It seems to be a common theme in this year's postseason that the perceived better team gets its odds inflated. I wrote about this for the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card game and for both the Astros and Brewers in their respective Division Series. Once again, this appears to be the case for the Red Sox and Yankees.
The Sox finished with a better record, won the division and didn't have to win a wild-card game just to be here. But should that make them a 60 percent favorite to win this series, as Vegas implies? I'm not convinced.
Here is my betting preview for the series:
Boston Red Sox (-150) vs. New York Yankees (+130)
Game 1 odds: Yankees (Happ) +165 at Red Sox (Sale) -180
Game 1 over/under: 8 (U -120)
During the regular season, Boston played New York 19 times and won 10 of the matchups (53 percent). Despite the Red Sox finishing eight games ahead of the Yankees in the standings, Baseball Prospectus calculates that number would have been cut nearly in half if records were based solely on run differential -- a truer indicator of performance than actual wins. If you were take run differential a step further
