All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday's top batter prop bets
Samuel Basallo | OVER 0.5 HR (+760)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.91 EV
Rafael Devers | OVER 1.5 TB (+185)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.17 EV
Francisco Alvarez | UNDER 0.5 H (+197)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.19 EV
Jung Hoo Lee | OVER 1.5 TB (+218)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.71 EV
David Hamilton | UNDER 0.5 H (+121)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.99 EV
Thursday's top pitcher prop bets
Michael Soroka | OVER 5.5 K (+104)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.44 EV
Michael Soroka | UNDER 2.5 ER (-150)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.33 EV
Miles Mikolas | OVER 3.5 K (+107)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.66 EV
Jeffrey Springs | OVER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.03 EV
Hunter Dobbins | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.61 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season's play.
Kansas City Royals 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Royals have hit this bet in eight consecutive away games. (+8.15 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -125
Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total OVER:
Arizona has won this bet in 16 of their last 20 games. (+11.60 Units / 49% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -120
Colorado Rockies Moneyline:
The Rockies have won four of their last five road games. (+5.75 Units / 115% ROI). Current odds: +144
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline:
St. Louis is 8-2 in their last 10 road games. (+6.95 Units / 68% ROI). Current odds: +189
