As the 2015 college football season approaches, ESPN Stats & Information will preview each Power 5 conference from the perspective of preseason FPI. As a refresher, preseason FPI is a rating based on a number of factors that have been found to be predictive for the coming season (previous years’ efficiencies, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure). An explanation of preseason FPI can be found here and here, and full season projections are available at espn.com/fpi.
Today we will analyze the upcoming season in the Big Ten.
FPI’s favorite
The Big Ten is expected to be the most lopsided conference race in the country, with Ohio State projected to run away with the conference championship.
Ohio State has the best chance of any Power 5 team to win its conference, but there is still a 37 percent chance that some other team takes the title. FPI projects that Michigan State, Wisconsin and Nebraska are the next-most likely teams to win the conference.
Although Wisconsin and Nebraska rank lower than Michigan and Penn State in preseason FPI, those teams have an easier path to the Big Ten championship game through the Big Ten West.
FPI projects that Wisconsin has a 44 percent chance to win the Big Ten West, followed by Nebraska at 29 percent. In comparison, neither Michigan nor Penn State has more than a 6 percent chance to win the Big Ten East, where Ohio State and Michigan State are the favorites.
Top games of the season
Matchup quality ranks games (on a 0-to-100 scale) based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be. The games ranked highest in matchup quality will be competitive games between highly ranked teams in FPI.
• Top nonconference game: Oregon at Michigan State (Sept. 12) -- 91.6 matchup quality
This game is expected to be the best nonconference matchup of the season, according to ESPN’s matchup quality metric. It features two of the top programs in the country, and despite Oregon’s 19-point victory last season, FPI expects this to be one of the closest games of the 2015 season. Michigan State has a 51 percent chance to win, per FPI, largely because the game is in East Lansing and the Spartans have the edge at quarterback with Connor Cook returning for his senior season.
• Top conference matchup: Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 21) -- 91.5 matchup quality
It’s not surprising that the top matchup in the Big Ten features the two teams with the best chance to win the conference. Ohio State is a decided favorite in this game (73 percent chance to win), but if Michigan State can pull out the victory, it will see its chances of winning the conference rise significantly.
• Closest projected game of the season: Minnesota at Iowa (Nov. 14) -- Minnesota 50.2 percent chance to win
The past four meetings between Iowa and Minnesota have been split, with an average margin of victory of one point per game. FPI expects another close matchup but gives Minnesota the slightest edge, even on the road, because of its offense, which averaged a season-high 3.9 points per drive against the Hawkeyes last season.
Top units of 2015
Preseason FPI uses the four factors listed above to predict the offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency of each FBS team for the 2015 season. When those three phases of the game are combined, the result is each team’s overall FPI rating. Below you will find the top projected units in the Big Ten. The numbers associated with each unit are the points per game that unit is expected to contribute to its team’s net scoring margin next season.
Offense: Ohio State (plus-14.2, third in FBS) –- Even without three All-America-caliber QBs returning, Ohio State would have the top projected offense in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes return arguably the top running back in the nation (Ezekiel Elliott) and six of their top seven receivers. The Buckeyes ranked fourth in offensive efficiency each of the last two seasons, and FPI projects they will rank even higher in 2015.
Defense: Penn State (plus-10.6, seventh in FBS) –- Penn State returns seven starters to a unit that allowed a Big Ten-low 4.3 yards per play in 2014. The Nittany Lions ranked 18th in defensive efficiency in James Franklin’s first season and are expected to move into the top 10 with a more complete roster.
Special teams: Ohio State (plus-0.9, 24th in FBS) –- In developing FPI’s projections, it became apparent that recruiting had an impact on special teams efficiency. This makes sense because young top recruits can excel in special-teams situations even if they do not have a spot in the starting lineup. No team in the Big Ten has recruited like the Buckeyes, who have signed a top-seven class in each of the past four years.
Also in this series:
Previewing the ACC
Previewing the Big 12
Previewing the Pac-12
Previewing the SEC
Note: Projections will be updated throughout the summer as we learn more about starters and improve FPI to better handle games against FCS opponents.
