All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Saturday's top batter prop bets
Munetaka Murakami | OVER 0.5 HR (+319)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.69 EV
Dansby Swanson | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.12 EV
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | OVER 1.5 TB (+224)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.84 EV
Steven Kwan | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+115)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.44 EV
Richie Palacios | UNDER 0.5 H (+132)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.10 EV
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Payton Tolle | UNDER 4.5 K (+122)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.77 EV
Logan Henderson | UNDER 4.5 K (+123)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.44 EV
Kai-Wei Teng | OVER 3.5 K (-140)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.22 EV
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 1.5 ER (+124)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.32 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline:
The Rays have won 11 straight games at home. (+11.00 Units / 76% ROI). Current odds: -148
Houston Astros Team Total Under:
The Astros have scored below their team total line in eight straight games. (+8.10 Units / 80% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -135
Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline:
This bet has won for the Athletics in 14 of their past 20 games. (+10.05 Units / 43% ROI). Current odds: -125
Milwaukee Brewers Run Line:
The Brewers have covered their run line in 10 of their past 15 games. (+7.85 Units / 46% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ -102
