Each week of the 2026 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six big talking points.
This week's Six Points feature an analysis of Damien Hardwick's Geelong free kick theory, the league's most in form player, the five recent names I'd make Hall of Fame 'Legends', and yet more criticism of the inept fixturing.
1. No team is looked after more by the umpires than Geelong
Geelong enjoys the rub of the green. I'm paraphrasing, and reading somewhat between the lines, but that's basically what Suns coach Damien Hardwick told the footy world after his side's loss to the Cats at GMHBA Stadium last Friday night.
Was it a bit of frustration in the immediate aftermath of a disappointing 45-point defeat? Sure. After all, a 24-20 free kick count in favour of the Cats is hardly one that's wildly lopsided and would lead to a full-blown umpiring review. Having said that, it hasn't stopped me diving into the free kick numbers to either bust or prove Hardwick's theory.
Firstly, let's take a look at the free kick ladder for season 2026. Which clubs are enjoying the most umpire support compared to their opposition, and who could use a whistle?
Turns out it's the Saints who have had the friendliest whistle this season, but the Cats are right behind them in second spot. It's interesting to note the two expansion clubs (can we still call them that?) languishing at the bottom. Of course, this doesn't really paint the full picture, and your takeaway from this can't simply be that the Saints get looked after more than anyone else. This table highlights only free kicks paid and completely ignores everything that wasn't whistled. Perhaps St Kilda has been robbed of more free kicks than anyone else and deserves to have a greater advantage. In short, free kick counts aren't always the be-all and end-all when telling the full story of a game, or in this case, a team's season.
Now let's look into Hardwick's theory. Do the Cats really receive preferential treatment by the umpires when playing on their home deck? Since 2022, home teams across the league enjoy 0.7 more free kicks than their opposition, on average. This is simply looking at any home team vs. any away team, which could be Geelong vs. Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium, but it could also be Essendon vs. Collingwood at the MCG.
Change the query to home teams vs. interstate travelling sides and the league-wide free kick differential in favour of the home team jumps from 0.7 to 1.3. Almost double!
But what I would really like to focus on (and I'm sure Hardwick does, too) is how the Cats differ from the competition average. When facing any opposition at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong enjoys a +1.97 free kick advantage, almost triple the league average of +0.7. When the Cats play a Victorian opposition at GMHBA Stadium, they are +0.85 better off on the free kick count, but when they face a non-Victorian opponent on their home deck, the free kick differential jump to a whopping +3.0 per game! That is, you guessed it, Damien, the best advantage in the league.
These figures may seem relatively small but they're certainly not insignificant. Since 2022, Geelong has enjoyed a +85 free kick differential when playing games at GMHBA Stadium.
So perhaps Hardwick has a legitimate grievance and his pointed comments last week weren't just sour grapes after a loss. Although as I often say, two things can be true...
2. The AFL overlapping with the Socceroos proves 2026 is the worst fixtured season in memory
Credit to veteran broadcaster Shane McInnes for blasting the AFL over more diabolical fixturing ... it's certainly been the year for it. And you know what, he's dead right; why on earth did the league opt to go head-to-head against the Socceroos during the World Cup?
The AFL will argue its fixture was set in stone before the World Cup schedule dropped in December, but for just about seven months it has known there was going to be a problematic overlap. It's either foolish arrogance or an inexcusable oversight from the league office to have not tweaked Sunday's slate to ensure the Australia-Türkiye group clash in Vancouver was offered clear air.
It could have either shifted one of the two Sunday games to Friday or Saturday evening, or, the easier solution, scheduled the latter game post-4pm, once the Socceroos had wrapped up. You know, a timeslot we seem to have just about every other week! Don't even dare argue the AFL couldn't make a time change; we already have precedent of the league altering start times of matches in 2026.
In the end, just 17,748 people rocked up to Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon to watch the Saints-Giants do battle in what actually turned out to be a pretty intriguing contest. Half of the top deck of the stadium was roped off, almost as if organisers knew hardly anyone was going to show up, with the overwhelming majority of footy fans in the country instead opting to support the national football team. Just as they should.
