UWCL draw overreactions: Barcelona vs. Arsenal final? Chelsea finish top? OL Lyonnes miss top four?

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Can Barcelona's UWCL dominance stretch even further? (1:37)

The UEFA Women's Champions League league phase draw took place on Friday, with all 18 teams learning their fate.

Arsenal have to face both current champions Barcelona -- who they beat in the 2024-25 final -- and last year's beaten finalists OL Lyonnes, while Chelsea's toughest tests come in the face of two French sides: Lyonnes and Paris Saint-Germain.

So what did our writers make of the draw? Let's overreact.


How the draw worked

Like last year, the draw selected each team's fixtures in one large table, with the top 12 qualifying for the knockout stages at the end of December.

• The league phase starts on Sept. 22-23 and ends on Dec. 16.
• Teams in positions 13 to 18 are eliminated.
• The eight teams in positions 5 through 12 play in the knockout phase playoffs, in February, to earn a place in the quarterfinals.
• The top four go straight through to the quarterfinals, played in March and April.

From the knockout phase playoffs onward, the competition has a two-legged format through to the semifinals, with a traditional one-legged final.


Barcelona vs. Arsenal will be the final

In a repeat of the 2025 final, European champions Barcelona host Arsenal. It will also be a dress rehearsal for this season's final in Warsaw. It is hardly a massive claim to say Barça will make the final. They have been in seven of the last eight, including the last six, winning the competition four times. There has been some upheaval this summer; Alexia Putellas and Mapi León have headlined a string of departures, but they still have the best midfield in the game and the necessary know-how to go far in the Champions League.

Arsenal are less certain to be there, but the Gunners are the English side with the best relationship with European competitions. The two-time winners reached the semifinals last year and could have a good run in the Champions League when spring comes around. Though they will also be keen to push for the WSL title and could run out of steam with a focus on multiple fronts.

Verdict: OVERREACTION -- Sam Marsden

Chelsea will top the table and finally win it all

Chelsea will take this draw. OL Lyonnes are the hardest task -- with a tricky trip to Parc Olympique Lyonnais -- but the rest of their matches are eminently winnable. PSG are in for a tough time, while Chelsea will fancy their chances against Roma and Austria Wien at Stamford Bridge, and be confident of getting wins on the road at BK Häcken and OH Leuven. The latter two will test Chelsea, but they will head there as favourites.

The Champions League has been the crown which has evaded Chelsea for so long, unashamedly their north star. Emma Hayes came close in 2021; Sonia Bompastor was brought in with the aim of finally landing that European crown two years ago. But in 2024-25 they were dumped out of the tournament 8-2 by Barcelona in the semis, and Arsenal ended their hopes last year in the final eight.

This draw gives them a good shot of finishing top at the end of the league phase, but the overall title may just escape them again. There are simply stronger teams out there.

Verdict: OVERREACTION -- Tom Hamilton

OL Lyonnes won't finish in the top four

OL Lyonnes have long been a powerhouse of European football. Their record eight UWCL titles and years of dominance once had the rest of the continent looking up at them, but the tide has turned and they are no longer seen as the undisputed best in the women's game.

Their route back to another final -- after suffering a bruising 4-0 defeat to Barcelona last year -- already looks complicated. The mentality that once made them the juggernauts of the competition has faded following a four-year trophy drought, and despite boasting one of the deepest squads in Europe, their squad management has left much to be desired.

Their league-phase draw only adds to the concern. Away trips to both of England's top sides -- including a reunion with former coach Sonia Bompastor -- alongside fixtures against BK Häcken, Juventus and Inter Milan, could expose the weaknesses that have emerged at the back. All three opponents possess the organization and physicality to frustrate Lyonnes, while their ability to sit in a low block could restrict their key players' influence in the areas where they are the most dangerous.

As a result, Lyonnes will likely find themselves outside the top four and facing two additional playoff matches just to reach the quarterfinals. They may not even do that if things go sideways in February.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION -- Emily Keogh

Arsenal also won't finish in the top four

Arsenal know what it takes to win the tournament and have had an impressive summer of recruitment with Ona Batlle, Georgia Stanway, Selina Cerci and Géraldine Reuteler all joining, among several others, and their squad is going to be tested to its max by this draw. They couldn't have dreamt of a harder task: a trip to Barcelona and welcoming OL Lyonnes to the Emirates - the latter who ended their European hopes last year.

Trips to Paris FC and Wolfsburg's playoff conquerors Inter Milan are tough. Benfica and HB Koge will be far more manageable at home, but those two matches against last season's finalists mean it's foreseeable that Arsenal will be left scrapping for a spot in the knockouts via the playoffs. There's certainly no danger of them going into the knockouts undercooked.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION -- Hamilton

Inter Milan will surprise everyone and qualify

Inter Milan have already received a major boost ahead of their debut UWCL campaign by knocking out former champions Wolfsburg on penalties to secure their place in the league phase. Despite being newcomers to the competition, Inter are far from inexperienced. They featured in last season's inaugural Europa Cup, while their strong domestic campaign saw them finish five points clear of Juventus in the Italian league.

That combination of European experience and domestic should increase their chances of at least making it to the playoffs, while the new format could also work in their favor.

Every team, including debutants and those drawn from Pot 3, has a genuine opportunity to reach the playoffs by finishing between 5-12th. Inter's fixtures -- Arsenal (H), Lyonnes (A), BK Häcken (H), Real Madrid (A), Manchester City (H) and Austria Wien (A) -- offer a difficult, but potentially favourable, route to avoiding the bottom four.

Their direct, disruptive approach could prove particularly problematic for possession-heavy sides such as Arsenal and OL Lyonnes, while their ability to exploit injuries, squad imbalance and lapses in concentration could also give them opportunities against Manchester City and Real Madrid. For a debutant, Inter could be one of the league phase's most dangerous outsiders.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION -- Keogh

Paris Saint-Germain will implode

Relative to their transfer spending, PSG are perennial underachievers on the European stage and failed to make it out of the league phase last season without winning a single game.

Having lost a number of key personnel this summer -- including goalkeeper Mary Earps to London City Lionesses and Élisa De Almeida to Arsenal -- they could well implode this term. Their tough away fixtures against Chelsea, Real Madrid and Manchester City could see them come unstuck once more.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION -- Beth Lindop

Felicia Schröder will finish as UWCL top scorer

Real Madrid continue to invest in their squad each summer, but a complicated draw -- PSG, Bayern, Paris FC, Roma, Inter, Man City -- could force them into the playoff round and create a more complicated route to the final. Regardless of how far they go, though, we are going to see a lot of goals from teenage sensation Felicia Schröder.

The 19-year-old, signed from BK Häcken for over €1 million this summer, has hit the ground running in Spain. She scored in both playoff matches against Ajax as Madrid booked their place in the league phase. She also netted a brace in the opening day 3-2 win in Liga F over Atlético Madrid. The Sweden forward will be the breakout star of the league phase, but Madrid might not go far enough for her to finish as the competition's top scorer.

Verdict: OVERREACTION -- Marsden

Man City's injuries will scupper their chances

It was a stellar season for City last term, winning their first WSL title in a decade under new boss Andree Jeglertz. Their European pedigree, however, isn't the greatest, with their last semifinal having come in 2018. I don't think expect that to change this year and injuries may even scupper their chances of making the knockout stages.

Their relatively kind draw -- with their most difficult fixtures coming them at home -- could offer them a reprieve. But the absence of Vivienne Miedema, Sydney Lohmann and Niamh Charles could leave them scrambling for qualification via the playoffs.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION -- Lindop

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