Of the nine FBS conferences last year, seven enjoyed one-score finishes in 31% to 41% of their conference games. That's not bad, really -- a couple of close games per week. Two conferences aimed higher, however, and only one plays weeknight games in October for our entertainment.
The SEC and Conference USA both had half their games finish within one score last season. It was CUSA's third straight season at 45% or higher. This conference's roster has changed more frequently and drastically through the years than any in FBS, and its main purpose in the 2020s has been to serve as a welcoming home for FCS programs moving up. But you know what? There are worse things in the world than being the conference that introduces you to fun, new programs and gives you nonstop nailbiters.
There's really no reason to expect anything different from CUSA in 2026. Last year's top two teams, Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State, both return just enough to hope for contention again, but Western Kentucky always contends, Liberty appears built to rebound after last year's sudden stumble, Delaware enjoys fantastic continuity, and after last season's sudden 10-losses-to-10-wins surge in Kennesaw, everyone else in the conference enters 2026 hoping for a surge as well.
This conference lost two teams to the latest round of realignment -- I personally wanted to see Louisiana Tech play 20 games this fall, but that's just me -- but the vibes remain the same: Anyone can win anything, and chances are the game you're watching will go down to the wire. Hell yeah. Let's preview Conference USA.
2025 recap
Kennesaw State went from 10 losses to 10 wins, while Sam Houston did the exact opposite. The participants in the 2023 conference title game, Liberty and New Mexico State, went a combined 8-16, while FBS newcomers Delaware and Missouri State went 14-12. This all makes sense, right? Really, the only three semi-reliable entities were Jacksonville State (which won nine games for a third straight year), Western Kentucky (eight or nine wins for a fifth straight year) and UTEP, which wrapped up its CUSA experience -- the Miners are off to the Mountain West -- with a third straight season of nine or more losses.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team's returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
When Ryan Carty brought Delaware up to the FBS last season, he did it with minimal help from transfers. The Blue Hens ranked 19th nationally in returning production in 2025, and after a solid debut season, they're back in the top 25 again. That's solid continuity work right there. Missouri State, the other second-year program, didn't fare quite as well. The Bears start Year 2 with a new head coach and a pretty new two-deep.
2026 projections
Last year's top three all start out in the top four, which makes sense. Can Liberty resume its place among the conference's best after an ill-fated (and downright strange) 2025 campaign? And if someone unexpected is going to pull a Kennesaw State and surge forward, who do you have? (I have my eye on Middle Tennessee State. No, seriously.)
Four teams start out within 0.7 projected wins of the top, and each of the other six has had a winning season fairly recently (though you have to go back to 2022 for MTSU). This should be fun.
Five best games of 2026
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under eight points.
Oct. 7: Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State. Depending on the closeness of the projections and the distribution of the schedule, each conference ends up with a hinge team or two -- the ones that either make title runs or decide who does by playing lots of games against other contenders. Since both Kennesaw State and WKU make three appearances on this five-game list, I guess that means the Owls and Hilltoppers are our hinge teams. And the run starts with a 2025 title game rematch on a Wednesday night in October.
Oct. 21: Liberty at Kennesaw State. Liberty's schedule is pretty conducive to a rebound, but this Wednesday night game will be the Flames' third road-trip tossup in four games following trips to Coastal Carolina and Delaware.
Nov. 14: Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky. In the homestretch, WKU becomes the hinge team, with three straight huge games to finish the regular season. These teams have played each other four times in three seasons -- one was for the CUSA title, and the other three were decided by three or fewer points.
Nov. 21: Western Kentucky at Liberty. Liberty is a hurdle that a couple of really good WKU teams failed to clear. And losing this one, at this time of the season, might be awfully costly.
Nov. 28: Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky. Hinge team vs. hinge team, possibly with a title game berth on the line.
My five favorite transfers
OL Roq Montgomery, WKU. Consider Montgomery a placeholder for talking about my favorite transfer unit in the conference. After losing eight of last year's top nine O-linemen, Tyson Helton had to come up big in the portal, and he might have pulled it off, adding former power-conference players in Montgomery (Alabama), Tai Ray (Pitt) and Alex Lopez (Mississippi State); two mid-major starters in Rhett Larson (Sam Houston) and Alec Johnson (Georgia State); and a big FCS veteran in Nonso Omezi (Houston Christian). Five of seven incoming linemen are at least 6-foot-5, and four, including Montgomery, are at least 320 pounds. An excellent transfer haul.
