We have officially entered a new era of the Premier League, and nothing sums it up better than the following:
• The number of current Premier League managers who were born in a 700,000-person province in the autonomous Basque region of northern Spain called Gipuzkoa: four.
• The number of current Premier League managers who have won the Premier League before: one.
• The number of current Premier League managers who have won the Premier League before but weren't born in a 700,000-person province in the autonomous Basque region of northern Spain called Gipuzkoa: zero.
After three straight years of second-place finishes, Arsenal and manager Mikel Arteta finally got over the hump. Pep Guardiola finally left Manchester City after managing the team to six Premier League titles, and Liverpool shockingly fired Arne Slot, just a year after he led them to win the Premier League.
The Gunners are the favorites to repeat, but beyond that? It's anyone's guess.
Manchester United are managed by a guy with just 19 Premier League matches under his belt. Chelsea are on their fourth manager in less than a year, and one of the guys they fired is now managing Manchester City. Liverpool seem more focused on selling part of the team to Jeff Bezos & Co. than building a coherent team. Tottenham have finished 17th in each of the past two seasons. Newcastle have theoretically unlimited wealth, but they, and fellow top-four gate-crasher Aston Villa, just got rid of all of their best players.
With all of that uncertainty humming around us, Bill Connelly and Ryan O'Hanlon are back again with their 20-team mega-preview ahead of the 2026-27 season. As always, they've each predicted what the standings will look like at the end of season, averaged their predictions together, and produced one joint mega-prediction.
What will happen this season? And what changed over the summer so that it won't be a repeat of last season? Read on to find out.
(Note: All transfer values come from Transfermarkt.)
1. Arsenal
Last season's finish: first (85 points, plus-44 goal differential)
Key ins: CM Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle United, €87.50 million), CB Piero Hincapié (Bayer Leverkusen, €49.00 million), LW Christos Tzolis (Club Brugge, €40.00 million), GK Illan Meslier (Leeds United, free)
Key outs: LW Leandro Trossard (Besiktas, €18.00 million), CB Jakub Kiwior (Porto, €17.00 million), DM Christian Nørgaard (Everton, €8.15 million), GK Karl Hein (Werder Bremen, €3.00 million)
Key stat
Ever since Declan Rice joined from West Ham in the summer of 2023, Arsenal's defense has been in another league, almost on another planet, from everyone else in the Premier League. Here's how Mikel Arteta's side stacks up with the rest of the ever-present Premier League sides over the past three seasons:
There's a gap of about 37 xG (expected goals) between Arsenal in first and Manchester City in second. There's also a gap of about 37 xG between City in second and Fulham ... in 12th.
One big question: How healthy will Arsenal be?
Manchester City first lost Pep Guardiola and now Rodri. Manchester United haven't finished higher than third in eight years. Liverpool have a new coach and no new defenders besides a loan for Ronald Araujo. Chelsea have a new coach and just finished in 10th.
Arsenal, meanwhile, just won the league, lost the Champions League final on penalties, signed one of the best midfielders in the Premier League and have a super-deep roster of players almost exclusively in their prime years.
So, what might stop them? Outside of a sudden reinterpretation around set piece physicality by the league's referees, it's hard to think of anything -- other than injuries.
The Gunners' three most important players all have varying degrees of broken-down bodies. Bukayo Saka was playing with an Achilles injury throughout the World Cup, while Declan Rice dealt with back and hamstring injuries that were strangely described as "terrible" and "[not] an injury" by England manager Thomas Tuchel. William Saliba, meanwhile, injured an already-injured back in the semifinals and is expected to miss a couple months. Not to mention, Jurriën Timber missed the World Cup entirely and will be out for at least the start of the season.
If you take away all of their best players, will Arsenal still be the best team in the Premier League? --Ryan O'Hanlon
2. Manchester City
Last season's finish: second (78 points (+42 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Enzo Maresca, CM Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest, €135 million), LW Mathys Detourbet (Troyes, €25 million), LW Jeremy Monga (Leicester City, €11.7 million)
Key outs: Manager Pep Guardiola, DM Rodri (Barcelona, €76.5 million), GK James Trafford (Leeds United, €46.7 million), CB Manuel Akanji (Inter Milan, €15 million), CB Nathan Aké (Fenerbahce, €8.2 million), AM Bernardo Silva (Real Madrid, free transfer), CB John Stones (Inter Milan, free transfer)
Key stat
City have won 38 major trophies in their history. Twenty of them -- over half! -- were earned with Pep Guardiola in charge.
Granted, you could also spin that to note that 26 of those came since City Football Group took over the club, and they're still in charge even after a manager change. But Guardiola quite literally rewrote the City history book, and it's awfully difficult to figure out how to set an appropriate bar now that he has handed the reins to Enzo Maresca.
One big question: Where do City go from here?
You can paint two completely different pictures if you focus on who City have versus who they don't.
On one hand, they've not only lost Guardiola, but they've also lost Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, longtime talisman Bernardo Silva and a good percentage of their defensive veterans. Considering their (impossibly high) previous form fell off a bit over the last two seasons before all these losses, you could certainly envision a City fall in the post-Pep era.
On the other hand, have you seen who's still on their roster?
Erling Haaland is still just about the best pure goal scorer on the planet, goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma might be the best pure shot-stopper, new midfielder Elliot Anderson is already one of the best pivot men in the Premier League, Rayan Cherki is a terrifying chance creator, Antoine Semenyo and Jérémy Doku are impossibly dangerous wingers, Nico O'Reilly and Abdukodir Khusanov are two of the best 22-and-under defenders in the world, center back Marc Guéhi is one of the league's best, and Phil Foden is a onetime Premier League player of the year.
