We usually talk about the College Football Playoff, the national title race and the Heisman Trophy for this piece, but I want to take this in a different direction this week.
A couple of those conversations are getting repetitive. For now, Jeremiah Smith is still the Heisman favorite, while the national title odds have the same usual suspects up at the top as last week: Notre Dame, Miami and Ohio State.
So let's look beyond the usual names: Boise State, New Mexico, Oregon State, UTSA and Louisiana Tech. Why them?
All five have only lost to Power Four opponents, and are making a case as possible playoff contenders. That gets my attention, but it doesn't automatically get my money.
Here's where the teams (and their prices) separate.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
New Mexico: The strongest conference prediction
I don't love laying -172 on a futures ticket. I get that. But its defense gives me the most material to trust.
The Lobos can defend the run, cover receivers and generate pressure. Their only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma and the defensive strength holds up after adjusting for opponents. This isn't just a team beating up on bad offenses.
The remaining schedule generally fits, too. San Jose State, Nevada and Wyoming have passing limitations, while UNLV and Air Force visit Albuquerque. New Mexico shouldn't regularly need 35 points to win, which is a good thing because the passing offense is their primary concern.
Long third downs can become dead possessions, and the 21-16 win over North Dakota State showed how tight things can get.
Still, the Lobos lead the Mountain West and have already beaten a principal challenger. At -172, New Mexico isn't a bargain, but it is my most defensible pick. I trust its defense and remaining path more than I like the price.
Boise State: Solid, but not untouchable
Boise State at +105 is my preferred playoff option from this group. The Broncos are already ranked, have beaten Memphis and the run game gives them a dependable starting point.
But the coverage is vulnerable. The Broncos have a couple of spots where that could come into play. Boise heads to Colorado State in a couple of weeks -- a team averaging 39 points per game -- then gets Oregon State the week after that, an offense that leads in yards per play, passing yards and the fourth-most points per game.
At -142 to win the Pac-12, Boise is a reasonable favorite, not an automatic purchase. The +105 playoff ticket pays more but adds another consideration: Whether a contender from another conference finishes with a stronger case.
Oregon State: The upset threat worth watching
Oregon State is why I'm not treating Boise like it has already won the conference. Beavers QB Braden Atkinson has 24 touchdown passes against two interceptions, while true freshman WR Jesse Legree has become a weekly problem for defenses. This is a weekly highlight reel of an offense that should be given the attention and respect it deserves.
Their best weapon also attacks Boise's biggest weakness: the secondary. Oregon State has a specific way to win that matchup, which makes it more interesting than a generic upset pick. The problem is on the other side, as the Beavers struggle against the run and getting off the field which gives Boise a clear way to answer.
The +132 price to win the Pac-12 is the market already recognizing Oregon State as Boise's main challenger. The +750 playoff ticket requires even more to go right.
I like the matchup more than either future. There's no line yet for the Nov. 14 trip to Boise, but Oregon State as an underdog is worth revisiting when the line is out. Considering the OVER on the point total will almost certainly make my long list of options that week.
UTSA: I'm not buying the record
UTSA is 7-1 with its only loss at Texas. The run game is excellent and wins against Colorado State and Navy deserve credit, but +154 to win the American is short for a team with this many uncomfortable games behind (and potentially ahead) of it.
Four of its seven wins were within one score. Their protection and passing game are less dependable than their rushing attack, while the defense lets opponents hang around.
North Texas is the biggest remaining obstacle. UTSA gets that game at home, but Mean Green QB Tayven Jackson gives UNT the passing game I trust more if both teams go score-for-score. Florida Atlantic can make the preceding road game competitive, too.
Yes, UTSA can win the conference. I'm passing because +154 doesn't offer enough compensation for its weaknesses. The +600 playoff price doesn't change my mind either.
Louisiana Tech: Improvement isn't enough
Louisiana Tech has won four straight, including consecutive shutouts. Deserving of attention? Sure. Deserving of a futures recommendation? Nope.
The Bulldogs have an encouraging run defense, but the pass rush is modest and the run blocking is a concern. Wins over Army and Louisiana came by a combined three points, and trips to LSU and Baylor ended in double-digit losses.
The next two games at South Alabama and Troy should tell us more about whether the recent improvement travels. Right now, I see a team getting better, not one with a clear advantage. Louisiana Tech simply stays on the watchlist.
Futures prediction: New Mexico to win Mountain West ... but how do you play it?
New Mexico is my conference pick, but -172 isn't a bargain. You don't have to buy that ticket to back the same idea weekly.
I would start with the opponent team-total UNDERs, particularly against limited passing offenses like San Jose State Spartans and Wyoming Cowboys. That lets us trust the defense without asking the Lobos' offense to deliver.
Against Nevada Wolfpack and UNLV Rebels, full-game UNDERs could make sense because both defenses can frustrate the opposing offense.
On spreads, I prefer New Mexico laying a manageable number, not multiple touchdowns. These are markets to check, not automatic bets. The number still has to make sense.
