All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday's top batter prop bets
Kevin McGonigle | OVER 0.5 HR (+1220)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.52 EV
Willi Castro | OVER 0.5 HR (+960)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.73 EV
Otto Lopez | OVER 0.5 RBI (+200)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.23 EV
Jakob Marsee | OVER 0.5 RBI (+285)
Projection: 28% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.84 EV
Keibert Ruiz | UNDER 0.5 H (+138)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.38 EV
Thursday's top pitcher prop bets
Jose Soriano | OVER 6.5 K (-102)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.38 EV
Jose Soriano | UNDER 2.5 ER (-151)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.18 EV
Joey Cantillo | UNDER 5.5 K (-153)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.07 EV
Casey Mize | UNDER 1.5 ER (+118)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.59 EV
Eduardo Rodriguez | OVER 5.5 K (+106)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.52 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Miami Marlins Game Total OVER:
The Marlins have seen this total go over in eight straight games. (+8.00 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -117
Detroit Tigers Team Total UNDER:
The Tigers have been under their team total in eight consecutive home contests. (+8.25 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -120
Colorado Rockies 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER:
The Rockies have his this over in eight of their last 10 road games. (+6.30 Units / 57% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -130
Washington Nationals 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The Nationals have won this bet in 11 of their last 15 games. (+6.15 Units / 34% ROI). Current odds: -0.5 @ +114
