The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sports betting days of the year, so with Super Bowl LI nearly upon us, ESPN Chalk spoke with oddsmakers at some of Las Vegas' biggest sportsbooks to find out where the action has been coming in as we prepare for the big game.
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
1. Where do you have the Super Bowl LI line and total right now? Do you see moving off of New England -3 over the weekend?
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading, William Hill U.S.: Currently, we have the line at New England -3 (-110) with the total sitting at 59 and money line at New England -150/Atlanta +130. It hasn't moved for about five days, but I can see the line moving just a bit to -3.5 over the weekend. I can see it, but that doesn't mean it will.
Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management, CG Technology: We're at Patriots -3 (-105) and 59. I don't anticipate moving off of 3.
Randy Blum, supervisor, Westgate Las Vegas Superbook: Currently we have Patriots -3 and 59. So far, there seems to be just enough support for the Falcons to keep the number on 3. Betting will increase leading up to Sunday.
Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports, MGM: We are at 3 and 59. I really don't see us moving under current trends.
2. What are a few of the prop bets that have gotten the most handle?
Bogdanovich: We are continuing to see the most popular prop bets from over the years being bet heavily again. MVP award betting and Heads/Tails are the most popular. "Will there be a safety?" and "Will there be overtime?" are two very popular ones as well. "Will there be a successful two-point conversion" and "Will the game be exactly 3 points?" are two others.
Simbal: The Tom Brady props have been the most popular, specifically Brady's passing yards (over/under 304.5). Patriots total points scored (30.5) has seen some action as well. And then there are the usual picks every year: "Yes, there will be a two-point conversion," "Yes, there will be a safety" and "Yes, there will be a defensive TD."
Blum: The safety prop is always a popular one. This year we did something a little different: We added a safety prop for the first half and for the second half. These have been popular bets so far.
Rood: Julio Jones as the first player to score a touchdown and Vic Beasley Jr. as MVP at 80-1 have been very popular.
3. Which prop bets have moved the most?
Bogdanovich: The ones with the most handle mentioned earlier have moved (overtime, safety), as well as Brady to throw an interception (yes/no). Also, we have had good movement on bettors' taking the Atlanta long shots to win the MVP. Players such as Beasley, Eric Weems, Austin Hooper, Keanu Neal, etc., have moved since wagering opened on the MVP award. The player to score first touchdown prop has moved a bit for players such as Malcolm Mitchell and Levine Toilolo.
Simbal: They are betting that Julian Edelman will score a TD. The no opened -200, and now it's -130.
Blum: It is hard to pinpoint one or two with so many bets available. In general terms, we have seen at least a handful of props move toward the under. This is not surprising at all. Sharp action will always come first on the props.
Rood: Beasley to win MVP has moved from 80-1 to 22-1.
4. Do you have more future bet liability on New England or Atlanta? What's the best outcome for you in the game (NE and under, etc.)?
Bogdanovich: As of now, we have more future liability on Atlanta. No matter the outcome of the game, we will do well on futures.
Simbal: We do better in regard to the futures with Atlanta. There has been such good two-way action on the game itself that it's still too early to know for sure what we will need.
Blum: We win more on the Falcons, but we are in a great position on both teams, as far as futures go. The best result for the book as of now would be Atlanta outright with the under.
Rood: We have a stronger position with the Falcons in the futures, but we will probably need the Patriots to win but not cover.
5. Which player has taken the most action to win Super Bowl MVP? Any long shots?
Bogdanovich: Matt Ryan has been getting the most tickets to win the MVP (9 percent of the MVP tickets bet). He is a very popular pick at 9-5. As far as total dollars wagered, Beasley has the most (13 percent of all MVP money). Beasley Jr. is currently 22-1. Right behind him in MVP voting is Julio's running mate, Mohamed Sanu (10-1), at 10 percent of all the MVP money.
Simbal: LeGarrette Blount has taken the most action, which was at 17-1.
Blum: We have the most tickets and most liability on Beasley. Most of the action was at 100-1. I would guess the support for him is at least partially due to a defensive player winning MVP last year. On paper, this figures to be a different kind of game, though.
Rood: As mentioned earlier, Beasley Jr. has been very popular.
6. What is the biggest bet you've taken, and what was it on?
Bogdanovich: As of just after 12:45 p.m. PT Thursday, we have taken a $137,500 bet on over 59 (-110) to win $125,000, as well as a $60,000 bet on New England money line (-150). For MVP at this point, we took a $6,000 bet on Beasley when he opened at 50-1 to win $300,000. The biggest prop bet other than that MVP bet was an $8,000 bet on "No" for "Will there be overtime?" at -800.
Blum: We took a low six-figure bet on the Patriots -3.
Rood: We took a $300,000 bet on the Falcons.
Simbal: We took a $1 million bet on the Falcons +3.