RB Kam Davis, Liberty. Another placeholder of sorts. Jamey Chadwell had to replace 1,300-yard rusher Evan Dickens and grabbed five potential options, including a former Army star in Kanye Udoh (who played at Arizona State last season) and, in Davis, a recent former top-100 prospect. Among his 65 touches were seven rushes of double-digit yardage and catches of 14 and 32 yards. He has excellent explosiveness potential.
CB Ryan Gadson, Florida International. Gadson was a full-service cornerback at Lafayette last season, not only picking off three passes and breaking up 16 more but also making three tackles for loss and 53 solo tackles. Wherever the play went, he was involved.
OL Amarii Atchison, Jax State. Jax State also added a good batch of linemen, grabbing a part-time starter from Nevada (Hadine Diaby), taking a speculative risk on a former blue-chipper (Pitt's Caleb Holmes) and grabbing three juniors from the FCS, including Atchison, a 6-foot-8 All-Southern Conference selection.
OL Josiah Chenault, Sam Houston. Phil Longo needed a great transfer haul following 2025's face-plant, and although he'll need a lot of hits, he likely got at least one in Chenault, a first-team All-CUSA selection at Kennesaw State. Projecting how a guy translates from one conference or subdivision to another is tricky, but we know exactly how Chenault translates to CUSA life.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game Highlights
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Head coach: Tyson Helton (eighth year, 58-35 overall)
2026 projection: 86th in SP+, 7.4 average wins (5.7 in Conference USA)
Just about every coach in the world preaches the power of consistency. The rewards are supposed to come automatically when you do the right things consistently. They haven't for WKU, though. Tyson Helton's Hilltoppers would win any Most Likely To Be Solid award in this conference, but they haven't won a CUSA title since 2016.
2021: 9-5 record, 46th in SP+
2022: 9-5 record, 68th in SP+
2023: 8-5 record, 74th in SP+
2024: 8-6 record, 78th in SP+
2025: 9-4 record, 69th in SP+
The variance there is minimal; the quality is impressive. But in the past five seasons, WKU has reached the CUSA championship only twice and lost both times. It should be no surprise that the Hilltoppers begin the season atop the pile, however. They're Most Likely To Be Solid, right?
The offense has driven the bus of late despite constant coordinator changes. Bodie Reeder becomes the sixth coordinator in seven seasons; he comes from Middle Tennessee, where he most certainly did not shine. Considering Helton's success in hiring young up-and-comers, hiring a veteran who hasn't run a particularly impressive offense since the 2010s was confusing, but Helton gets the benefit of the doubt for now, and in theory, Reeder has much more impressive personnel to work with at WKU. It's inexperienced, though. The skill corps is taking on heavy turnover, with only two of last year's top 10 yardage-from-scrimmage leaders returning.
Receiver K.D. Hutchinson is an excellent efficiency guy, but he'll need help from either unproven returnees such as sophomore Cameron Flowers and Quincy Burroughs or transfers such as Zion Taylor (Georgia Tech) and Jeremiah Carroll (Carson-Newman). The line returns basically one guy from last year's two-deep (tackle Karsten Upchurch), but as mentioned above, I love Rhett Larson, Roq Montgomery, Nonso Omezi and the seven-man haul Helton brought in. I'm betting the line holds up for the QB of choice. For now, that's probably Rodney Tisdale Jr., who was solid for a freshman (65.6% completion rate with decent scrambling). Florida State transfer Brock Glenn, injured for part of the spring, will still have a chance to overtake him.
The defense was fun last year, for better (14th in success rate) and worse (127th in yards allowed per successful play). Coordinator Davis Merritt has an aggressive streak, but he'll need some fun, new contributors after losing last year's top three tackle-for-loss leaders. Helton signed only six defensive transfers, which hints at confidence in his personnel, and safety Dave Herard is a solid playmaker. But transfers such as linebacker Garrison Madden (USC), nickelback Jacob Cosby-Mosley (Wake Forest) and safety D'Cambren Verrett (Texas A&M-Kingsville), and youngsters such as tackle Sekou Peters and linebacker Jordan Donald need to come through.
