It's the third straight week with a different No. 1 team atop the AP poll -- the first time in 14 years that has happened.
It's also the third straight week with a different No. 1 team leading our CFP projection -- from Texas to Georgia to Miami.
If you don't like the weather, give it a minute.
At the midpoint of the season, there's no clear-cut favorite, which makes for an interesting pack of teams on the bubble with one and two losses.
So how do they all stack up behind new No. 1-ranked Miami?
Below, you'll find each of the Power 4 conferences broken up into categories. The dreaded category of "Out" wishes teams with at least three losses better luck next year. You'll find the true contenders in the category of "In" for teams in this week's projection or "Wrong side of the bubble" for those just outside the bracket. In some cases, it's simply "Too early to tell," so we've also aptly named a category for those teams that still have a shot.
This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket
ACC
Spotlight: Miami. Nobody has a better chance to reach the CFP right now than Miami (94.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Canes are No. 5 in ESPN's strength of record metric but moved to the No. 1 spot in our latest projection because they're loaded with talent, are No. 2 in game control and are statistically dominant -- and because Georgia and Notre Dame lost. Miami has the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (48.5 points per game) and No. 7 scoring defense (14 PPG). The only game ESPN's FPI doesn't project the Canes to win is Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. Miami can afford to lose that game -- as long as it wins the ACC, which would lock up a CFP bid. If Miami stumbles in the ACC championship game, though, and finishes as a two-loss runner-up, it might not have enough on its résumé to impress the selection committee. The Sept. 18 win at Wake Forest could be a huge help in retrospect. If the Deacs make it to the ACC title game and pull off the upset, Miami could claim a regular-season win against the ACC champ, boosting its hopes of getting into the CFP with Wake Forest.
The enigma: Wake Forest. The Deacs have an impressive four road wins against Power 4 opponents, boosting their strength of record ranking to No. 11. That's ahead of Alabama, Utah and Notre Dame. Wake Forest and Miami are on a collision course to meet in the ACC championship game with the Deacs having the second-best chance (59.6%) behind the Canes to get there. Is Wake Forest really good enough, though, to pull off the upset and earn a CFP bid? Its only loss is a 33-20 defeat to the Canes, and Wake has won four straight games since then, including each of the past three by at least 24 points. There's a talent gap between Miami and Wake Forest, which is in only its second season under coach Jake Dickert. ESPN's FPI projects the Deacs to win each of their remaining games but expects a close one Nov. 14 at SMU. If Wake Forest can run the table to earn a rematch with Miami in the ACC title game, it will be one upset away from crashing the playoff party.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
Wrong side of the bubble: Wake Forest
Too early to tell: Duke, Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU
Out: Cal, Syracuse, Stanford, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Boston College, Virginia, Louisville
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. Following its win against Notre Dame on Saturday, BYU ranks No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric and has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game behind Texas Tech. The undefeated Cougars had been plugging along, finding ways to win against unranked opponents, but they needed a statement win to legitimize their place in the playoff race. It was the first major hurdle in what is essentially a three-pronged burden of proof: beat Notre Dame, win at Utah and lock up a CFP bid with the Big 12 title. Assuming BYU avoids a letdown, its next biggest task is on Nov. 7 at Utah, where ESPN's FPI gives the Utes a 55.8% chance to win. The question is whether BYU's win against Notre Dame will be enough to earn the Cougars an at-large bid even if they lose to Utah and don't make the Big 12 title game. Some of that depends on how the Irish fare down the stretch. Would the selection committee take three Big 12 teams? The league winner is a lock, the runner-up would get serious consideration -- and so would a one-loss BYU team that might be beaten only by the eventual Big 12 winner without playing in the conference title game.
The enigma: Utah. Yes, the Utes are undefeated with two Big 12 road wins ... but they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Utah's opponents have combined for a winning percentage of 46.2%, which ranks No. 115 in the country. And the Utes narrowly escaped a 2-4 Colorado team Saturday after squandering a 13-0 halftime lead that turned into an exhale after a failed Hail Mary. Utah's schedule ranks No. 102 in the country -- something that would be glaring in the committee meeting room. So while the Utes have been passing the eye test, there are still questions about what they'd look like against some of the higher-ranked contenders that have earned statement wins or lost against tougher teams. Utah will face its first ranked opponent Saturday against Houston before its rivalry game with BYU on Nov. 7 -- both home games. The next few weeks will reveal how seriously to take Utah in the national picture. The reality is its weaker lineup won't matter if it wins the Big 12. But how Utah fares against Houston and BYU will show how much margin for error it might have if it doesn't.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: BYU, Utah
Wrong side of the bubble: Texas Tech
Too early to tell: Houston, Arizona, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Kansas State
Out: Kansas, Colorado, West Virginia, TCU, Iowa State, Arizona State, UCF
Big Ten
Spotlight: Ohio State. That game against IU was so close -- by the out-of-bounds left foot of receiver Nick Marsh. How about a rematch of the instant classic? That's what's on tap, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Ohio State (83.2%) and Indiana (57.5%) the best chances to reach the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers on their home turf -- something nobody else had been able to do in 19 straight tries. It was costly, as starting quarterback Julian Sayin will miss at least several weeks with an injured right arm. But it was important enough to catapult the Buckeyes to No. 2 in our latest projection and essentially negate the head-to-head loss to Texas after the Longhorns suffered their second loss of the season. So the Buckeyes have earned their spot as the nation's top one-loss team and have a well-timed bye week to recover. It's not really getting much easier, though, with a Halloween trip to USC looming followed by a potential trap game against a simmering Oregon team. ESPN's FPI projects Ohio State will win all of its games.
