We're entering Week 11 of the college football season, and yet, somehow less time means more questions. Nobody seems to know what to do with the Heisman, and I'm not seeing a price worth chasing right now.
For the record, Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (+220), Miami QB Darian Mensah (+250) and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+280) are the three favorites.
The national title board hasn't moved enough to change my mind, either. So, let's look elsewhere.
Who will make the playoff? Who will win their conference? Between the remaining schedules and tiebreakers, there's plenty to sort through before we put money on any of it.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
What I'm doing with the MAC and American
I went into the MAC thinking 7-2 Ohio might be the play. The Bobcats are undefeated in conference play, host Toledo (7-2 overall, 4-1 MAC) in Week 13 and boom: +295 to win it. There's something there.
But then I looked at how those teams match up, and Toledo's defense kept getting in the way. Ohio wants to run. Toledo is really good at stopping it, and it also has a much better passing game. So now I'm looking at Ohio's bigger payout and asking whether I actually like the matchup or just the number.
Toledo at +146 isn't exactly giving us some huge discount. Western Michigan (6-3, 4-1 MAC) has a manageable schedule left, but I don't trust its offense as much. I can make a case for all three getting to the championship game. I'm less interested in paying these prices to find out which one does.
Memphis (7-2, 4-1 AAC) was the team I kept looking at in the American. I like Marcus Stokes and the passing game. I trust the Tigers' pass defense more than North Texas' or UTSA's. But Memphis still has to go to South Florida and Navy. Those aren't games I'm just checking off, especially with a run defense that can be pushed around.
Then there are the tiebreakers. Memphis doesn't play North Texas or UTSA. All three could finish 7-1 in conference, and suddenly we're talking about ranking and computer formulas instead of who beat whom. After one team gets selected, the process starts over for the other spot. Fun stuff!
That means +200 must pay for more than winning one game in December. We could be right about how good Memphis is and still never get that championship matchup. For now, I'm passing on both conferences.
Futures prediction: Wake Forest to win the ACC (+255)
I know, Miami already beat Wake Forest, so why would I bet on a rematch? Because I don't think that one game tells us everything about the gap between these two.
Miami won 33-20, partially by shutting down Wake's run game. But Wake has improved its passing offense and strengthened its ground game over the season.
The schedule hasn't been loaded, so there's some caution with those numbers. Still, there's enough here for me to like another shot at Miami. Miami WR Malachi Toney being out is something to watch. He hurt Wake in the first meeting. But we don't know when he's coming back, and I'm not making a December bet on the assumption that he won't be there.
First, Wake has to get there. Win at SMU, win at Georgia Tech, beat Duke and it's in. That's the clean version. If Wake loses once, we're back in tiebreaker land.
The ACC has teams playing different numbers of conference games, and a 7-2 record doesn't automatically beat 6-2. Head-to-head comes first, but depending on who's involved, a ranking formula could decide the spot. So no, I'm not calling this an easy path.
I'm predicting +255 because the Demon Deacons can finish the job and give Miami a much better game the second time.
