As the World Cup arrives in the U.S., a controversial wager that has been frequently targeted by match-fixers and banned in many jurisdictions remains on the books in some states.
Yellow cards have been at the center of gambling schemes investigated in recent years by top leagues in Australia, Europe and the U.S. Some of the investigations resulted in criminal charges and lifetime bans, while a high-profile case in the English Premier League disrupted a potential multimillion-dollar transfer for a player later cleared of deliberately drawing yellow cards to benefit bettors.
"It's the easiest market to manipulate of them all," a veteran international betting consultant told ESPN.
Despite fears of manipulation, at least three states -- Mississippi, New Jersey and Oregon -- plan to allow sportsbooks to offer betting on yellow cards during the World Cup.
Bets on yellow cards and other micro-moments such as corners and throw-ins, sometimes referred to as secondary markets or spot bets, have been popular with bettors for years and are often included in parlay bets, experts say. Secondary markets attracted around $70 billion in stakes in 2024, according to an analysis by the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA), a firm that monitors global sports betting.
"To put that in perspective, it is larger than the total amount wagered on any other sports globally, except for basketball and American football," the IBIA found.
H2 Gambling Capital, a London-based consultant firm, estimates $60 billion will be bet on the World Cup at regulated sportsbooks globally, with roughly 10% wagered on markets not determined by the final score, such as yellow cards. The $60 billion figure is a 71% increase from the company's estimate for the 2022 tournament. The expected growth accounts for the expansion of the World Cup field, from 32 to 48 teams, resulting in 40 more matches.
Some stakeholders say the expanded field includes players from smaller countries who may not be as well compensated and, therefore, are more susceptible to a bribe in exchange for intentionally drawing a yellow card, for example. Others believe the global scrutiny on the World Cup could deter match-fixers.
"Yellow cards are responsible for a meaningful amount of soccer integrity alerts," H2 Gambling Capital managing director Ed Birkin told ESPN. "Just from common sense, it's pretty obvious it's easier to manipulate causing a yellow card than it is to win or lose a match. And quite frankly, if you were being paid to do something like that, it's going to be easier to bribe someone to get a yellow card than to try and persuade their whole team to lose."
Secondary markets were involved in roughly 10% of suspicious betting alerts on soccer sent by the IBIA from 2017-23, according to the company.
This spring, MLS banned Derrick Jones and Yaw Yeboah of the Columbus Crew for alleged gambling violations, accusing both players of betting on Jones to draw a yellow card during an Oct. 19, 2025, match against the New York Red Bulls. Jones was booked in the 35th minute after committing a foul.
In a 2023 letter to state gambling regulators, MLS commissioner Don Garber wrote that wagers on yellow and red cards "pose integrity concerns in contravention of public policy goals."
"Unlike wagers offered on the result of a match or whether a player will score a goal, wagers on yellow cards and red cards are more susceptible to manipulation because a single player can more easily control the outcome of the wager," Garber stated in the letter.
MLS's request led multiple states to halt card markets, and more than two dozen have since implemented statutes that prohibit betting on anything related to penalties or fouls.
Johnny Avello, sportsbook director for DraftKings, confirmed to ESPN that the sportsbook would be offering betting on yellow cards for the World Cup in the states where it is permitted. New Jersey confirmed it will offer yellow card betting for the World Cup.
A spokesperson for the Oregon Lottery, which oversees sports betting in the state, told ESPN in an email that the state will offer betting on yellow cards in the World Cup even though it does not allow such wagers on MLS matches, at the league's request. "At this time, no concerns have been identified within the Oregon offering," the spokesperson said. "The Lottery will continue to actively monitor activity and adjust if needed."
A spokesperson for the Mississippi Gaming Commission told ESPN it also does not offer yellow card betting on MLS games at the league's request, but will allow the wagers for the World Cup. "If integrity concerns were brought to our attention by FIFA in regards to the World Cup, we would review their request and possibly implement changes," the spokesperson said.
Internationally, Germany, Portugal and Sweden are among the countries that prohibit betting on yellow and red cards at regulated sportsbooks, but the markets are offered in many other places, including the United Kingdom, despite reported objections from the Football Association, the sport's governing body.
The FA has conducted multiple investigations into yellow card bets in recent years. It issued multiyear bans for two players from the lower divisions for getting deliberately booked in betting schemes in 2018 and 2022.
In the most high-profile case, Brazil midfielder Lucas Paqueta was cleared of match-fixing charges after a two-year investigation into whether he deliberately received four yellow cards while playing for West Ham in the English Premier League in 2022 and 2023. The FA opened its investigation into Paqueta as he was negotiating a transfer to Manchester City, which never came to fruition. Paqueta denied participating in any scheme and an independent regulatory commission ultimately ruled that the FA's evidence was insufficient.
"It's ridiculous to have your life and career affected for two years without any psychological support from the federation," Paqueta, who is in Brazil's World Cup squad, wrote on social media about the investigation.
In 2025, three players in Australia's A-League admitted to deliberately earning yellow cards in exchange for $10,000 as part of a betting scheme allegedly tied to Colombian organized crime. Authorities said 50 bets were placed on the players' team to receive at least four cards during a match on Dec. 9, 2023. The bettors won more than $200,000 after the players picked up yellow cards for shoving an opponent in the chest, making a poor tackle and delaying the game by kicking the ball away during a stoppage.
Team captain Ulises Davila, the alleged ringleader of the scheme, was convicted on charges related to corrupting a betting outcome on an event. All three players were fined but did not receive prison sentences.
In the wake of the scandal, the players' union in Australia called for betting on yellow cards to be banned and for increased education for players.
"We need to look at how damaging this has been to the sport and can we have confidence that we can design a new system that will negate those risks," Beau Busch, CEO of Professional Footballers Australia, told media outlet ABC.net.
However, experts are mixed about the effectiveness of banning betting markets in curbing match-fixing because of their availability offshore. An IBIA report found that local prohibitions on betting markets, including cards, did not stop attempts to fix games in those locations.
"The vast majority (90%) of those suspicious bets were placed outside of the jurisdiction where the potentially corrupted sporting event took place, and any regulatory framework potentially restricting such bets," the report states. "There is no evidence that restricting or prohibiting particular types of bets within a jurisdiction's regulated market serves to deter corrupters from manipulating sporting events."
The availability of such bets offshore is one reason Birkin believes states should allow sportsbooks to offer yellow card betting, where it can be taxed and regulated.
"I think [yellow card betting markets] should be allowed, and I think it should be through legal bookmakers," Birkin said. "But they are going to continue to cause some controversy, especially in a global thing like the World Cup, where all eyes are on it."
FIFA employs an Integrity Task Force made up of leading betting monitoring agencies, including the IBIA. The task force met in Miami in May to discuss procedures for the World Cup. FIFA's rules forbid players and personnel from "being involved in the manipulation of football matches and competitions." FIFA did not respond to questions related to its stance on yellow card betting.
As the World Cup nears, sources familiar with the U.S. market say suspicious betting on yellow cards has decreased in recent seasons, potentially due to deterrence from high-profile cases and reduced availability. But few experts believe the World Cup is immune to attempts at corruption, and the debate continues over whether the legal betting market should even offer bets so ripe for manipulation.
"Would it surprise me if there's some controversy about this in the World Cup?" Birkin said. "Not one bit."
ESPN researcher John Mastroberardino contributed to this story.