The enigma: UCLA. If you're not taking the Bruins seriously yet in the playoff race, why not? They host Michigan State (2-5) and Nevada (2-4) over the next two weeks, and as long as they don't faceplant, the Bruins should be 8-0 heading into the first CFP ranking of the season. It's mind-boggling, though, to think that just a year ago this program won three games. Total. So it's only natural to wonder how long UCLA can keep this up, especially without injured starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The rest of the schedule, though, isn't that daunting, with the toughest remaining games Nov. 7 at Minnesota, Nov. 21 at Michigan and Nov. 28 against USC. It's not unrealistic for UCLA to be undefeated heading into its regular-season rivalry game against USC. And if that happens -- win or lose -- UCLA could be playing in the Big Ten title game.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA
Wrong side of the bubble: USC
Too early to tell: Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota, Oregon, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan
Out: Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Washington, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan State
SEC
Spotlight: Georgia. The Bulldogs' narrow home loss to Auburn knocked them out of the top spot, and the win against Alabama lost some of its impact after the Tide suffered a second loss. That leaves the SEC's best team looking up at leaders from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Notre Dame. Georgia has a bye week to recover and reset from its loss before entering a season-defining stretch against Florida, Ole Miss and Mizzou. Georgia still has the best chance of any team in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (66.3%), well above the next team, Tennessee, at 29%. The biggest impact from Saturday's loss to Auburn was Georgia's seeding path, as it bumped the Bulldogs out of the most coveted spot and entirely out of the first-round bye positions as a top-four seed. That can change, though, as Georgia still has a 39% chance to finish in the top four, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor -- third best in the FBS behind Ohio State and Miami.
The enigma: Alabama. Are the Crimson Tide really in trouble, or was that an injury-riddled anomaly? As far as the program goes, it's unusual: Bama hasn't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2007. Trying to get into the playoff with multiple losses isn't unusual, though. The Tide sneaked in last year with three losses after losing to Georgia in the conference championship game. The Tide's margin for error is almost nonexistent now because their chances of playing in the SEC championship game have significantly diminished with two league losses by mid-October. Bama certainly isn't out of the race -- so much depends on how other contenders fare and who it is ultimately being compared with -- but ESPN's FPI projects the Tide to lose at LSU on Nov. 7, and that could be an elimination game. Alabama currently has the ninth-best chance of reaching the CFP (48.6%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Tennessee
Wrong side of the bubble: Florida, Texas, Alabama, LSU
Too early to tell: Mississippi State, Missouri, Auburn
Out: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are guaranteed a spot in the playoff if they finish in the selection committee's top 12 on Selection Day -- but there's no guarantee they finish in the top 12, especially if they lose on Nov. 7 at home to Miami. The committee will have known everything it needs to about the close loss at BYU, including the Big 12's acknowledgment of the officiating error at the end of the game that should have put a second on the clock. Notre Dame should have had one more play to try to win the game. The committee has always considered how games are won and lost, so it will also know that Notre Dame trailed 21-10 at the half, turned the ball over in the red zone once and settled for field goals twice. This loss won't be the dagger that dooms the Irish, but if they suffer a double-digit home loss to the Canes, Notre Dame will open the door for debate. It will depend on the résumés of the other two-loss teams Notre Dame is being compared with, and whether the Irish have enough on the rest of their résumé to compensate for losing their two biggest games of the season.
Group of 6
Spotlight: Boise State. The Broncos have the second-best chance to reach the playoff behind James Madison, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but ESPN's FPI also gives Boise State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. If that holds, and both Boise State and JMU run the table, the selection committee will have a decision to make: go with the undefeated team as its top CFP contender, or the one-loss team that played a more challenging schedule. Historically, the groups have leaned toward the latter, and if Oregon continues to find ways to win and remain relevant in the CFP race, that will only make Boise State's 34-27 road loss to the Ducks look better. The Broncos could also wind up with a win against the American champs, if two-loss Memphis is able to run the table.
Enigma: James Madison. Since the playoff began in 2014, an undefeated record has never guaranteed anyone anything in the committee meeting room. (See: ACC champ Florida State in 2023.) That's been particularly true, though, at the Group of 6 level, where an undefeated record is quickly devalued by schedule strength. JMU currently ranks No. 131 out of 138 teams. By comparison, Boise State's schedule is No. 59, thanks in large part to that tough road trip to Oregon. How much will that change with a win at UConn on Nov. 14? Probably not enough to unseat Boise State. JMU can't win another game as narrowly as it did at Georgia Southern, a 27-24 win against a sub-.500 Sun Belt team. If JMU is going to legitimize its playoff hopes, it needs to run the table, win with style and hope Boise State loses again.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Boise State
Wrong side of the bubble: JMU
Bracket
Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 4 Notre Dame
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Indiana
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Indiana winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 11 Utah/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 BYU
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Kentucky/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Miami
