Our 2015-16 ESPN Fantasy Basketball top 200 rankings are now posted, and for the most part I'm on board with what I see.
As always, there's a premium on point guards who bury the 3-ball and make loads of assists, as well as big men who not only tear down rebounds but also protect the rim by blocking shots. For as much as the rankings are based on projected stats and roles, though, there's also a subjective element that's always present in fantasy rankings.
Some people might envision D'Angelo Russell coming in and putting up big numbers as a rookie playing alongside Kobe Bryant in Los Angeles, for example. I'm not on board with that, given how much Kobe demands the ball and how well Jordan Clarkson ran the point for the Lakers last season. This is merely one example, and many more are out there.
Here's a look at five players I believe are ranked too high and five others who are ranked too low:
Overrated
Serge Ibaka | Oklahoma City Thunder | No. 17
I know there's a lot to like about a big man who blocks shots (2.4 per game in 2014-15) and hits 3-pointers (1.2 per game last season), but a closer look at the numbers gives reason to think twice before drafting him with your second-round pick. Even with Kevin Durant out for all but 27 games and Russell Westbrook missing 15 games last season, Ibaka's numbers dropped in almost every major category: field goal percentage (53.6 to 47.6), scoring (15.1 to 14.3), rebounds (8.8 to 7.8). On top of that, his blocks per game declined for a fourth straight season. With 2014 first-rounder Mitch McGary having shown some promise late last season, I could see the rugged big man cutting into Ibaka's minutes -- even if only slightly -- and making it difficult for the Thunder's starting power forward to equal last season's stats.
LaMarcus Aldridge | San Antonio Spurs | No. 20
One of the reasons why Aldridge was able to put up such impressive numbers in Portland for so many years was the lack of depth on the Trail Blazers' roster. Seemingly every season, Aldridge was counted on to play huge minutes in the Rose City. In fact, last season was his seventh straight averaging more than 35.4 minutes per game. It should also be noted that Aldridge never played more than 74 games in any of the past four campaigns. After he finished 2014-15 ranked No. 22 on ESPN's Player Rater, I expect his minutes to be closer to the 30-32 MPG range as he shares the Spurs' frontcourt with veterans Tim Duncan and David West, and I also expect his usage rate to decline sharply from last season's mark of 27.6 in a Spurs offense that emphasizes ball movement and sharing the basketball.
Hassan Whiteside | Miami Heat | No. 28
If everything goes right with Whiteside this season, this ranking is actually too low. Let's get that straight; he has the ability to be a top-10 fantasy player not only this season, but for the foreseeable future. My concern is the risk that comes with Whiteside. His maturity was a big problem last season, and injuries continue to be a major issue. The latest, a calf strain, has sidelined him through the opening weeks of training camp. If Whiteside can stay on the court this season, he can carry you in blocks and rebounds, but he also has the potential to go bust, which is hard to afford from this high of a draft pick.
Kenneth Faried | Denver Nuggets | No. 37
If you draft Faried in the fourth round, you are banking on a big rebound season. That's really the best way to put it. The energy and effort "The Manimal" was known for in his first three NBA seasons went missing under coach Brian Shaw, and will have to return this season under defensive-minded coach Michael Malone if the undersized power forward wants to get back in the good graces of the Nuggets. Problem is, even if that happens, we're talking about a player who has never averaged more than 28.1 minutes a game in a season and is basically just a rebounder (8.7 RPG in his four NBA seasons) for fantasy purposes. He doesn't shoot free throws well (65.4 percent in his career). He doesn't pass much (1.1 career APG). He doesn't block a lot of shots or grab a bunch of steals (both 0.9 per game in his career). I'd have him ranked a good 30-40 slots lower.
