Seattle Mariners RHP Andres Munoz saved 38 wins with a 1.73 ERA last season, and fantasy managers made the two-time AL All-Star one of the most sought-after closers for this season. It made sense. Munoz, 27, entered this season with a 2.43 ERA (2.68 FIP), 1.04 WHIP and 78 saves over more than 250 career innings. He was supposed to be one of the safe closers that nobody -- the Mariners or fantasy managers -- would need to worry about.
The current version of Munoz lugs a 5.18 ERA and 1.36 into Tuesday's game against the Baltimore Orioles, having blown three of his past six save chances, including Sunday against Kevin McGonigle and the Detroit Tigers. Munoz issued walks to Nos. 8 and 9 hitters Zach McKinstry (hitting .165) and Wenceel Perez (.178) before McGonigle's two-run single turned a 4-3 Mariners lead into a 5-4 loss. Munoz threw only eight of 19 pitches for strikes. He rebounded Monday in Baltimore for his 10th save, but even then he threw only 11 of 20 pitches for strikes.
What's interesting about Munoz, who has already permitted more earned runs this season in 24 1/3 innings than he did all last season in 62 1/3 innings, is the underlying numbers are far from alarming. Munoz boasts the highest strikeout rate of his career (and top 10 among relievers this season), a decreased walk rate and a higher swinging strikeout rate. His fastball velocity has risen from the past two seasons, but he has also permitted four home runs, double last season's mark. Munoz is not inducing many ground balls, and he isn't forcing weak contact versus his fastball, which he is throwing less because it is getting hammered. Left-handed hitters are enjoying his work with a .271/.364/.542 line.
The Mariners, notably, have been trying to find ways to fit six starting pitchers into a five-man rotation. It seems unlikely this arrangement would affect the back of the bullpen. What RHPs Eduard Bazardo and Matt Brash and LHPs Jose Ferrer and Gabe Speier are doing, however, might. Bazardo boasts 12 holds, among the league leaders, though he has also been far more effective versus left-handed pitching. Ferrer, acquired from the Washington Nationals in December, has held lefties to a .254/.267/.288 line. Brash and Speier have been effective, too. Seattle's bullpen ERA is second best at 3.15, and that is with Munoz and his bloated mark.
There is little indication the Mariners have even begun thinking about removing Munoz from the closer role, so fantasy managers shouldn't panic. Then again, even on Monday, Munoz wasn't sharp, lacking command of his fastball, though he earned his first save since May 22. It may seem like a good time to buy low on Munoz, because how can someone this good have an ERA that bad, but let's not be so sure. There remains reason for concern.
Stock rising
Jhoan Duran, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Duran, 28, leads all relief pitchers in ESPN fantasy points over the past 30 days, permitting one earned run over 13 innings (0.69 ERA) and accumulating 21 strikeouts in that span. Duran was not among the first five relief pitchers in ESPN's projections or ADP (Munoz was No. 2 behind Mason Miller), but we must view him this way now. Duran should become the first Phillies relief pitcher to reach 30 saves (this is a great trivia question!) since journeyman Jeanmar Gomez in 2016.
Josh Hader, LHP, Houston Astros
Hader, 32, finally made his season debut last week, after biceps tendinitis cost him months. Hader overpowered the Pittsburgh Pirates and Athletics, earning one save, and then he won Monday's game against the Los Angeles Angels. He has fanned seven of 10 hitters so far. Should we view Hader, annually one of the top relievers in fantasy drafts, as a top-five option again? Now is a wise time to get Hader, who remains available in more than 25% of ESPN standard leagues.
Yoendrys Gomez, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Gomez, 26, already quite the journeyman while performing for five big-league clubs the past two seasons, has permitted one earned run over his past 17 appearances spanning 16 innings (0.56 ERA). He's still a walker and he has allowed five home runs to left-handed hitters, but Gomez has scored more ESPN fantasy points over the past 30 days than all but five pure relievers, including Mason Miller. Don't expect 20 saves or 20 holds, but the fact that the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays all employed him in the past calendar year is a sign that those organizations saw something. Perhaps this run of dominance continues.
Stock falling
Every Cincinnati Reds reliever except RHP Emilio Pagan
Pagan, 35, could begin a rehab assignment this week, as a hamstring injury forced his injured list stint five weeks ago. Since then, most Reds relievers have fallen upon tough times. RHP Tony Santillan sports a brutal 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 30 days, and he has allowed nine home runs in 24 1/3 innings this season. RHPs Graham Ashcraft and Pierce Johnson are injured. LHP Sam Moll has the only Reds save in three weeks, and he also lost two games this past weekend. Pagan should return to closing as soon as he rejoins the roster, which might be in a week.
Every Athletics reliever except RHP Justin Sterner
LHP Hogan Harris, 29, blew the ninth-inning lead in what became a fascinating, 15-14 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in 12 innings on Monday, his ERA rising to 2.84. Harris leads the Athletics with five saves. Meanwhile, RHP Scott Barlow has permitted six runs over his past two outings. RHP Jack Perkins is starting. RHP Joel Kuhnel got dumped and traded to the Brewers last week. The RHP Sterner, 29, earned his first save last week in a 10-inning win at Wrigley Field, and he has allowed only one run during the past four weeks. He's not a big swing-and-miss option, though, so chances are adding him will only cause distress. Stay away from RHP Kirby Yates and the Angels bullpen, too, as well as (always) the Colorado Rockies.