Liberty Flames
Head coach: Jamey Chadwell (fourth year, 25-13 overall)
2026 projection: 91st in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.6 in Conference USA)
Even with a slip in 2024, it was hard to argue that the first two years of Jamey Chadwell's Liberty tenure were anything but awesome. The Flames were 21-5 in 2023-24, combining both the typical excellent Chadwell offense with solid-for-CUSA defense. But in 2025, after Chadwell was diagnosed with what the school called a "serious but treatable medical condition" late in the summer, LU fell apart. The offense no-showed for half the season and fell from 60th to 88th in SP+, the defense fell from 70th to 104th, and Liberty lost four straight one-score games to finish a 4-8 season. It was the program's first losing record since joining the FBS.
Chadwell underwent offseason surgery and was back coaching in spring. He made some staff changes, with running backs coach Newland Isaac moving up to offensive coordinator and former Virginia Tech assistant Shawn Quinn now running the defense. Chadwell also signed a deep and exciting transfer class that should create competition throughout the two-deep.
Quarterback Ethan Vasko, who was out this spring after offseason surgery, will have to fend off Deshawn Purdie (Wake Forest) and Jaylen Henderson (West Virginia) to keep his job. Purdie appeared to have a particularly good spring. Meanwhile, exciting sophomore running back Jaylon Coleman is joined by five transfers, including sophomore blue-chipper Kam Davis (Florida State) and Kanye Udoh (Army via Arizona State). The best Chadwell offenses have featured a dynamic run game, and this is easily the deepest running back group in the conference, especially when combined with a line that returns four starters and adds blue-chip Penn State transfer Alex Birchmeier. The receiving corps isn't particularly proven, but senior Jamari Person could get help from transfers Makai Jackson (Indiana) and Rashawn Cunningham (Charleston Southern).
Chadwell's Liberty defenses have tended to prefer speed over hefty run defense, but in 2026, the front six is far more proven than the secondary. Six of 10 linemen return, including senior tackle Mike Jarvis, and linebacker Derrell Farrar is solid against both run and pass. But the secondary lost last year's top nine and welcomes seven transfers from all levels, including safeties D-Icey Hopkins (Georgia State) and Jayden Davis (Georgia Tech, via Georgia Southern), and active corners Elijah McKenzie (Bowie State) and Tyrell Gainey (Albany State).
Last year's stumble was stark for a program that has spending advantages over most of its CUSA peers and had won eight games every year since 2018. But it's not hard to see a solid rebound on the way, especially on offense. And after a marquee Week 1 trip to James Madison, the Flames are at least slight projected favorites in every remaining game.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Head coach: Charles Kelly (second year, 9-5 overall)
2026 projection: 96th in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.4 in Conference USA)
If you're a Jax State fan, and you bristled at me calling WKU "Most Likely To Be Solid," I understand. Your Gamecocks haven't really been around long enough to earn that honor, but in three FBS seasons, they've won nine games each time. They've made two straight CUSA championship games, too, winning one. We've seen a lot of impressive FBS jumps in recent years, and JSU's has been as solid as anyone's.
Last year was a bit of a roller coaster: JSU indeed clawed back to nine wins but slipped to 92nd in SP+ and played in nine one-score finishes, winning five. But considering the epic turnover that followed Rich Rodriguez's departure to West Virginia, and considering Charles Kelly was in no way a continuity hire, simply playing solid ball was impressive.
The continuity's better this year, though Taylor Housewright replaces Maryland-bound offensive coordinator Clint Trickett. Sophomore quarterback Caden Creel returns after combining 1,514 passing yards with 1,190 rushing yards, and though the Gamecocks have to replace star running back Cam Cook and two all-conference guards, five of last year's top eight linemen are still back, as is junior receiver Deondre Johnson, one of the most unique threats in the sport: He's 6-foot-8, and he's a go-route master who averaged 24.1 yards per catch. If a transfer like Ronnel Johnson (Missouri State), Darius Cannon (Murray State) or Jamill Williams (Albany State) becomes a viable efficiency option, JSU is set out wide. Running back is a mystery, though: None of the returnees came close to Cook's per-carry averages aside from redshirt freshman Jalen Likely, who carried only seven times. Housewright is a former Montana State coordinator who loves a good run game, but we'll see if a star back emerges.
