just relentless. Over the two legs, he led PSG in shots (seven), shots on goal (four), carries (63), duels (29) and duels won (17), and he was second in goals (two), progressive carries (15), total carry distance (420 meters) and even blocked passes (two) and interceptions (three). He attacks with menace, he drops deep and involves himself in buildup -- he did so on the very goal he assisted, actually -- and he's a willing runner and defender.
For a left winger, he sure was everywhere against Bayern.
PSG stormed out of the gate and seemed like the far fresher, sharper team in Munich; whereas Bayern won 68.2% of ground duels in the first leg, PSG won 59.3% of them on Wednesday. Michael Olise won 11 of 21 ground duels in the first leg (52.4%), but seven of 18 in Munich (38.9%); it says something about the standards he's established that he finished with four shots (0.41 xG), two chances created, 13 progressive carries and nine progressive passes and still seemed like he had a horrible night. But it really did seem that way!
Meanwhile, the duo of Aleksandar Pavlovic and Konrad Laimer was dynamite in the ground duels department last week (7-for-11 between them), but was toast in the second leg (2-for-11). PSG left back Nuno Mendes -- 6-for-13 in the first leg, 8-for-10 in the second -- was particularly sharp for all of his 85 minutes to such a degree that it was easy to forget that his battery mate, right back Achraf Hakimi, was out with a hamstring injury.
Once up two goals on aggregate, PSG appeared happy to allow Bayern to tilt the field and control the action. This approach backfired in the first leg, when a 5-2 PSG lead quickly turned to 5-4, but Bayern just couldn't put together the types of finishing connections that they found last week in Paris. Instead, they attempted mostly low-percentage shots and hoped that PSG's defense, playing far more without the ball than it typically does, would break down.
Didn't happen.
Bayern were on the wrong side of a couple of handball controversies -- a bitter pill to swallow after the controversial handball penalty that went against them in Paris -- but they just couldn't regain their touch or break down PSG. Harry Kane scored in stoppage time, but PSG advanced.
Why Arsenal will win: Clear roles (and good health?)
Saka, Odegaard and forward Kai Havertz have long been important to Arsenal's success, and that's been no different in 2025-26. In fact, the Gunners have a perfect record this season when all three of them see the pitch.
Of course, it has happened only three times. They beat Manchester United in August, Chelsea in January and Newcastle in April; those are the only times that there was no overlap between the lengthy absences for Havertz (who's played only 835 minutes in all competitions) and Odegaard (1,805 minutes) and the nagging hamstring, hip and Achilles issues that have randomly sidelined Saka (3,002 minutes).
Julien Laurens praises Paris Saint-Germain for "doing everything perfectly" in their Champions League semifinal win over Bayern Munich.
Saka's brilliance should probably go without saying at this point. Even this season, when he's eighth on the team in minutes in all competitions, he's still first in shots on goal (46), total ground duels (375) and fouls suffered (68, 22 in the attacking third), second in goals (11) and third in assists (six). It was fitting that he scored Tuesday's finals-clinching goal considering what he's meant to the club.
However, the other two have been almost as instrumental. Since his permanent arrival with the club in 2021-22, Odegaard is first on the team in progressive passes (1,625 in all competitions), second behind only Saka in assists (40) and chances created (80) and third in goals (40); he's also second in ball recoveries (806) and first in recoveries in the attacking third (196). He is the team's primary creative outlet and a willing presser.
Meanwhile, since his arrival in 2023, it's Havertz who is second behind Saka in goals (34); he's also first in high-quality shot attempts (0.2 xG or higher) and total aerial attempts. When he's healthy, he provides the physical presence Odegaard gave Arsenal against Atletico, and despite mediocre to average finishing, he drives up both the team's shot quality and shot quantity numbers (especially against higher-quality opponents).
Arsenal have survived these issues to still reach the doorstep of their most special season -- in addition to this Champions League final berth, they now have two points in hand over Manchester City with three matches to go in the Premier League race. This proves that the club's relentless, long-term work in building depth is finally paying off. But it's when Saka, Odegaard and Havertz are all available (and things are certainly trending in that direction) that the roles in Arteta's system can be properly fulfilled.
Center backs William Saliba and Gabriel are the relentless interventionists, with Rice available to sweep up any other messes required. Rice and Martín Zubimendi shuttle the ball into the attacking third, where Odegaard is counted on to provide a creative spark. The ball eventually flows to Saka, Arsenal's version of Mohamed Salah, and when all else fails, Arsenal can force a corner kick (potentially headed in by Gabriel) or cross the ball toward Havertz's head.
The system has worked without these specific pieces -- Arsenal were the best team in the world all fall and winter, after all -- but with these players playing these specific roles, the Gunners can beat anyone. Even the defending European champs.