Everyone in the above paragraph is 27 or younger -- and we haven't even mentioned potential midfield additions Ayyoub Bouaddi and/or Enzo Fernández before the transfer window closes yet.
City still have one of the most talented rosters in the world, and even if there's an awkward transition period in moving to Maresca -- and pretty much everything about Sunday's Community Shield loss to Arsenal screamed "AWKWARD TRANSITION" -- this lineup could easily still give Arsenal their biggest challenge over 38 matches. --Bill Connelly
3. Chelsea
Last season's finish: 10th (52 points, +6 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Xabi Alonso, AM Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa, €138 million), CB Maxence Lacroix (Crystal Palace, €60.7 million), RB Marco Palestra (Atalanta, €57 million), RW Geovany Quenda (Sporting CP, €50 million), CM Valentín Barco (Strasbourg, €40 million), CF Emmanuel Emegha (Strasbourg, €25 million), LB Pep Chavarría (Rayo Vallecano, €19 million), CF Danny Welbeck (Brighton, €5.9 million), CM Jordan Henderson (Brentford, free transfer)
Key outs: DM Andrey Santos (Manchester United, €56.3 million), LB Marc Cucurella (Real Madrid, €55 million), CB Trevoh Chalabah (Como, €30 million), LW Tyrique George (Everton, €21 million)
Key stat
Since BlueCo took over Chelsea ownership in the spring of 2022, they have spent an average of €417 million per season in transfer fees; so far, that's bought them finishes of 12th, sixth, fourth and 10th. They were spectacularly unlucky last season -- fourth in xG differential, but 10th in the table -- but the spending-to-results ratio has been utterly hapless.
And yet, we're picking them third this season. That's what happens when you (a) hire the right manager for the job, (b) avoid European play and (c) throw another €339 million at your problems over the summer.
One big question: Can Xabi Alonso craft something cohesive?
In adding veterans Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson, Chelsea earned a lot of positive headlines about learning their lessons after fielding countless squads that were far too young and far too devoid of leadership. We probably shouldn't go overboard in that regard, since they also spent a positively ridiculous sum of money on Morgan Rogers a season after he overachieved statistically (he had 25 goals and assists in all competitions for Aston Villa, but they came from just 17.8 combined xG and xA), and they still brought in another five players aged 22 or younger.
Still, few managers are more respected than Xabi Alonso, and unlike during his time at Real Madrid, he's now in charge of a roster loaded with players who should be young and hungry enough to actually run and press.
Now, though, not only is he in charge of a roster that is loaded as mentioned, but one that also features Henderson and Welbeck, a couple of respected veterans coming off solid seasons. The squad is as bloated as ever, and some of its best players are coming off of poor seasons, but it still has Cole Palmer, Rogers, Joao Pedro, Welbeck, Pedro Neto and tantalizing teenagers Estevao and Geovany Quenda in attack. It still has Moises Caicedo, newcomer Valentin Barco, Henderson, Romeo Lavia and -- for now, at least -- Enzo Fernandez in midfield. It still has Reece James (when healthy), Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill and countless others in defense.
The talent is undeniable, and if Alonso can't make something of it, no one can, especially in a season without European play. --Connelly
4. Liverpool
Last season's finish: fifth (60 points, plus-10 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Andoni Iraola, CB Jérémy Jacquet (Stade Rennais, €63.60 million), LW Víctor Muñoz (CA Osasuna, €40.00 million), CB Ronald Araújo (Barcelona, loan)
Key outs: Manager Arne Slot, CB Ibrahima Konaté (Real Madrid, free), RW Mohamed Salah (Trabzonspor, free), LB Andrew Robertson (Tottenham, free)
Key stat
A simple way to measure the intensity of a team's pressing approach is through passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA). The stat, essentially, looks at the number of passes a team allows in their attacking half for every defensive action they attempt.
The lower the number, the more aggressive the press, and Liverpool's number was the highest it has been in eight years last season:
Of course, they won the league in 2018-19 with a higher PPDA than they produced last season, but the declining intensity coupled with the decline in results seems to be the main reason the club decided to fire Arne Slot and replace him with Andoni Iraola.
One big question: Can Andoni Iraola make the pieces fit?
One way I've heard the best managers described to me by analytically inclined decision-makers is not as the people with the best ideas or smartest philosophies about how the game should be played but rather as the people who can look at any collection of talent and figure out how to make it work best together. In other words, they want coaches who allow them to identify and acquire whatever undervalued talent is out there.
While you wouldn't call Alexander Isak's transfer fee "undervalued" by even the loosest definition of the word, Liverpool clearly acquired whoever they thought were the best available players last summer, regardless of fit. How else to explain spending $200-million-plus on two quite similar strikers in Isak and Hugo Ekitike?
Slot was unable to find the right combination of players for any consistent period of time last season. Iraola did exactly that season after season after Bournemouth kept getting rid of his best players, but can he do it with a team that expects to be challenging for Premier and Champions League trophies every season? --O'Hanlon
5. Manchester United
Last season's finish: third (71 points, +19 goal differential)
Key ins: DM Andrey Santos (Chelsea, €56.3 million), CM Youri Tielemans (Aston Villa, €41 million)
Key outs: CF Rasmus Højlund (Napoli, €44 million), DM Casemiro (Inter Miami, free transfer)
Key stat
You can officially see whatever you want from Michael Carrick's stint as Manchester United's manager last season.
