All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday's top batter prop bets
Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.33 EV
Eugenio Suarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+365)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.32 EV
Bryce Harper | OVER 0.5 RBI (+200)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.02 EV
Trea Turner | OVER 0.5 RBI (+238)
Projection: 35% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.52 EV
Henry Davis | OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI (-112)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.03 EV
Thursday's top pitcher prop bets
Justin Wrobleski | UNDER 5.5 K (-154)
Projection: 95% chance of this bet hitting, with a $87.71 EV
Kyle Harrison | OVER 4.5 K (-139)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.88 EV
Framber Valdez | OVER 4.5 K (+121)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.30 EV
Erick Fedde | OVER 3.5 K (+107)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.90 EV
Aaron Nola | UNDER 5.5 K (-143)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.82 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Kansas City Royals Game Total UNDER:
Games involving the Royals have gone under this total 10 straight times. (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: 9 @ -115
San Diego Padres 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in seven consecutive contests. (+7.10 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: -0.5 @ -115
Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total UNDER:
The Dodgers have gone under this total in five straight games. (+5.05 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 5.5 @ -115
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline:
Tampa Bay is looking to extend their five-game winning streak. (+5.00 Units / 57% ROI). Current odds: -286