The defense hunted turnovers (and occasionally gave up too many big plays) in 2025 and returns enough proven disruption to pull a similar act this year. Linebackers Mac Sanders and Walker O'Steen combined for 18 tackles for loss and took part in 25 run stops, and safety Caleb Nix and corner Tre'Quon Fegans combined for five interceptions and 10 pass breakups. That's a good starting point, and Kelly was aggressive in adding small-school disruptors such as tackle Marquis Hood (NC A&T) and corners Legend Doggett (LaGrange) and Jonavan Carr (Albany State), plus a former blue-chipper in safety Rob Billings IV (Clemson).
Jax State brings far more knowns to the table than it did a year ago, which is exciting considering what the Gamecocks managed to accomplish in 2025. But the loss of Cook is a big one. You don't want Creel carrying an even larger role in the run game.
Kennesaw State Owls
Head coach: Jerry Mack (second year, 10-4 overall)
2026 projection: 105th in SP+, 7.1 average wins (5.0 in Conference USA)
In last year's CUSA preview, I wrote that although I loved Kennesaw State's hire of Jerry Mack -- I really enjoyed the work he did as head coach at NC Central in the 2010s -- an awful offense would likely keep him from achieving anything major in his first year with the Owls.
Whoops. KSU leaped from 134th to 72nd in offensive SP+, thanks to both a stable run game and an explosive downfield passing game. A remodeled offensive line produced three all-conference performers, and after throwing for 1,565 yards with no real run threat at Wofford in 2024, Amari Odom became a dynamite dual-threat QB with 2,594 passing yards and 479 non-sack rushing yards. After early losses to Wake Forest and Indiana, the Owls won 10 of their next 11 games and finished the regular season with victories in both a track meet (48-42 at Liberty) and a rock fight (19-15 over Jax State in the CUSA championship game). I loved the Mack hire, but I evidently didn't love it nearly enough.
Mack has work to do in 2026. That surprisingly strong offense must now replace nine starters; only the two linemen who didn't earn All-CUSA honors return. Mack's smaller-school ties will have to pay off again. In running backs Latrelle Murrell (West Georgia) and Triston Morgan (Benedict), and receivers Devaughn Slaughter (Tennessee State), Brayden Munroe (Northern Colorado) and Keon Davis (Virginia Union), he landed five guys who recorded at least 500 yards from scrimmage. He got three big FCS veterans for the line, too, along with center Mateo Guevara (Middle Tennessee); size and experience won't be issues up front. If coordinator Mitch Militello can polish up Rickie Collins like he did Odom, this offense should be fine.
That's a big if. A former blue-chipper, Collins transferred from LSU to Syracuse last season but was an abject disaster when he came in for the injured Steve Angeli. He's a good runner, but he scrambled too much, and he finished the year averaging just 5.0 yards per dropback with six TDs to 10 interceptions. The Orange averaged just 12.0 points per game in his five starts. He has solid physical tools, but he has to become an actual QB.
The defense has a bit more continuity: Nine of the 19 players with 200-plus snaps return, including excellent disruptors in linebacker Baron Hopson and nickel Kody Jones. Mack still added 14 defensive transfers, though. That includes the requisite small-school stars -- linebackers Kai Russell (Wingate) and Alfred Thomas (Towson) -- and experienced mid-major defenders such as tackle Devin Morgan (Buffalo), safety Perry Fisher (UAB), linebacker Josh Anglin (Tulsa) and corner Luke Evans (Miami). Talent levels should be solid enough to replicate last year's numbers.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Delaware Blue Hens
Head coach: Ryan Carty (fifth year, 33-17 overall)
2026 projection: 114th in SP+, 5.7 average wins (4.0 in Conference USA)
No matter how much you feel you've prepared, it's a bit of a blind leap going from the FCS to the FBS. You're not going to know you're ready until you jump.