• Before Carrick's hire, United ranked sixth in points per game but third in xG differential
• Under Carrick, they rose to first in points per game ... and fell to fifth in xG differential
Carrick engineered undeniably sound play and got the absolute most from star Bruno Fernandes, who produced 13 of his league-record 21 assists in Carrick's 17 matches. But the team also enjoyed a torrid level of finishing -- 33 goals from shots worth 26.9 xG (Matheus Cunha and Casemiro had 11 goals from shots worth 4.5) -- that they almost certainly won't sustain.
Just as Chelsea took on spectacularly poor fortune when the calendar flipped to 2026, Manchester United's fortune was all positive. It was virtually perfect content for the narrative generation machine that this club tends to be.
One big question: Is this squad deep (and young) enough?
Fernandes (31), left back Luke Shaw (31), center-back Harry Maguire (33) and Casemiro (34) were all among the top six in minutes played under Carrick; Carrick did figure out a proper role for 21-year-old midfielder Kobbie Mainoo, but he leaned heavily on age and experience.
Casemiro has aged out (and went to Inter Miami), but Carrick will again be asking a lot of those remaining veterans, and they'll be adding at least eight Champions League matches to the fixture list. Mainoo and newcomer Andrey Santos (22) will log major minutes, while other younger players like defenders Leny Yoro (20) and Ayden Heaven (19) and wingers Patrick Dorgu (21) and Shea Lacey (19) could be asked to provide sturdy depth. But this could still be a pretty old squad. (Shaw certainly looked his age in the preseason.)
Tielemans was the primary summer addition: He's 29 and has started more than 21 league matches just once in the past three seasons. Meanwhile, Marcus Rashford (28) has returned from loan, and Carrick gave Mason Mount (27) a lot of midfield minutes in the preseason. What happens if the older players suffer a run of injuries? What happens when the finishing evens out? --Connelly
6. Brighton
Last season's finish: ninth (53 points, +3 goal differential)
Key ins: CB Luka Vuskovic (Tottenham Hotspur, €54 million), RW Zadok Yohanna (AIJ, €28 million), CB Pascal Struijk (Leeds, €23.2 million), RB Costinha (Olympiacos, €12.7 million)
Key outs: CB Jan Paul van Hecke (Tottenham Hotspur, €60 million), GK Carl Rushworth (Coventry City, €25.7 million), CB Diego Coppola (Paris FC, €17.5 million), CF Danny Welbeck (Chelsea, €5.9 million)
Key stat
No one forced more high turnovers than Brighton in 2025-26 (12.4 per game), and no one scored more goals from them (23) either.
Brighton allowed the lowest PPDA in the league (9.95 passes per defensive action). The press was their best attacker, and after a midseason funk dropped them to 14th in the table, Fabian Hurzeler doubled down on pressure and steady ball progression -- primarily by installing Pascal Gross (back from Borussia Dortmund) in defensive midfield and penciling central attacking midfielder (and general chaos agent) Jack Hinshelwood into the lineup -- and was rewarded: Over the final 12 matchdays, Brighton averaged 1.83 points per game (fourth in the league) and charged to seventh in the table. They'll play in the UEFA Conference League this season.
One big question: Do they have the depth (and scoring) for a season with European nights?
If the press was Brighton's best attacker, Danny Welbeck was second, and he's off to Chelsea. Among returnees, no one scored more than five league goals last season, and even with their spring surge, Brighton finished with only 52 goals, 10th most in the league. They must figure out how to generate more shot quality, and they'll have to do so while adding at least six Conference League matches to the docket.
Progression in the finishing department would help as outside of Welbeck, Brighton players scored just 38 goals from shots worth 45.5 xG. Their roster management and talent identification have been dynamite through the years, and we might find out that youngsters like Charalampos Kostoulas (19) and Stefanos Tzimas (20 and returning from an ACL tear) are ready to burst onto the scene like Hinshelwood (21) was last season. (They must hope that new 19-year-old defender Luka Vuskovic is as ready as they think, too.)
Brighton get the benefit of the doubt at this point, but they do have questions to answer. -- Connelly
7. Tottenham Hotspur
Last season's finish: 17th (41 points, minus-9 goal differential)
Key ins: DM Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United, €108.00 million), CM Mateus Fernandes (West Ham, €99.00 million), CB Jan Paul van Hecke (Brighton, €60.00 million), CB Marcos Senesi (Bournemouth, free), LB Andrew Robertson (Liverpool, free), GK Martin Dúbravka (Burnley, free)
Key outs: CB Luka Vuskovic (Brighton, €54.00 million), CF Will Lankshear (Middlesbrough, €11.70 million), CF Alejo Veliz (EC Bahia, €9.00 million), LW Manor Solomon (West Ham, €5.85 million), AM Alfie Devine (Preston, €5.30 million), CB Radu Drăgușin (Fiorentina, loan fee €1.50 million), RW Min-hyeok Yang (KVC Westerlo, loan), CB Cristian Romero (Atlético Madrid, fee TBD), DM Yves Bissouma (contract expired)
Key stat
Over the course of last season, Tottenham's adjusted goal differential (70% expected goals, 30% goals) was minus-0.3 -- the 16th-worst mark in the league and just slightly better than West Ham United in 18th.
But the performances were drastically different across their three different managers:
• Thomas Frank: minus-0.29
• Igor Tudor: minus-1.1
• Roberto De Zerbi: plus-0.24
It was only seven games, but Tottenham's level of performance under De Zerbi would've been right where we expect a team with Tottenham's resources to be over the course of the whole season: sixth-best in the league.
One big question: Are we sure Spurs are out of the woods?
Combine the performance under De Zerbi with the tons of money spent on Premier League-proven talent this summer, and everything should be good, right ... right?