Why PSG will win: Undying confidence (and, perhaps, fresher legs)
One of my favorite soccer terms -- something I should really work to incorporate more into (American) football writing -- is class. Over 180 minutes in the semifinals, Bayern created more high-quality opportunities and even overachieved in turning 4.5 xG into five goals. But when they handed PSG any sort of opening, PSG ruthlessly exploited it. Again, they needed shots worth only 2.9 xG to score six goals; they turned decent scoring opportunities into guarantees. They had class in front of goal, and they're in the finals because of it.
Craig Burley reacts to PSG's progression to the Champions League final after eliminating Bayern Munich.
The best reason to assume that PSG will beat Arsenal is that PSG have Kvaratskhelia and Dembele, and Arsenal don't. But it goes beyond that: To the extent that class and pure proof of concept matter, PSG have all they need. They still have 10 of the 11 players who started in last season's Champions League final romp over Inter -- nine, if Hakimi's hamstring injury keeps him out -- and that includes a player I didn't even mention above: Désiré Doué, who earned player-of-the-match honors in last year's final, and who seemed to have the freshest legs on the pitch in Munich on Wednesday.
The run-up to this match will feature lots of questions about Arsenal -- can they meet the moment in their first Champions League final in 20 years? Can they maintain their edge despite the distractions of their epic Premier League title race? Can all the right guys stay healthy for the first time all season? -- but it's impossible to have any questions about PSG. They wobbled at times this season, but when it was time to shift into fifth gear this spring, they did so.
We also know who holds the edge in the fresh legs department, if that ends up mattering. Granted, Odegaard and Havertz haven't played major minutes this season -- which could turn out to be beneficial for Arsenal if they're full-strength and ready to play 90-plus minutes in three weeks -- but in all competitions this season, Arsenal's players have put in far more miles.
Arsenal players have logged 10 of the top 13 totals in minutes played. Granted, we can manipulate these figures by including last summer's FIFA Club World Cup minutes; do that, and PSG's Vitinha shoots to the top of the minutes list among outfielders, and fellow midfielder Warren Zaïre-Emery crosses the 4,000-minute mark. But even then, Arsenal would still have seven of the top 10 totals.
Due to injuries and planned squad rotation, Luis Enrique has limited the minutes for basically everyone besides Vitinha, Zaire-Emery and center-back Willian Pacho (who was also tremendous on Wednesday). Nuno Mendes only recently topped 3,000 minutes including the Club World Cup, and none of Kvaratskhelia, Doue, Dembele or Bradley Barcola have done so yet.
The high-mileage guys could be the keys, though. If Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, João Neves and the PSG midfield can make life hard on Rice in particular, PSG could control the ball and the scoring opportunities.
Gab Marcotti gives his thoughts on Arteta's decision to drop Martin Zubimendi for Myles Lewis-Skelly against Atletico Madrid.
In the semifinals against Atletico, Rice had 29 progressive carries, and no other Arsenal player topped 10. Rice had 18 progressive passes, and Saliba was the only other player with more than nine. Rice's total carry distance was 776 meters, and no one else topped 300. Hell, Rice even blocked the most shots and both attempted and made the most tackles. Rice has done more running and sprinting than basically anyone else in the sport in 2025-26, and he won't exactly get much time off in the coming weeks, with the Premier League chase going down to the wire.
PSG's goal will be to make anyone besides Rice carry the water for this Arsenal attack. Maybe someone like Zubimendi will come up big, or maybe Rice will simply prove too capable for even PSG's midfield. But PSG's midfield doesn't lose too many battles. When it matters, PSG doesn't lose many battles, period.
Finals prediction: PSG 2, Arsenal 1
Current Opta rankings: Arsenal second, PSG fourth
Current Club Elo rankings: Arsenal first, PSG fifth
Points per game over the last two months: PSG 2.42, Arsenal 1.71
xG differential per game over the last two months: PSG +0.99, Arsenal +0.55
Current Opta title odds: Arsenal 54.6%, PSG 45.4%
Current DraftKings odds (implied): PSG 56.5%, Arsenal 43.5%
Current injury concerns: DF Achraf Hakimi (PSG, hamstring), MF Mikel Merino (Arsenal, foot)
In four knockout matches against Chelsea and Liverpool this spring, PSG won by a combined 12-2. They just outlasted Bayern, the top-ranked team in Opta's power rankings. Arsenal have undoubtedly been the better team over the last nine months, but it's hard to make the case that anyone is better than PSG right now.
Granted, last year's Club World Cup final -- a shocking 3-0 Chelsea trouncing of PSG -- proved that in a one-match situation, anything can happen and anyone can have the fresher team or better game plan. But for as impressive as this season has been for Arsenal, it's really hard to pick against the champs.
