Will England or Argentina reach the World Cup final? What stats, charts say

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Have Argentina had the easiest route to the World Cup semifinals? (1:49)

It's the fixture that plenty had circled since the World Cup draw all the way back in December set England and Argentina on a likely collision course, and now after a dramatic pair of quarterfinals, the meeting has been set.

It's arguably England's biggest match since the 1966 final, owing to the extra prestige that the World Cup brings in comparison to a European Championship, as well as the Lionel Messi factor.

For Argentina, it's a chance to reach a second successive final by landing a knockout blow on a traditional rival in a fixture that tends to come around once in a generation.

The usually reliable Opta supercomputer has England as very slight favourites heading into Wednesday's titanic clash in Atlanta, but what might decide the match in one team's favour?


Why England will beat Argentina and reach the World Cup final

Watching England at this tournament hasn't been for the faint hearted. As thrilling as the victories have been, Thomas Tuchel's team have often had to win their matches the hard way.

One thing England have excelled at, though, is creating 'big chances' -- something Opta define as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score."

Whether it be Harry Kane's headers or Jude Bellingham's first-time finishes, England are consistently providing their attackers with presentable chances in dangerous positions.

If they can continue that trend against what has been a somewhat leaky Argentina defence, you'd fancy Kane and/or Bellingham to punish La Albiceleste.

While England have been heavily reliant on Kane and Bellingham -- the pair have scored all but one of the team's goals during their run to the last four -- they do at least boast two proven difference makers in attack at this tournament.

It's difficult to argue against Kane having been the most potent forward in world football over the past year and he has delivered for England at this World Cup with six goals and one assist. That tally was equalled by Bellingham in the early hours of Sunday morning as the Real Madrid man scored twice to send England through at Norway's expense.

Both players' tournaments have enjoyed remarkable campaigns, with Kane becoming England's all-time leading goalscorer in World Cups, and Bellingham becoming the second-youngest player to score 2+ goals in consecutive World Cup knockout-stage matches, behind only Pelé in 1958.

Argentina, meanwhile, are heavily reliant on Messi and, while he has proven his world-beating abilities once again in North America, you feel that if England can stop him from finding the back of the net, then Argentina might need the sort of strike produced by Julián Álvarez against Switzerland to get on the scoresheet.

When the knockout stage bracket was set after the end of the group stage, it seemed almost unfathomable that Argentina wouldn't cruise to the last four.

After all, Messi had laid waste to their group-stage opponents, scoring six goals as Lionel Scaloni's team made the perfect start to their bid to go back-to-back.

But Argentina's knockout stage struggles -- they needed extra time to beat Cape Verde and Switzerland and a stunning late comeback to squeeze past Egypt -- are made all the more stark by the fact they have so far avoided facing some of the better teams in the tournament.

In fact, this Argentina side is the first to have reached the last four of a World Cup without playing an opponent ranked among the top 15 teams entering the tournament.

Their ability to deal with a team of England's quality, therefore, is a total unknown and Argentina's struggles to put away the likes of Cape Verde means the signs aren't encouraging for Scaloni's men.

- Olley: England's grit to overcome adversity at this World Cup has them believing again



Why Argentina will beat England and reach the World Cup final

One thing England cannot match is Argentina's record in the latter stages of a World Cup.

La Albiceleste are at home in the pressure cooker of a semifinal -- they've won the tournament three times after all. England, by comparison, haven't reached the final since they won it on home soil in 1966.

In fact, Argentina have tasted victory eight times more than England in World Cup knockout stage matches. To bridge that gap, England would have to reach the next two finals (excluding the current tournament) with Argentina failing to make it beyond the group stage.

While this England team has slayed a few demons in recent years -- they won their first penalty shoot-out in 2018 and earned a statement victory in foreign lands for the first time against Mexico last week, for example -- but to reach a first final in 60 years by beating the holders will require them to defy history.

- Argentina scouting report: How can England stop Lionel Messi and Co.?

If England are to end their 60 years of hurt, they'll have to inflict a defeat that will likely spell the end of Messi's World Cup journey.

After a painful first four tournaments which included a defeat in the 2014 final, Messi finally lifted the World Cup in Qatar four years ago, and now aged 39, he is attempting to repeat the feat.

Remarkably, he is this tournament's joint-leading scorer with Kylian Mbappé, and the pair have both leapfrogged Miroslav Klose to occupy the top two spots on the World Cup's all-time scoring charts.

Messi remains one ahead of the Frenchman who is preparing for his own team's semifinal against Spain on the other side of the bracket.

When the best player of all time is on the other team, an England victory is always going to feel like a tall order.

While they haven't quite convinced since the group stage, the raw numbers point to Argentina having the most lethal attack in the tournament.

France are rightly recognised as having the competition's best forward line -- they have registered by far the highest total xG of any team in the tournament (14.3xG) and their average of 7.8 shots on target per game is the highest on record since 1966. But Argentina have found the back of the net 17 times in North America -- one more than France.

While the calibre of Argentina's opponents at this tournament so far must be taken into account, their attacking exploits have seen them become the first team in history to score 2+ goals in 12 consecutive World Cup matches, dating back to 2022.

On their way to beating the previous high-water mark set by Uruguay between 1930 and 1954, Argentina have consistently outperformed their xG. With Messi and Álvarez proving deadly from range in this tournament, La Albiceleste might only need a half-chance to put the game beyond Kane and Co.

It doesn't bode well for an England team that has often looked shaky at the back during their progress to the last four.



How did England and Argentina get here?

Group stage

Argentina looked in formidable form as they topped Group K without really breaking a sweat. Messi's hat trick got them off to the perfect start in a 3-0 win over Algeria. He ended the group stage with six goals as Argentina sailed through to the knockout stage with a perfect record and only one goal conceded.

England, meanwhile, had to work a little harder to finish top of Group L. They started encouragingly enough, beating Croatia 4-2 in a thrilling opener, but a frustrating 0-0 draw with Ghana punctured their early tournament optimism.

Tuchel's team overcame Panama in their final group game to finish one point ahead of second-placed Croatia.

Knockout stage

Argentina were handed a favourable-looking path to the semifinal stage, but have ended up making hard work of their route here.

They needed an extra time winner to beat the island nation of Cape Verde in the round of 32, before mounting a stunning late comeback to squeeze past Egypt.

Things didn't get much easier in their quarterfinal against Switzerland, where Álvarez's stunning goal sent Argentina through in extra time once again.

England have also earned some battle scars in reaching the last four. A late brace from Kane saw them avoid an almighty upset against Congo DR in the round of 32, before they delivered one of the country's all-time great wins against Mexico at the Azteca a few days later.

Tuchel's team were favourites to get past an impressive Norway side in their quarterfinal meeting, but it needed an extra time winner from Bellingham to set up England's showdown with Argentina in the last four.

Information from ESPN's Global Sports Research contributed to this story.

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