There are two reasons Spurs fans shouldn't exhale just yet.
Reason one: Teams that spend the amount of money that Tottenham has this summer -- more than Real Madrid! -- tend to massively underperform the following season.
The simplest explanation? The transfer market is incredibly inefficient, and so if you're spending as much money as Tottenham have, you're spending more inefficient money than everyone else. Plus, the same people spending all that money: they're the ones who built the Tottenham team that finished 17th in each of the last two seasons.
Reason two: De Zerbi is one of the most chaotic and cantankerous managers in European soccer. He left Brighton on bad terms relating to their transfer strategy, and his Marseille tenure ended after the club decided that "it was clear that the relationship between the manager and the squad was broken."
How long will it last before something similar happens at Tottenham? --O'Hanlon
8. Brentford
Last season's finish: ninth (53 points, +3 goal differential)
Key ins: CM Mamadou Sangare (Lens, €48 million), CB Jannik Schuster (Salzburg, €18 million), LW Jaidon Anthony (Burnley, €17.5 million), CF Callum Wilson (West Ham, free transfer)
Key outs: CM Frank Onyeka (Coventry, €7 million), CM Jordan Henderson (Chelsea, free transfer)
Key stat
Premier League teams averaged 0.16 xG per shot attempt last season; Brentford averaged 0.20, highest in the league. They averaged the shortest shot distance (13.4 meters), attempted the highest percentage of shots in the box (75.6%), attempted the lowest percentage of shots with at least two defenders between shot and goal (72.5%) and put the highest percentage of shots on target (36.3%).
Granted, the tradeoff for high shot quality was low shot quantity -- they were 15th in shots per possession.
Still, no one took better shots than Igor Thiago (0.24 xG per shot, 0.18 without penalties), Kevin Schade (0.21, 0.20) and company. Their ever-reliable set-pieces-and-directness style produced. And this season, the Bees have added more talent than they lost as well.
One big question: Is this the year that their long, slow build pays off?
According to the estimated player values at Transfermarkt -- as good a source as any for such a thing -- Brentford had the No. 16 roster in the Premier League in its first two seasons, then inched up to 14th for the next two seasons and 13th last year. They finished higher than their talent ranking in four of those five years, but heading into 2026-27 they're up to 10th in player value.
With Thiago, Schade, right back Michael Kayode, center back Sepp van den Berg and others returning and midfielder Mamadou Sangare joining from Lens (who finished second in Ligue 1 last season), this could genuinely be the most talented Brentford squad that has ever existed. And Keith Andrews has thus far proved up to the task of managing this talent, too.
This club, famously led with analytics-heavy flair by owner and Smartodds founder Matthew Benham, has proved to be astute and impossibly patient. They all but qualified for Europe last season -- they were one point short of a Europa League berth, and they missed out on Brighton's Conference League spot because of a three-goal difference in goal differential. Is this the year patience pays off? --Connelly
T-9. Aston Villa
Last season's finish: fourth (65 points, plus-7 goal differential)
Key ins: AM Johan Manzambi (Freiburg, €60.00 million), CM João Gomes (Wolverhampton Wanderers, €40.00 million), CB Modou Kéba Cissé (LASK, €5.50 million), LW Alejandro Garnacho (Chelsea, loan)
Key outs: AM Morgan Rogers (Chelsea, €138.00 million), CM Youri Tielemans (Manchester United, €41.00 million), CF Donyell Malen (Roma, €25.00 million), DM Enzo Barrenechea (Benfica, €12.00 million), LW Lewis Dobbin (Southampton, €10.50 million), LB Lucas Digne (PSG, €7.00 million), RB Andrés García (Getafe, loan), GK Oliwier Zych (Vitória Guimarães, loan), GK Joe Gauci (Lincoln City, loan)
Key stat
Over the past three seasons, only Arsenal and Manchester City have a bigger gap between their actual goal differential and their expected goal differential than Aston Villa do: a plus-4.4 xG differential, compared to a plus-29 goal differential.
As such, Villa have won way more points than teams with their balance of chance creation and suppression typically do:
How much of that is luck? How much of it is the personnel? And how much of it is Unai Emery's tactics?
One big question: Can Villa handle all of the upheaval?
Villa's arguably four best players will be gone this season: Youri Tielemans, Lucas Digne and Morgan Rogers left via transfers, while Amadou Onana tore his ACL at the World Cup. Recent reports suggest that goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez could soon be on his way out before the end of the transfer window, too.
In a vacuum, all of those moves make sense: Digne and Tielemans have aged out of their primes, while Chelsea offered superstar money for Rogers, a player who hasn't come close to that level of performance yet. Martinez, too, turns 34 in a couple of weeks.
Villa don't have the revenue of the biggest clubs in the league, and the new squad-cost rules essentially require them to make all of these moves to avoid getting penalizes, but it's still so much talent to replace in one offseason. Plus, Ollie Watkins has led the team in goals for six straight seasons, and he turns 31 in December.