This is the World Cup. It's the biggest sporting event on the planet, staged once every four years. It's even rarer than that we get a game, featuring Australia, on a weekend, in a watchable window Down Under. Perhaps the AFL could have shown a smidgen of respect and left some clear air for it, embracing what would have been a rare PR win under the Andrew Dillon administration.
3. Jordan Dawson is the most in-form man in the AFL
There are many metrics you can look at that will lead you to the conclusion that no player in the competition has been more impactful over the last six weeks than Jordan Dawson. But what probably tells the story of the Adelaide captain's purple patch best is that no Crow has had a higher-rated six week period in 10 years!
In that time, I've awarded Dawson 13 of a possible 15 Brownlow Medal votes (they've had a bye in there) on ESPN's predictor. That's more than anyone else in the competition, bye or no bye.
The Crows skipper torched the Bulldogs last Thursday night. His first quarter performance at Marvel Stadium was one of the greatest terms ever seen, with Dawson tallying eight disposals, six contested possessions, five score involvements, 241 metres gained, and booting three goals. All in a quarter! Champion Data rated his game as the fourth-best ever by an Adelaide player. Call it the richest of rich veins of form!
4. There are five modern day no-doubt Hall of Fame 'legends' that will eventually be elevated
Last week, six more names were inducted into the Australian Football Hall of Fame, with Bill Walker elevated to Legend status. Those inducted were Tim Evans, John Worsfold, David Kantilla, Hayden Kennedy, Dustin Fletcher, and Gary Ablett jnr -- a man some argue to be the greatest player of all time and someone universally believed to be a certainty to one day be elevated to 'Legend' status.
But Ablett isn't the only recent player (someone that's either retired post-2020 or still playing) who is destined to become a Legend in the Hall of Fame. I'm convinced there are at least four more names that simply have to join him in football's most exclusive club, one that aims to recognise players and coaches who have caused the game to change significantly for the better.
Lance Franklin. A career spanning 354 games and boasting 1,066 goals. Could he be the last player to ever reach the magical four-figure goals milestone? Perhaps. He has to be a lock, too. And then there's Dustin Martin: the greatest finals player of all time. Three Grand Finals, three premierships, three Norm Smith Medals. Speaking of sporting legends, that's Michael Jordan stuff. Scott Pendlebury also has to make the Legend list. Who knows when the Collingwood champion will retire, but a record 435 games could easily become 450, 460? He's also arguably the greatest servant to the game of Australian rules football. Get him in!
That's four of the five names. We've still got dual Brownlow Medal winners Lachie Neale, Patrick Cripps, and Nat Fyfe, Cats superstars Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron, and Joel Selwood, all-time ruck Max Gawn, as well as arguably the player of the era, Marcus Bontempelli. All of these names are obviously locks to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, but I wouldn't be jumping up and down labelling it a disgrace if these guys were never elevated to Legend status.
Most of you aren't going to like this, but I tell you who one day will be ... Nick Daicos. Yeah, yeah, he's only 23 years of age and barely played 100 games ... I get it ... but the Magpies star is firmly on track to become one of the greatest players in league history. That's simply undeniable. One day Daicos will be a Legend in the Hall of Fame. Go on, stick this in a time capsule.
5. Something quirky I noticed
There was a weird and wonderful stat (of sorts) doing the rounds on Sunday afternoon after Liam Ryan became the first St Kilda player to boot at least five goals in consecutive games since Nick Riewoldt in 2009. Seeing this prompted me to find the most recent player from each team to achieve the feat:
Six of the 18 players either no longer play in the league or have since moved teams.
6. My favourite stat of the week
Look away Essendon fans... The Bombers have now won just one of their last 27 games. That's officially the worst 27-game period in the club's long, storied history. Ouch!
But hold up, it gets more grim. There are only eight instances of a worse 27-game stretch, i.e. 0-27, in league history. Six of those eight occurrences happened at least 90 years ago; the other two were Fitzroy from 1964 to 1965 and South Melbourne from 1972 to 1973.
