As the 2015 college football season approaches, ESPN Stats & Information will preview the season for each Power 5 conference from the perspective of preseason FPI. As a refresher, preseason FPI is a rating based on a number of factors that have been found to be predictive for the coming season (previous years’ efficiencies, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure). An explanation of preseason FPI can be found here and here, and full-season projections are available at espn.com/fpi.
We will begin with a preview of the ACC.
FPI’s favorite
Florida State is the three-time reigning ACC champion, but FPI projects that Clemson has the best chance to win the conference. The Tigers boasted the best defense in the nation last season (0.99 points per drive allowed), and despite losing a number of starters, they are again projected to have a top-five defense.
The Seminoles rank two spots lower than Clemson in preseason FPI and should rival the Tigers for the ACC Atlantic Division. The main reason Florida State is not the favorite, though, is its lineup turnover.
The Seminoles had an FBS-high 11 players drafted, including seven on offense, leaving them with significant holes. Because of the low number of returning starters and a relatively inefficient year in 2014 (despite a strong record), Florida State is expected to take a step back in 2015.
The ACC Coastal Division is wide open, according to FPI, with four teams -- Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina -- each having at least a 15 percent chance to win.
FPI gives the Hokies the edge (28 percent chance to win division) because they return 16 starters to a team that was better than its record indicated last season (lost five games by a combined 20 points). Georgia Tech, with the return of quarterback Justin Thomas, is expected to have a top-10 offense, while Virginia Tech is expected to have a top-10 defense.
Top games of the year
Matchup quality ranks games (on a 0-to-100 scale) based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be. The games ranked highest in matchup quality will be competitive games between highly ranked teams in FPI.
• Top nonconference game: Ohio State at Virginia Tech (Sept. 7), 89.4 matchup quality
Virginia Tech is the last team to beat the reigning national champions, who enter the game on an FBS-high 13-game win streak. Can the Hokies pull another upset in 2015? FPI gives Virginia Tech a 26 percent chance to beat Ohio State for a second straight season, which is a better chance than the Hokies had entering the game last season (20 percent).
• Top conference game: Florida State at Clemson (Nov. 7), 85.8 MQ
In each of the past seven seasons, the winner of this game has gone on to win the ACC Atlantic Division. With Clemson and Florida State the two teams with the best chance to win the ACC, this game is again expected to have conference-championship implications. FPI gives the Tigers the edge (61 percent chance to win) because they are at home and return one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, Deshaun Watson.
• Closest projected game of the year: North Carolina at Pittsburgh (Oct. 29); Pittsburgh has 50.6 percent chance to win
North Carolina scored a go-ahead touchdown with 50 seconds remaining to defeat Pittsburgh 40-35 at home last season. FPI expects another high-scoring, close game between two of the top projected offenses in the ACC.
Top units of 2015
Preseason FPI utilizes the four factors listed above to predict the offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency of each FBS team for the 2015 season. When those three phases of the game are combined, the result is each team’s overall FPI rating. Below you will find the top projected units in the ACC. The numbers associated with each unit are the points per game that unit is expected to contribute to its team’s net scoring margin next season.
Offense: Georgia Tech (plus-10.6, seventh in FBS): The Yellow Jackets return Justin Thomas (fourth in QBR in 2014) and four offensive line starters to a unit that ranked third in efficiency last season. No team in the past 10 seasons gained a first down on a higher percentage of its drives or converted third downs at a higher rate than the Yellow Jackets in 2014.
Defense: Virginia Tech (plus-12.0, third in FBS): Virginia Tech is one of four teams that has ranked in the top 25 in defensive efficiency in each of the past four seasons (Alabama, Stanford and Michigan State are the others). Bud Foster returns eight starters -- including two of the top defensive ends in the ACC, Dadi Nicolas and Ken Ekanem -- to a team that sacked opponents at the highest rate in the country last season.
Special teams: Virginia Tech (plus-1.4, fifth in FBS): Is Beamer Ball back? With the majority of last year’s special teams unit returning, including its kicker and punter, Virginia Tech is expected by preseason FPI to boast one of the top special teams units in the nation.
Also in this series:
Previewing the Big 12
Previewing the Big Ten
Previewing the Pac-12
Previewing the SEC
Note: Projections will be updated throughout the summer as we learn more about starters and improve FPI to better handle games against FCS opponents.