Add in the extra grind of Champions League matches, and this season should be Emery's biggest challenge yet. --O'Hanlon
T-9. Newcastle United
Last season's finish: 12th (49 points, minus-2 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Matthias Jaissle, LW Bazoumana Touré (Hoffenheim, €50.00 million), DM Aladji Bamba (Monaco, €35.50 million), GK Lukás Hornícek (Braga, €30.60 million), CM Sean Steur (Ajax, €23.50 million), GK Ewen Jaouen (Stade Reims, €21.50 million)
Key outs: Manager Eddie Howe, DM Sandro Tonali (Tottenham, €108.00 million), CM Bruno Guimarães (Arsenal, €87.50 million), LW Anthony Gordon (Barcelona, €70.00 million), LB Matt Targett (Hull City, free), RB Kieran Trippier (Wolverhampton Wanderers, free), AM Joe White (Crewe Alexandra, fee TBD), LB Alex Murphy (1. FC Kaiserslautern, loan), RB Harrison Ashby (Luton Town, loan), RB Emil Krafth (without club), GK John Ruddy (without club)
Key stat
Over the past four Premier League seasons, these are Newcastle's leaders across a number of key metrics:
• Goals: Alexander Isak
• Assists: Guimarães
• Passes into the penalty area: Trippier
• Successful dribbles: Guimarães
• Shots: Isak
• Expected assists: Trippier
• Expected goals: Isak
Anthony Gordon, meanwhile, ranks second in dribbles, shots and xG. He, along with the other three names listed above, no longer plays for Newcastle.
One big question: Do Newcastle know something we don't?
Newcastle have responded to losing several key players, along with Sandro Tonali to Tottenham, by signing five players with an average age of 20. The only one older than 20 is Hornícek, who is 24 and a goalkeeper, a position with a later age curve than all of the outfield roles.
Touré, Bamba and Steur -- the three outfield signings -- have looked promising to start their careers, but the latter two combined for 24 total starts in Ligue 1 and the Eredivisie last season, and Touré has one full Bundesliga season under his belt. There's a lot of risk in these deals, and more than €100 million combined is a lot to shell out for that level of uncertainty.
It has never been quite clear what the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia wants from Newcastle -- on the field, at least. Off the field, they get to be a member of the most popular sports leagues in the world. But after the departures of all the players we've mentioned -- along with manager Howe -- it seems like someone decided that this would be the year the club takes a step backward and tries to rebuild. --O'Hanlon
11. Bournemouth
Last season's finish: sixth (57 points, plus-4 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Marco Rose, CB António Silva (Benfica, €25 million), CF Álvaro Rodríguez (Elche, €25 million), RB Juanlu Sanchez (Sevilla, €11 million)
Key outs: Manager Andoni Iraola (Liverpool), LW Hamed Traoré (Marseille, €7.7 million), LW Luis Sinisterra (Cruzeiro, €3.7 million), CF Enes Ünal (Getafe, free transfer), CB Marcos Senesi (Tottenham Hotspur, free transfer)
Key stat
In a league with a possession count that gets lower every season, Bournemouth comfortably averaged the fastest tempo. They had the most possessions (89.9 per match), most ball recoveries (45.4), most shots from ball recoveries (25) and highest direct speed* (1.48 meters per second) in the league.
They nearly made the Champions League playing this way, and now-former manager Iraola has said he drew inspiration from the vertical attacking of Rose's old Borussia Monchengladbach teams. With Iraola off to Liverpool, Bournemouth quickly scooped up Rose, who spent the past year out of coaching after an up-and-down three seasons with RB Leipzig.
(* Direct speed: average meters per second that the ball advances toward the goal)
One big question: How do you move on from a run like Iraola's?
The general consensus from an analytics perspective is that very few managers make a sustained difference in soccer. Spending and luck tend to mean more over time. Good business and high-level talent identification can make up for a lack of spending, at least in the short term -- Bournemouth can certainly vouch for that -- but managers matter only so much.
It won't surprise anyone if Iraola is an exception. Bournemouth scaled to 12th, then ninth, then sixth in the league in three years with Iraola. Bournemouth! Bournemouth finished three points short of a Champions League berth! That's one of the cooler stories imaginable, and now Rose has to clear the highest possible bar.
By typical club standards, Bournemouth mostly kept the roster intact this offseason -- after losing five players worth transfer fees of €287.2 million before and during their best season ever -- but we're pretty quickly going to find out how much of the Cherries' success was based on the talent and how much was on a particularly special manager. -- Connelly
12. Nottingham Forest
Last season's finish: 16th (44 points, minus-3 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace), CB Ousmane Diomande (Sporting CP, €40 million), AM Gustavo Sá (Famalicao, €20 million), CM Xaver Schlager (RB Leipzig, free transfer)
Key outs: Manager Vitor Pereira, CM Elliot Anderson (Manchester City, €135 million)
Key stat
Nottingham Forest employed four different coaches during the 2025-26 season, and each one had a different playing style from the predecessor. And when the club finally found one who could steer the team to safety in the relegation hunt -- Pereira, under whom they lost only once in their last 10 league matches -- owner Evangelos Marinakis fired him over the summer, too, perhaps simply out of habit.
Despite this epic amount of self-imposed instability, Forest head into 2026-27 with a proven new manager (Glasner) and a lineup that still includes Morgan Gibbs-White in attack, stalwarts Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic at the back and plenty of intriguing talent and speed on the perimeter.
But the biggest potential accomplishment this year might be standing still, letting Glasner work and landing comfortably in the middle of the table.
One big question: How will the Forest midfield operate without Anderson?
Technically, Forest added more than they subtracted this summer, and grabbing defender Diomande seemed particularly astute.
But in losing Anderson to Man City, they've really lost a few players in one: In league play, he rather astonishingly managed to rank first on the team in chances created (54), passes received (1,819) and completed (2,039), progressive carries (281), progressive passes (362), total carry distance (8,839 meters), fouls suffered (80), ground duels (437), ground duels won (231) and crosses completed (51). He pushed the ball into dangerous areas and, with four goals and four assists, sometimes did more than that.
