Projecting the financial market for some of the New England Patriots' top free agents:
Player: Stephen Gostkowski
Position: Kicker
Age: 31 (birthday: Jan. 28, 1984)
Credentials: Gostkowski had arguably his two best seasons in 2013 and 2014, and he earned a Pro Bowl berth each year. He finished the 2014 regular season as the NFL's leading scorer, with 156 points (51-of-51 on extra points and 35-of-37 on field goals). In his ninth season, he became the Patriots' all-time leading scorer. He has one of the strongest legs in the NFL, with double value on kickoffs (53 touchbacks in the regular season, tied for fifth-most in the NFL).
Assessing the market: In 2013, Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski had four additional years added to his contract, and he received $8 million in bonuses and guarantees. The deal, which represented the top of the kicker market, averages $3.775 million per season. Janikowski is 36 years old, which suggests top kickers are still paid at the top of the market into their 30s. A more recent contract signed by a solid kicker, the Cowboys' Dan Bailey, included $7.5 million in bonuses and guarantees. That was a seven-year pact inked in 2014, and it averages $3.2 million per season. Bears kicker Robbie Gould signed a four-year extension late in 2013, and that included $8.85 million in bonuses and guarantees, with cap charges ranging from $2.6 to $4.1 million annually. Gould's deal averages $3.75 million per season. Meanwhile, Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee enters the final year of his contract in 2015, and he's due to earn a base salary of $3.425 million and count $4.3 million against the cap. His deal averages $3.45 million per season.
Our take on Gostkowski's value: Based on his performance the past two years and projections that he will continue to perform at that level for the foreseeable future, Gostkowski is in position to command a top-of-the-market offer. The franchise tag for kickers is around $4 million (it's $4.56 million for Gostkowski based on a 120 percent increase of his 2014 cap number), and that wouldn't be totally out of line if the sides can't agree on an extension. But that scenario would probably hurt the Patriots more than it would help them because an extension would likely allow them to keep Gostkowski with a lower salary-cap charge in 2015. Gostkowski has added value to a team such as the Patriots, based on the adverse conditions in which they often play.
Projected contract: Four years, $16 million, $9 million in bonuses/guarantees.
