All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Sunday's top batter prop bets
Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+454)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.56 EV
Michael Busch | OVER 0.5 RBI (+270)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.17 EV
Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI (-142)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.12 EV
Chandler Simpson | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-122)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.77 EV
Luis Lara | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-132)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.23 EV
Sunday's top pitcher prop bets
Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 9.5 K (-121)
Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.92 EV
Zack Wheeler | UNDER 7.5 K (-111)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.35 EV
Merrill Kelly | UNDER 3.5 K (+103)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.51 EV
Max Scherzer | OVER 2.5 ER (+106)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.34 EV
Sandy Alcantara | OVER 2.5 ER (-114)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.30 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Houston Astros Run Line:
The Astros have covered the run line in five straight home games. (+6.95 Units / 115% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ +107
St. Louis Cardinals 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Under:
The Cardinals have gone under their first five innings team total in nine straight games. (+9.30 Units / 82% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -140
Detroit Tigers Game Total Over:
Five straight Tigers games have gone over the total. (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI). Current odds: 11 @ -103
Boston Red Sox Moneyline:
The Red Sox have hit on the moneyline in 14 of their last 15 road games. (+13.65 Units / 69% ROI). Current odds: +138
Atlanta Braves Team Total Over:
The Braves have gone over their team total in 12 of their last 15 home games. (+8.75 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -105