He was somehow also first on the team in tackles (104), blocked passes (50) and ball recoveries in the defending third (127), middle third (154) and attacking third (25). He went everywhere and did everything, and he leaves about three different sets of cleats for players such as Gibbs-White, Ibrahim Sangaré, Schlager and perhaps Nicolás Domínguez and Ryan Yates to fill. -- Connelly
13. Everton
Last season's finish: 13th (49 points, minus-3 goal differential)
Key ins: RW Brennan Johnson (Crystal Palace, €25.80 million), AM Merlin Röhl (Freiburg, €25.00 million), LW Tyrique George (Chelsea, €21.00 million), DM Hayden Hackney (Middlesbrough, €19.30 million), DM Christian Nørgaard (Arsenal, €8.15 million)
Key outs: LW Dwight McNeil (Crystal Palace, €25.80 million), DM Idrissa Gueye (Al-Diriyah, free), CM Tyler Onyango (Sheffield Wednesday, free), RB Séamus Coleman (contract expired)
Key stat
Over the past two seasons, new Everton signing Hackney led the Championship in line-breaking passes through the opposition midfield and through the opposition defense. In the Premier League last year, the only player on Everton to rank in the top 15 for midfield breaking passes was Jordan Pickford, who is a goalkeeper.
Meanwhile, no one on the club ranked in the top 30 in the league for passes breaking through the defensive line.
One big question: Will David Moyes turn this Everton team over?
The Toffees spent €130 million on transfer fees last summer, but only one of the acquisitions, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, broke the 2,000-minute mark in the league.
Despite bringing in a bunch of new, younger players, Everton remained the third-oldest team in the league, per FBref's average age weighted by minutes played. With the departure of 35-year-old Gueye, it'll be close to impossible for them not to get a little bit younger this season, but Moyes has to start turning this into whatever the next version of Everton is going to be.
Given how close they've been to relegation in recent years, that's a scary thought. But that's the balance your manager has to find in order to keep the team alive. If you take too many risks and play too many younger players, then you might get relegated.
But if you hang onto the veterans too long, the same thing could happen -- without any of the upside you get from turning into a younger team. This club hasn't finished inside the top 10 since 2019. After the past two summers, Everton have more than enough peak and pre-peak talent to build something new ... and build toward something better. --O'Hanlon
14. Leeds United
Last season's finish: 14th (47 points, minus-7 goal differential)
Key ins: GK James Trafford (Manchester City, €46.7 million), CB Tarik Muharemovic (Sassuolo, €37.0 million), RW Harry Wilson (Fulham, free transfer)
Key outs: CB Pascal Struijk (Brighton, €23.2 million), LW Jack Harrison (New England, €1 million)
Key stat
From Dec. 1 through the end of the season -- not a full-season sample, but a pretty big one -- Leeds ranked seventh in points per game (1.44), seventh in goal differential (plus-5) and ninth in xG differential (plus-2.23).
Though Sunderland drew headlines for finishing seventh and earning a Europa League spot in their first season after promotion, Leeds were the superior promoted team for a healthy percentage of the season.
They forced mistakes and high turnovers -- in this period, they scored 17 goals from high turnovers, and no one else topped 13 -- but they were able to avoid overextending themselves and getting torn apart in transition. Daniel Farke crafted a unique combination of direct play and selective pressure, and it paid off.
One big question: Will the same approach work twice for Leeds?
Farke indeed found a fun mix of intensity without overexposure, and Leeds finished comfortably above the drop zone because of it. But teams know what to expect now, and the club is basically bringing the same roster back aside from a potential upgrade at goalkeeper -- Trafford was dynamite at Burnley in 2024-25 before mostly sitting at Manchester City last season -- and a Struijk-for-Muharemovic trade at center back.
Farke was perhaps a little too reliant on stellar scoring from injury-prone forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin and chance creation from injury-prone midfielder Anton Stach. Calvert-Lewin was particularly important: Leeds averaged 1.37 points per game when he started, and 0.75 when he didn't.
Can players such as Noah Okafor and the incoming Wilson ease the scoring load a bit? Can Ethan Ampadu, Brenden Aaronson & Co. keep timing their pressure this well? Did the club need to add a couple more pieces to keep things fresh? -- Connelly
15. Crystal Palace
Last season's finish: 15th (45 points, minus-10 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Pierre Sage, LW Dwight McNeil (Everton, €25.80 million), RB Óscar Mingueza (Celta de Vigo, free), CB Takehiro Tomiyasu (Ajax, free)
Key outs: Manager Oliver Glasner, CB Maxence Lacroix (Chelsea, €60.70 million), RW Brennan Johnson (Everton, €25.80 million), RB Danny Imray (Wrexham, €6.60 million), GK Owen Goodman (Dundee, loan), LB Rio Cardines (Bristol City, loan), RB Nathaniel Clyne (contract expired)
Key stat
Last season, three players in the Premier League added at least 10 goals with their non-shooting on-ball actions, per Stats Perform's expected possession value added metric. One was Jeremy Doku, who is essentially a free pass into the other team's penalty area.
Another one was Bruno Fernandes, who set the Premier League record for assists in a single season. And the third was a guy who wasn't even selected for his country's World Cup squad:
After the departures of Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Lacroix in recent seasons, Adam Wharton is Palace's one remaining star.
One big question: How much of this was Oliver Glasner's magic?