Delaware was ready. Ryan Carty's Blue Hens were immediately a league-average CUSA team in their first FBS season, upsetting UConn, winning four of six one-score finishes and winning their inaugural bowl game. The defense gave up too many big plays, and the run game didn't complement the pass well enough, but by any definition, 2025 was a rousing success. Delaware had fallen into a rut, with a 58-53 record in the decade before Carty's arrival, but the former Blue Hens quarterback immediately turned his alma mater around, and now he has eased it into the FBS with initial success. Impressive.
Even with an SP+ projection a little lower than I expected, the Blue Hens' schedule still offers plenty of win opportunities. Quarterback Nick Minicucci returns after throwing for 3,683 yards and 23 TDs, and his line returns three starters, including all-conference center Steven Demboski. If there's regression, it will come from turnover in the skill corps. Sean Wilson was one of the nation's better freshman receivers, but Minicucci's next four targets are all gone, and slot man Bryson Graves (Coastal Carolina) is the only semi-proven addition. Meanwhile, leading rusher Jo Silver is gone, leaving backups Viron Ellison Jr. and Greg Spiller and transfer Kaderris Roberts (Bowling Green) to fill the gap. Carty and coordinator Terence Archer clearly trust their developmental pipeline, but it must produce a few solid, young options.
The bar's a lot lower for a defense that ranked 126th in SP+ last season. Despite returning five of eight primary DBs, Carty still brought in three transfers, including FCS stars in safety Jalen Bell (Long Island) and corner Jaquise Alexander (North Dakota State). If those two are immediate hits and sophomore corner Jamarion Kolagbodi continues to come along the pass defense should improve. The line is dealing with major turnover, however, with five of last year's top eight gone and four big, new transfers coming in. Linebacker Gavin Moul is excellent, but linebackers can clean up only so many messes if the line doesn't hold up.
Florida International Panthers
Head coach: Willie Simmons (second year, 7-6 overall)
2026 projection: 118th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.3 in Conference USA)
He was overshadowed a bit by Mack, but another HBCU coaching alum also shined in 2025. In his first season succeeding Mike MacIntyre, Willie Simmons, winner of 66 games and a Celebration Bowl at Prairie View A&M and Florida A&M, engineered FIU's first winning season in seven years. The Panthers were spectacularly all-or-nothing -- they overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 10 points six times and underachieved by at least 12 points four times -- but they had one of the best big-play duos in the mid-major ranks with running back Kejon Owens and receiver Alex Perry.
Owens and Perry are both gone, as are quarterback Keyone Jenkins and all five starting linemen. Like Mack, Simmons' second year will feature as many new players as his first.
The passing game could still be solid: I like sophomore slot JoJo Stone, quite a few other sophomores and juniors saw action, and transfer Greg Gaines III is a former blue-chipper who gained 1,018 yards at 15.7 per catch at Rhode Island. Another former blue-chipper, quarterback JJ Kohl, was decent at Appalachian State last year, too. If he gets help from a line combining three key 2025 backups with four new transfers, the offense might avoid major regression even if no new rushing star emerges. (And if the Panthers trade a bit of that explosiveness for better consistency, that might work out well.)
The defense needed portal help. The Panthers have ranked 120th or worse in defensive SP+ for four of the past five years and allowed 34 or more points five times last season. The run front had to be totally rebuilt, and Simmons added five new defensive tackles and two linebackers. Only two of six regular defensive backs return, but sophomore safety Shamir Sterlin and corner Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine are keepers, and Lafayette transfer Ryan Gadson is an exciting addition at cornerback.
It's hard to confidently predict how a team with about 17 new starters will fare, but Simmons is proven, and there could be enough defensive improvement to offset a downgrade in offensive explosiveness. The schedule, which features only one game against a team projected higher than 91st in SP+, will help, too.
