As we head into September, 18 teams are still legitimate playoff contenders. I guess that's a good thing, although with only two division races within four games, much of the excitement comes from the wild-card races, which may or may not be your kind of personal delight.
With that mind, let's grade how the playoff races have gone this season.
AL EAST
Toronto: 75-57, --
Boston: 73-59, 2 GB
Baltimore: 72-60, 3 GB
New York: 68-63, 6.5 GB
Maybe this isn't quite the 1977 AL East race, when the Yankees won 100 games and the Red Sox and Orioles each won 97, or the 1978 race, when the Yankees and Red Sox tied at 99-63 after 162 games. It's more like the 1988 AL East race, when five teams finished within 3 ½ games of each other, although none won 90. Still, while these are all flawed teams, it does have a chance to be a memorable race, especially if the Yankees can climb closer and make it true four-team battle. The loser or losers are strong candidates to win a wild card, which could make the final weekend a little anticlimactic.
As an added bonus, September performance and results could influence the MVP voting. Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado could each win the award with a monster month that pushes his team to the division title. Heck, Gary Sanchez has had one of the greatest Augusts of all time -- rookie or not -- and could even win some down-ballot votes with another huge month. (Don’t scoff at the idea; Manny Ramirez finished fourth in the 2008 NL MVP voting while playing just 53 games for the Dodgers.)
My prediction, however, is that the Yankees don’t have enough to get closer. The Orioles have played under .500 ball for two months now while getting outscored by 46 runs. With Chris Tillman on the DL and Dylan Bundy perhaps hitting a wall, they may continue to slide and this becomes a two-team race. In a perfect world, of course, we end up with a four-way tie for the division title and those four teams also tie with the Tigers, Royals, Mariners and Astros for the wild-card spots. Sort that one out, commissioner's office!
Grade: A- With a chance to go higher.
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland: 75-56, --
Detroit: 71-61, 4.5 GB
Kansas City: 69-63, 6.5 GB
It seems like the Indians should have pulled away weeks ago, but maybe we were just fooled by June, when they went 22-6 and outscored opponents 143-75. The rest of the season they're just two games over .500, including a 12-12 record in July and 14-14 in August. That has allowed the Tigers and now -- amazingly -- the Royals to hang close.
After going a major league worst 7-19 in July, the Royals have gone 20-7 in August, which includes a three-game sweep at Detroit. The Tigers have gone a woeful 5-20 against the Royals and Indians, including 1-11 against Cleveland, in which they've been outscored 79-36. They'll have a chance at redemption with home-and-home series against both clubs.
Grade: C The Indians have held the lead since June 4. Will we get a dramatic finish? Or will it be the Year of Cleveland?
AL WEST
Texas: 79-54, --
Houston: 70-62, 8.5 GB
Seattle: 68-64, 10.5 GB
Not much going on here, as the Rangers continue to win one-run games and pull away. They've held the division lead since May 29 and led by as many as 10 games on June 28. The Astros did trim the lead to 2 ½ games on July 27, but then they lost nine of their next 11, and it appears the Rangers will now coast back into the playoffs.
Grade: D+ Kudos to the Rangers. They're 11-2 against Houston and 10-4 against Seattle. They've earned it.
AL WILD CARD
Boston: 73-59, +1
Baltimore: 72-60, --
Detroit: 71-61, 1 GB
Houston: 70-62, 2 GB
Kansas City: 69-63, 3 GB
New York: 68-63, 3.5 GB
Seattle: 68-64, 4 GB
It ain't pretty, but quantity trumps quality in this case. We last had a tie for a wild card in 2013 when Tampa Bay beat Texas to earn the AL's second wild-card spot. With so many teams in this race, it seems like a good chance for another tie. Or, preferably, a seven-way tie. A boy can dream.
Grade: A
NL EAST
Washington: 77-55, --
New York: 68-64, 9 GB
Miami: 67-65, 10 GB
What should have been a terrific race -- the Nationals and Mets were tied for first on May 29 -- instead turned into a runaway as the Mets stopped hitting and Daniel Murphy didn't. The vaunted Mets rotation has held its own, even without Matt Harvey, but the Nationals' rotation has been even better. The Marlins have hung in the playoff race without ever really seeming like a threat, although a 10-17 August has ensured they're fighting for a wild card and not a division title.
Grade: D+ A miracle Mets or Marlins finish seems unlikely.
NL CENTRAL
Chicago: 84-47, --
The Cubs entered the season as big favorites and spent exactly one day out of first place. On April 8, they were 3-1 while the Pirates were 4-0. A month later they were up 7 ½ games and printing playoff tickets. They’ve since stretched their lead to 14 games over the Cardinals.
Grade: F Which isn't saying the Cubs' season hasn't been exciting, just that they locked up the division early.
NL WEST
Los Angeles: 73-58, --
San Francisco: 71-60, 2 GB
The Dodgers have actually won the past three division races rather easily -- eight games over the Giants last year, six up on the Giants in 2014 and 11 up on the Diamondbacks in 2013 (with the Giants 16 back). But that 30-win differential over the Giants over those three seasons was made inconsequential by the Giants' third World Series title this decade back in 2014.
Anyway, this year's race: Pretty interesting, if not quite Goliath versus Goliath. The Giants led by as many eight games in late June (when they briefly took over the best record in baseball from the Cubs). But a 6 ½-game lead at the All-Star break has turned into 2-game deficit to the Dodgers. I suspect we're going down to the final weekend with this one.
Grade: A- With bonus points since it's one of baseball's best rivalries.
NL WILD CARD
San Francisco: 71-60, +1
St. Louis: 70-61, --
Pittsburgh: 67-63, 2.5 GB
New York: 68-64, 2.5 GB
Miami: 67-65, 3.5 GB
On paper, the Giants and Cardinals should be running away from the other three teams -- the Giants own a plus-61 run differential and the Cardinals plus-81, while none of the other three are more than plus-12.
Grade: B The Marlins and Mets have the easiest remaining schedules but the most ground to make up. The Pirates have gone 14-10 in July and 15-12 in August, so watch out for them.