Over the past five seasons, Palace have had three full-time managers. Here's how the team performed under each one, per their adjusted goal differential:
• Patrick Vieira: minus-0.13
• Roy Hodgson: minus-0.08
• Glasner: plus-0.21
How much of that comes down to Glasner's special abilities as a manager? And how much of it comes down to the fact that his teams featured players who were eventually acquired by Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea? The fact that Glasner made, at best, a lateral move to Nottingham Forest this summer suggests that the rest of the soccer world believes the second question is the more important one. Even so, it doesn't change the fact that none of those players is on the team that new manager Sage just inherited. -- O'Hanlon
16. Fulham
Last season's finish: 11th (52 points, plus-4 goal differential)
Key ins: Manager Alvaro Arbeloa, CF Gonzalo García (Real Madrid, €40.00 million), DM Shea Charles (Southampton, €30.40 million), AM César Palacios (Real Madrid, €10.00 million), CF Jonah Kusi-Asare (Bayern Munich, €6.00 million)
Key outs: Manager Marco Silva, CM Saša Lukić (Ipswich Town, €10.50 million), CB Issa Diop (Ipswich Town, €10.00 million), RW Harry Wilson (Leeds United, free), CF Raúl Jiménez (Wolverhampton Wanderers, free), GK Steven Benda (contract expired)
Key stat
For the past couple seasons, I had been writing the same thing: This team was too old, but Silva kept finding a way to make it all work just well enough.
Ahead of the 2026-27 campaign, though, only half of that remains true. Last season, Fulham were the oldest team in the league, with an average age weighted by minutes played of 28.1. But Silva's contract wasn't renewed after the season, and he left to go manage Benfica.
One big question: Alvaro Arbeloa, really?
It kind of seemed like Arbeloa blew his one shot to be a manager last season. Real Madrid fired Xabi Alonso once the players refused to keep pressing, and he couldn't figure out a way to make it still work.
But under Arbeloa, the team got significantly worse in every way: fewer points, fewer shots, fewer xG, fewer touches inside the box, less pressing, more shots allowed, more xG allowed and more touches inside the box allowed. Oh, and things got so bad in the locker room that Federico Valverde had to miss El Clasico with a concussion he suffered from a multiday fight with teammate Aurélien Tchouaméni in the training room.
So, Arbeloa failed on and off the field -- and now not only is he managing Fulham, but he is seemingly being given a large say in who the team acquires. Two of the four signings this summer are players Arbeloa managed when he was running Real Madrid's B team. I am very confused. -- O'Hanlon
17. Sunderland
Last season's finish: seventh (54 points, minus-6 goal differential)
Key ins: RB Thomas Meunier (Lille, free transfer)
Key outs: CF Eliezer Mayenda (Rennes, €22 million)
Key stat
Stats can be such killjoys. They turn cool stories into mirages.
In 2024-25, Nottingham Forest finished seventh in the Premier League table despite ranking 13th in xG differential and 16th in average xG differential in losses -- they either won by a little or lost by a lot, and it was a sign that maybe their results didn't match their quality. The next season, while balancing Europa League play with domestic regression to the mean, they plummeted to 16th in the league.
Sunderland, meanwhile, finished seventh in the table last season despite ranking 18th in the league in xG differential and 19th in xGD in losses. They had a negative xGD in 25 games but won five of those and drew in another eight. Meanwhile, eight of their 12 losses came by multiple goals, including a 5-0 thumping against Forest and 3-0 losses to Arsenal, Manchester City and Brentford.
It was a thrill to have the Black Cats -- and the Stadium of Light crowd -- back in the top division, and we'll get to see them in the Europa League this coming season as well. But virtually any indicator you choose suggests they're due some utterly massive regression.
One big question: Who will jazz up the Sunderland attack?
When Sunderland ran into problems last season, it was typically because of a meager attack. Forwards Brian Brobbey and Wilson Isidor had their moments, and Enzo Le Fée and Granit Xhaka each had six assists, but Sunderland ranked 17th in shots per possession, 17th in xG per shot and, predictably, 17th in goals.
And now they have to figure out how to create more advantages while potentially spreading themselves thin in the Europa League, and with no new signings up front (unless you count winger Simon Adingra, who scored three goals on loan with Monaco in the second half of last season). This is going to be a challenge. -- Connelly
18. Coventry City
Last season's finish: first in the Championship (95 points, plus-52 goal differential)
Key ins: CM Caleb Yirenkyi (Nordsjaelland, €27 million), GK Carl Rushworth (Brighton, €25.7 million), RW Loum Tchaouna (Burnley, €23 million), CB Aurèle Amenda (Eintracht Frankfurt, €18 million), CF Taiwo Awoniyi (Nottingham Forest, €10.5 million), CM Frank Onyeka (Brentford, €7 million), CM Gustavo Hamer (Sheffield United, €7 million)
Key outs: none
Key stat
Coventry ranked first in the 2025-26 Championship in goals scored, first in goals allowed and first in xG differential. Sure, they played a version of the type of possession game that doesn't always translate against the massive talent upgrade of the Premier League -- they were first in shot attempts per possession (0.13), second in combined progressive passes and carries (115.7 per game), third in pass completion rate (81.4%) and fourth in possession rate (55.0%).
But there's no question who the best team in England's second division was last season. And with a wealth of athletic and age-appropriate signings, there's reason for Coventry fans to be optimistic about surviving a season in the Premier League.
That said, this is still a really, really big leap.
One big question: Who will bring directness to the table?
After two straight seasons in which all three promoted teams went straight back down, Sunderland and Leeds both survived with directness.
They both ranked in the league's top five in average pass distance and percentage of forward passes, and while they had different intentions in doing so -- Leeds were looking for quick-strike opportunities, but Sunderland were often seeking to simply get the ball out of dangerous areas -- they were both good enough at it to make directness and urgency work for them.