New Mexico State Aggies
Head coach: Tony Sanchez (third year, 7-17 overall)
2026 projection: 123rd in SP+, 5.0 average wins (3.6 in Conference USA)
The recent round of mid-major conference realignment basically accomplished three things: It created two approximate Mountain Wests (thanks to the Pac-12's expansion in the exact same footprint as the MWC), it gave us the absurdity of Northern Illinois in the Mountain West and Sacramento State in the MAC, and it at least briefly took away the Battle of I-10. With UTEP leaving for the MWC, and with NMSU's nonconference slate already full for 2026, the game will be absent from the schedule for only the third time since World War II.
NMSU fans could have used the excitement: Attendance has fallen 36% since 2023's Diego Pavia-led run to the CUSA championship game. The Aggies will host New Mexico in Week 5, which helps. Improvement on the field would probably be a good idea, too.
Last year was close to being quite a bit better. With a turnover-hunting defense, NMSU ranked a solid 64th in points allowed per drive and began the season 3-2. But the Aggies lost six of their final seven, a run that included four one-score losses.
The defense could be decent again. The secondary returns three starters, and nickel Bernock Iya is a delight (four interceptions, four pass breakups and six run stops). Sanchez brought in four smaller-school cornerbacks, too, led by juniors Izzy Clark-White (Monmouth) and Javon Gillespie (East Texas A&M). Linebackers Tory Gethers and Sone Aupiu are prototypical tackling machines, but the questions come up front, where three solid tackles are gone. Sanchez will be leaning on transfers such as Kaian Roberts-Day (UTSA).
David Yost's offense hinted at decent pass efficiency, but the run game stank, and the quarterbacks threw far too many picks. Either junior Adam Damante (decent in two late-season starts) or Trey Hedden (2,967 yards at Furman last year) will take the reins, and they might have a semi-promising receiving corps: Senior TK King is explosive (14.3 yards per catch), sophomore Brodie Malone-Bradford showed late-season promise, and Sanchez added six transfers at receiver and tight end. Will the run game have anything to offer? To be determined. The line returns only sophomore guard Mateo Rodriguez, but five transfers, including big UTEP starter James Williams and three FCS starters, are promising, and incoming running back James Jones averaged an eye-popping 9.8 yards per carry at Delaware State. Adding loads of transfers on a budget is tricky, but Sanchez added some pop on both sides of the ball.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Missouri State Bears
Head coach: Casey Woods (first year)
2026 projection: 126th in SP+, 3.9 average wins (2.8 in Conference USA)
Missouri State's FBS debut was similar to Delaware's on the field, with a five-game winning streak driving a 7-6 finish. But the offseason wasn't nearly as kind to the Bears, as head coach Ryan Beard left for Coastal Carolina and took the customary truckload of players with him. I like the Casey Woods hire: He was excellent as SMU's offensive coordinator, and he worked for the great Bill Clark at UAB. But his first starting lineup will be almost as new to Springfield as he is.
Slot receiver Jmariyae Robinson and running back Ramone Green Jr. are fun and semi-proven, but they're the only primary skill corps returnees.
Woods didn't load up on transfers in this area either, so new coordinator Mark Cala will need youngsters to fill in gaps. The offensive line will be almost completely new, with only one half-starter returning (guard Matthew Greene) and three transfers and a juco player coming in. Either Skyler Locklear (UTEP) or Henry Belin IV (Duke) will start at quarterback; both are seniors, and Locklear followed Cala from UTEP.
Woods saved a majority of his transfer budget for the defense. Only three of 16 defenders (and zero of seven linemen) with 200-plus snaps return. Grabbing a Miami (Ohio) starter in defensive end Josh Lukusa was a nice move, and taking flyers on players such as former blue-chip end Dylan Brooks (who missed the past two seasons with injury), corner Joel Boamah (great stats as a Kent State backup) and safety Xavian Michel (four INTs and six breakups as an NAIA freshman) made sense. But nickel Dylan Dixson and linebacker Jared Lloyd are the only proven playmakers.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Head coach: Derek Mason (third year, 6-17 overall)
2026 projection: 135th in SP+, 3.0 average wins (1.7 in Conference USA)
MTSU wasn't good in 2025, but the Blue Raiders were persistent. Even after a ghastly 34-14 loss to Austin Peay and four consecutive one-score losses midseason, they were still fighting hard enough to finish the year with back-to-back wins over Sam Houston and NMSU.
