MLB betting tips for Saturday: Sonny Gray to hold Guardians in check?

Sonny Gray has allowed five runs over his last four starts, spanning 21 innings. Bob DeChiara/Imagn Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Saturday's top batter prop bets

Eugenio Suarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+455)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.10 EV

Kody Clemens | OVER 0.5 RBI (+191)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.31 EV

Kyle Stowers | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+131)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.55 EV

Kyle Manzardo | UNDER 0.5 H (+118)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.36 EV

Rhys Hoskins | UNDER 0.5 H (+109)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.81 EV

Saturday's top pitcher prop bets

Drew Rasmussen | UNDER 5.5 K (+103)

Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.93 EV

Sonny Gray | UNDER 1.5 ER (+128)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.62 EV

Mitch Keller | OVER 2.5 ER (+111)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.59 EV

Brandon Sproat | UNDER 4.5 K (+116)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.33 EV

Peter Lambert | UNDER 2.5 ER (-102)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.82 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.

Tampa Bay Rays Run Line:
The Rays run line has hit in five straight home games. (+6.55 Units / 118% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ -111

Philadelphia Phillies Game Total Under:
Seven straight Phillies games have gone under the game total. (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -112

Athletics Team Total Under:
The A's have gone under the team total in six straight home games. (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -140

Houston Astros Team Total Over:
The Astros have gone over the team total in six straight games. (+6.20 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ +120

Cleveland Guardians Team Total Under:
The Guardians have gone under their team total in nine of their last 10 games. (+8.10 Units / 73% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -130

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