Reggie Jackson | Detroit Pistons | No. 42
Jackson is one of those guys I loved when he was overlooked as a reserve in Oklahoma City, but I'm not nearly as high on as a projected fourth-round pick as the starting point guard in Detroit. Jackson is a born scorer who averaged 17.6 points and 9.2 assists in 27 games with the Pistons last season, and he certainly can put up numbers whenever he gets big minutes, but two things concern me. For one, he has never been a big 3-point threat, and it's difficult to draft a point guard this high who doesn't make many 3s. Secondly, and more importantly, is the fact that Brandon Jennings (Achilles) could return as early as the beginning of December, and once that happens Jackson's minutes and usage rate will likely both take a big hit.
Underrated
Chris Bosh | Miami Heat | No. 34
Before Bosh's 2014-15 season ended abruptly when blood clots traveled to his lungs, putting his life at risk, the 10-time NBA All-Star was having a great season. In 44 games, he averaged 21.1 points, 7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and -- here's the kicker -- a career-high 1.4 3-pointers made per game. Now fully recovered, his health will be the key going forward, obviously, but doctors have told him he doesn't carry the genetic traits that make him a likely candidate for a recurrence of clots. That's encouraging news for a big man the caliber of Bosh who provides scoring, rebounding, a high free throw percentage for a big man (79.9 percent for his career) and a steady source of shots from behind the 3-point arc.
Andrew Wiggins | Minnesota Timberwolves | No. 61
You couldn't have asked for more out of Wiggins as a rookie. He played all 82 games. He averaged 16.9 points while shooting almost 44 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3-point land. He averaged 4.6 rebounds a game, and 2.1 assists on top of that. And he even showed an ability to rack up steals, averaging one per game. To think, he spent all but the final two months of the season still age 19. Expect all these numbers to rise in his second year, and his April numbers (consisting of eight games) could be a good place to start in terms of expectations: 41.1 MPG, 23.3 PPG, 6 RPG, 4 APG, 1 SPG. Shooting guard is a thin position in fantasy hoops, which is another reason why Wiggins is worth drafting 20-30 spots ahead of his ranking.
Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | No. 64
At age 20, "The Alphabet" already has two impressive NBA seasons under his belt and has proved himself to be a quick learner. Given his rare skill set for someone his size -- 6-foot-11, 222 pounds -- it's fun to think about what his future holds. After averaging 12.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1 BPG and 0.9 SPG in just more than 31 minutes a game last season, I expect him to continue to stuff the stat sheet and, if all goes as planned, add the 3-point shot to his game in 2015-16. He has a decent chance to be a top-15 fantasy player in another year or two, making him a great pick in keeper leagues, and you'll likely have to draft him 10-20 spots higher than his ranking if you want him on your team this season.
Michael Carter-Williams | Milwaukee Bucks | No. 88
It's not ideal to draft point guards who don't shoot the 3-ball well, and Carter-Williams certainly fits that description. He was a 25.2 percent shooter from long range in his first two NBA seasons. But here's the thing -- MCW stuffs the stat sheet in so many other ways, averaging right around 15 points, 6 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals per game, that he's worth taking if he drops in your draft. There are some encouraging things about his play under Jason Kidd, too. He cut down on his 3-point attempts drastically after the midseason trade to the Bucks, allowing his field goal percentage to rise to a respectable 42.9 percent in his 25 games with Milwaukee. If he can carry that over to this season, MCW has a chance to be an absolute steal at this spot in the draft.
Elfrid Payton | Orlando Magic | No. 100
Like Carter-Williams, Payton isn't a 3-point shooter at this stage in his career. In fact, he made just 11 as a rookie last season. But he is also a player who quietly finished among the top 10 in both assists and steals in his first season in the NBA. That's very impressive, no matter how you look at it. His poor free throw shooting and lack of a 3-point presence have drawn comparisons to Rajon Rondo, but I seem to remember a younger Rondo leading plenty of fantasy teams to the championship. Just 21 years old, Payton knows he can play in this league, and I expect his numbers to see a nice bump in his second season. If he can average 10 PPG, 5 RPG, 7 APG and 2 SPG, it's hard to view him as anything other than a top 50 fantasy player even with his shooting deficiencies.