It would be a lot easier to turn that into reason for 2026 optimism if almost every starter from 2025 weren't gone. But as a thought experiment, here's my best stab at optimism:
Sophomore quarterback Roman Gagliano started both of those late wins and averaged both 7.0 yards per dropback and 8.3 yards per (non-sack) carry. He can move the chains with both arm and legs.
The top two RBs are gone, but sophomore DJ Taylor gained 253 yards from scrimmage in only 33 total touches, and transfers Antonio Martin (6.8 yards per carry at Kansas State) and Terrence Brown (10.5 yards per carry at Saginaw Valley State!) are explosive. The receiving corps got hit hard by attrition, but the most explosive player, slot Cam'ron Lacy, returns.
Edge rusher Reggie Johnson is excellent against the run and promising in pass rush, and the defensive line has at least four guys listed at 290 pounds or more. Run defense was a strength last season and could be again.
With sophomore Jackson Lowe and transfers Dyson McCutcheon (Washington), Ricky Lee (Sacramento State) and Jason Hardy (Grand Valley State), two solid starting cornerbacks should emerge.
Did I skip over a lot of positions there? Absolutely. The offensive line will be brand new, I'm not sure who else catches passes, and known defensive depth is minimal. There's a reason the Blue Raiders are projected 135th. But there are hints of potential in Murfreesboro.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Head coach: Phil Longo (second year, 2-10 overall)
2026 projection: 136th in SP+, 2.8 average wins (1.8 in Conference USA)
Despite a 10-win breakthrough in 2024, it was pretty easy to predict doom for SHSU last fall: Head coach K.C. Keeler left for Temple, the two-deep was decimated, the Bearkats had been one of 2024's luckiest teams, and thanks to Bowers Stadium renovations, they were playing their home games an hour and a half away in Houston.
Sure enough, 2025 was awful. The defense plummeted from 46th to 135th in SP+, and nine of the Bearkats' 10 losses came by at least 14 points. The season ended with a dire 56-16 "home" defeat to FIU in front of a crowd of 4,237.
Most CUSA teams hunted known mid-major or smaller-school producers in the portal, but although Phil Longo grabbed a few of those -- center Josiah Chenault (Kennesaw State), linebackers Brian Bates Jr. (Delaware State) and Mike King Jr. (Concordia-St. Paul), corners Ishmel Atkins (Elon) and Caesar Magee III (Northwestern State) -- he seemed more focused on pure athleticism. He grabbed more young, former power-conference signees than anyone in the conference.
Guys such as receiver Kyan Berry-Johnson (Wisconsin), offensive lineman Carter Kadow (Rutgers), defensive tackles Dimitry Nicolas (Maryland) and Justin Terrell (NC State), linebackers Jayden Fry (Boston College) and Elijah Groves (NC State) and nickel Stacy Bey (Arizona) should assure that the Bearkats look the part. But in pursuing potential over production, Longo might have assured a second straight transition year of sorts. Maybe that makes sense when you're counting on sophomore returnees such as quarterback Landyn Locke and outside linebacker Dean Ford, but it probably doesn't set up massive improvement in 2026. But hey, at least the Bearkats are back in Bowers Stadium. Their home games will be home games again.
One big anniversary
Thirty years ago, Conference USA football became a thing. As longtime independents began to scramble for homes during the conference realignment wave of the early 1990s, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss and Tulane -- all members of either the non-football Metro Conference or Great Midwest Conference and independents in football -- joined SWC castoff Houston as Conference USA's first cast of football characters. Jeff Bower's Southern Miss and Kim Helton's Houston tied for the title at 4-1 each.
Rather noticeably, none of these programs remains in Conference USA. Cincinnati and Louisville left for the Big East in 2005; Houston, Memphis and Tulane joined what was left of the Big East in the American in the 2010s; and Southern Miss moved over to the Sun Belt a few years ago.
This is Conference USA life, of course. At this point, of the 138 current teams in the FBS, a full 23% of them -- 32 in all -- have played CUSA football at some point in the past 30 years. Eighteen of them have won a conference title, too.
