Manchester United are eighth on the list of favourites to win the UEFA Champions League this season, sitting ahead of Internazionale, Atlético Madrid and Borussia Dortmund on some betting sites. How that conclusion has been reached is difficult to say.
United play Sabah FK, champions of Azerbaijan, at Old Trafford on Thursday in what will be their first Champions League game for nearly three years. It's been more than 1,000 days since they were knocked out in the group stage after defeat to Bayern Munich in December 2023.
United have won just one of their last nine Champions League fixtures. They've gone out at the group stage in four of their last nine attempts, missing out on qualification entirely in five of the past 10 seasons.
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Since reaching the final in 2011, United have won just two Champions League knockout ties -- against Olympiacos in 2014 and Paris Saint-Germain in 2019. They've not even been past the quarterfinals for 15 years.
United do, though, have history, having won Europe's top club competition three times in 1968, 1999 and 2008. Only six clubs have lifted the trophy more. Between 2008 and 2011, they reached three finals in four years and were only stopped by Pep Guardiola's all-conquering Barcelona team featuring peak Lionel Messi.
Still, as they prepare to make their return, United are relative Champions League novices. And yet according to the odds, they're still expected to make a significant impression this season.
Balancing expectation with reality is a challenge for Michael Carrick.
"We understand the reality of what we feel we can achieve," the head coach said ahead of the new season. "Of course we have to be realistic, and not think that everything is going to be rosy. We understand that, but we're really positive and excited about what's next."
A club of United's size and stature should start most competitions among the favourites, though that doesn't tally with the situation they currently find themselves in.
Part of Sir Alex Ferguson's team that won the Champions League in 2008, Carrick knows better than to play down United chances. It's not what United managers are supposed to do. But he will also be acutely aware that the squad is going through a significant rebuild, and as result his team probably aren't ready to challenge the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid.
The Champions League creates complications for Carrick. Playing three games a week will put a strain on the squad that wasn't there when he took over from Ruben Amorim last season. Sabah's visit to Manchester kicks off a run of four games in 11 days, including a Manchester derby with rivals City next weekend.
"There's no denying it's different," Carrick said in the summer when reflecting on what will be a far busier campaign.
What's certain is that United need the Champions League. Many fans have been left underwhelmed by a summer transfer window that saw the arrival of three midfielders -- Andrey Santos (from Chelsea), Youri Tielemans (from Aston Villa) and Carlos Baleba (from Brighton & Hove Albion) -- for a net spend of around £85 million. Yet frustration at a lack of defensive reinforcements was heightened by two more goals conceded at Everton on Sunday -- that's now six in three games in the Premier League.
It's not that United refused to spend; it's that they didn't feel they were able. The club insist they're compliant with financial fair play rules set by both the Premier League and UEFA, but a lack of consistent Champions League income, combined with recent recruitment mistakes and an ownership model that takes money out rather than putting it in, has hit the bank balance.
Ultimately, United need regular Champions League football to help solve their cashflow problems. Qualifying season after season would increase the scope to invest in the squad and get closer to the strongest teams at home and abroad.
Eventually, United hope revenue generated by a new 100,000-capacity stadium will help further bridge the gap -- but that's a way off yet. In the meantime, United are realistic about what can be achieved. Hard targets are never set, but there's a feeling internally that finishing in the top four of the Premier League, reaching the Champions League knockout rounds and a domestic cup run would represent a good campaign. It would at least be another step forward.
Only twice since Ferguson retired in 2013 have United qualified for the Champions League in two consecutive seasons. The Scot was the last United manager to qualify three times in a row. In contrast, Manchester City haven't missed out since 2011. While United were out of Europe all together last season, City all banked more than £80 million by reaching the last 16. Arsenal made it all the way to the final and made more than £120 million.
United are desperate for a similar financial injection.
Both City and Arsenal -- the Premier League top two -- will be expected to reach the latter rounds again this season. Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid, too. Once firmly on the same level as those European heavyweights, United kick off their comeback campaign this week still working their way towards being genuine contenders. Even if the bookmakers believe otherwise.