Frank Lampard's side didn't play that game last season. Coventry's controlled possession approach worked beautifully and should have its moments of both attractive play (thanks to attacking midfielder Ephron Mason-Clark, midfielder Victor Torp and others) and brute-force crosses-and-chaos play (three players, including forwards Ellis Simms and Haji Wright, had at least three headed goals last season).
But they'll need to force the issue and play with verticality at times, and we won't know they can do it until we see it.
19. Ipswich Town
Last season's finish: second in the English Championship (84 points, plus-33 goal differential), automatic promotion
Key ins: Manager Gary O'Neil, CF Emersonn (Toulouse, €28.00 million), RW Abdul Fatawu (Leicester City, €23.45 million), DM Florentino (Burnley, €18.70 million), CM Saša Lukić (Fulham, €10.50 million), CB Issa Diop (Fulham, €10.00 million), GK Kjell Scherpen (Union SG, €10.00 million), LW Daizen Maeda (Celtic, €9.40 million), CF Chuba Akpom (Ajax, €9.30 million), CB Cédric Kipré (Stade Reims, €4.50 million), GK Kayne van Oevelen (FC Volendam, €4.00 million)
Key outs: Manager Kieran McKenna, GK Arijanet Murić (Sassuolo, €7.00 million), CB Elkan Baggott (Millwall, €1.17 million), RW Wes Burns (Leicester City, €90k), AM Conor Chaplin (Leicester City, free), LB Conor Townsend (West Brom, free), GK Cieran Slicker (Barnsley, loan), RB Ashley Young (retired)
Key stat
In case you're still wondering how much the financial gap between the Premier League and the rest of Europe has warped the landscape, take a look at this. The four clubs with the biggest negative net spends this summer -- transfer fees received minus transfer fees paid -- are Chelsea, Real Madrid, Arsenal and Ipswich Town.
As of now, Ipswich Town have spent €115.49 million more than they've received. And with a rumored return for Strasbourg's Julio Enciso, among others, it seems like that number is only going to get bigger between now and the end of the summer.
One big question: What will happen without Kieran McKenna?
It's impossible to talk about Ipswich Town and McKenna without each other.
The club hadn't been in the Premier League since 2002, and midway through the 2021 season it was just a middling third-division side. Then Ipswich hired McKenna away from Manchester United and everything kept getting better. They were promoted to the Championship in his first full season in charge. Then they were promoted to the Premier League in his second season. They were demoted from the Premier League in his third season, but then they were promoted back to the Premier League in his fourth.
Though we tend to give managers too much credit and too much blame for team performance, the cause-and-effect here seems pretty clear. It's not as if McKenna inherited a sleeping giant chock-full of talent. The only major departures during his tenure were Omari Hutchinson's move to Nottingham Forest and Liam Delap's switch to Chelsea last summer. He, of course, still got the club promoted again after they both left.
McKenna left the club after the 2026-26 season and that, perhaps, explains all of the summer business: Ipswich can't rely on their manager to make the team better anymore. -- O'Hanlon
20. Hull City
Last season's finish: sixth in the English Championship (73 points, plus-4 goal differential), promoted via playoff
Key ins: CB Nobel Mendy (Rayo Vallecano, €23.40 million), GK Konstantinos Tzolakis (Olympiacos, €23.30 million), CB Lucas Herrington (Colorado Rapids, €14.80 million), CM Jens Hjertø-Dahl (Tromsø IL, €9.50 million), GK Jack Butland (Rangers, €3.50 million), LM Elliot Stroud (Mjällby AIF, €2.50 million), CM Hidemasa Morita (Sporting CP, free), LB Matt Targett (Newcastle United, free), DM Óscar Zambrano (NK Maribor, fee TBD)
Key outs: GK Ivor Pandur (Rangers, €7.00 million), CF Kyle Joseph (Middlesbrough, €4.70 million), RW Abu Kamara (Portsmouth, €2.90 million), CB Akin Famewo (Bolton Wanderers, €585k), AM Kasey Palmer (Luton Town, €580k), AM Harry Vaughan (Bohemians, free), CF Mason Burstow (Sheffield Wednesday, loan), GK Thimothée Lo-Tutala (Colchester United, loan), GK Harvey Cartwright (Grimsby Town, loan)
Key stat
The Stats Perform database has 13 full Championship seasons with advanced stats. We know this doesn't happen, but if the three best teams were promoted to the Premier League every season, we'd expect most of the 39 promoted teams to rank somewhere inside the top 40 or 50 teams since 2013-14 by adjusted goal differential. Coventry and Ipswich landed inside the top 20 with their performances last season.
As for Hull City? They rank 235th. This is -- by far -- the worst team that has been promoted to the Premier League in the modern era.
One big question: How much does it matter?
Historically, it does not matter.
There is almost no correlation between performance in the Championship and subsequent performance in the Premier League for promoted teams. Some of the worst Championship teams to get promoted in recent years -- Sean Dyche's Burnley, Huddersfield Town, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland -- survived in Year 1. Burnley and Forest went on to have significant runs in the first division, while Sunderland just finished 10th last season.
Hull, themselves, seem to be aware of their own limitations and what the proper expectations should be. Rather than spending a ton of money on older players who might help this season but not much beyond that, they've spent a reasonable amount -- ranking 13th for net spend in the Premier League so far -- on a bunch of players who are almost exclusively 24 or younger. They have added some veterans -- Butland, Morita and Targett are all in their 30s -- but for a combined fee of just €3.5 million.
This team is likely to get relegated, but it's far from a sure thing. Their summer business aligns almost exactly with that balance: They've added some players who could help them right away and a bunch who could help them well beyond the upcoming season. -- O'Hanlon
