On Monday, we decided to take a closer look at the Big Ten’s quarterbacks. So, today, we’re answering three big questions about the conference’s running backs.
Who’s the B1G’s most explosive back? Who’s most likely to convert a third-and-short situation? And who can run with ease when defenses load the box? With the help of ESPN Stats & Information, we looked beyond the everyday stats like rushing yards and TDs to bring you inside those numbers.
Again, as a reminder, the numbers aren’t perfect here. Variables like the offensive line and opponent aren’t taken into account, but this still serves as a unique look at who’s most effective on paper:
Who’s the Big Ten’s most explosive running back?
Based on totals: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley (10-plus yard runs: 16)
When it comes to runs of at least 10 yards, Barkley leads the conference with 16 such runs. When it comes to gains of at least 20 yards, Barkley is even better -- he leads the entire Power 5 with nine such runs. To an extent, that’s to be expected since Barkley also paces the Big Ten with 117 carries. But Barkley’s totals are worth noting here due to the struggles on his offensive line. Some 22.2 percent of his runs go for zero or negative yardage, the highest rate in the conference. So his opportunities for those big runs aren’t quite as high as they initially seem.
Based on percentage: Ohio State RB Curtis Samuel (10-plus yard runs: 13)
Twenty-six percent of Samuel’s carries have gone for at least 10 yards. That’s pretty remarkable, considering he’s gaining 10-plus yard runs at a higher clip than Wisconsin’s Corey Clement is gaining 5-plus yard runs. Samuel has had at least one such run in every game he’s played. He’s been consistent in that area, and he hasn’t beaten up on just one opponent. He had four such runs against Tulsa and three apiece against Oklahoma and Indiana.
At the bottom: Nebraska RB Terrell Newby (10-plus yard runs: 4)
Newby may have the fewest 10-plus yard runs among running backs with at least 45 carries, and his percentage may also be a conference-worst. But that certainly doesn’t make Newby a bad back. He’s actually been among the Big Ten’s most consistent. Some 44.1 percent of his runs have gone for at least five yards, and he’s averaging 5.5 yards a carry. Outside of Iowa’s Akrum Wadley and his own teammate, those are the best numbers in the West. He’ll eat up a bunch of yards on just about every carry -- just don’t expect him to sprint for an 80-yard touchdown.
Who’s best when defenses load the box? (seven-plus defenders in the box)
Based on rush average: Michigan RB Chris Evans (9.14 yards per rush)
Yes, Evans absolutely obliterated Rutgers when it loaded the box. He had 10 carries in those instances for 144 yards. But, even if you take that game away, Evans is still the top Big Ten back with an average of 7.5 yards a carry. Evans is facing a loaded box on most of his carries, even at a higher rate than the likes of Clement and Northwestern’s Justin Jackson. But it doesn’t seem to matter.
Based on percentage of 5-plus yard runs: Ohio State RB Curtis Samuel (80 percent)
The Big Ten average in this situation is 36.9 percent, so Samuel has more than doubled it. Sixteen of his 20 runs against a loaded box have gone for at least 5 yards, as he trails only Evans when it comes to rush average (7.05 ypc). Oklahoma loaded the box against Samuel a season-high eight times, but Samuel still averaged 8.25 yards a carry.
At the bottom: Northwestern RB Justin Jackson (3.85 yards per rush)
Again, just because Jackson is on the bottom doesn’t mean he’s necessarily the problem. Northwestern’s offensive line has done him few favors, and his average is suffering because, when teams load the box, no running back is getting tackled more often at or behind the line of scrimmage than Jackson. That’s happening on 30 percent of his carries, compared to the B1G average of 17.1 percent.
Who’s most likely to get a first down on third-and-short?
Based on conversion rate: Ohio State RB Mike Weber (11-of-11)
Not only is Weber tied with Jackson for the most third-and-short situations -- 3 yards or closer -- in the Big Ten, but he’s one of the few backs to convert every single attempt. He’s the only running back in the nation, Group of 5 included, that has found himself in a third-and-short situation at least eight times and converted every single third down. Simply put, no one in the country is better here than Weber.
At the bottom: Rutgers RB Robert Martin (1-of-5)
Martin’s teammates have fared a bit better -- Justin Goodwin (2-of-4) and Josh Hicks (2-of-2) -- but the starting back hasn’t looked great in his few opportunities here. The only third down he converted came against FCS school Howard.
