All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday's top batter prop bets
Samuel Basallo | OVER 0.5 HR (+564)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.00 EV
Jonny DeLuca | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.44 EV
Nicky Lopez | UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+131)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.30 EV
Hunter Goodman | OVER 0.5 RBI (+201)
Projection: 41% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.49 EV
Jung Hoo Lee | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.82 EV
Thursday's top pitcher prop bets
Bryce Miller | UNDER 6.5 K (-161)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.21 EV
David Peterson | OVER 4.5 K (+119)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.85 EV
Framber Valdez | UNDER 2.5 ER (-117)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.31 EV
Sean Manaea | OVER 4.5 K (-144)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.62 EV
Reid Detmers | OVER 6.5 K (+103)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.65 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Boston Red Sox Run Line:
Boston has won this bet in five straight games away from Fenway Park. (+6.25 Units / 123% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -158
Miami Marlins Moneyline:
Miami is looking to extend a five-game winning streak. (+5.30 Units / 94% ROI). Current odds: +123
Detroit Tigers Team Total OVER:
The Tigers have gone over this total in five consecutive home contests. (+5.10 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -115
Colorado Rockies Run Line:
Colorado has won this bet in six consecutive road games. (+6.55 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -169
