You can't agree on everything.
If you've been married for more than 10 years and haven't logged at least 10 to 20 hours of marriage counseling, you're living a lie. And you can't help put together a list of auction values for ESPN.com without having a few spirited bifurcations of opinion.
Every year, I spend a good amount of time putting together my personal spreadsheet of auction values. So that I can implement it in endeavors such as the one you're currently reading, I base it on the 10-team, 13-man, $200-budget format.
More than anything, I strive to prevent overvaluation of the top 25 players. It's just simple economics. A 10-team league only has $2,000 to spend on a certain amount of production (Player Rater points), spread across 130 producers (players).
In my opinion, you should never spend more than $70 on a single player. A player would have to finish the season with 31 Player Rater points to be worth $70. That's 1961-1962 Oscar Robertson territory. I do allow for a markup on premium players. You're paying a premium for a certain piece of mind, knowing that you're getting players that will anchor your squad.
But at the same time, the more your league overpays for players Nos. 1 to 25, the more they'll have to underpay for players Nos. 26 to 130.
We've all witnessed those moments at the end of a draft, where someone sneaks, say, Rudy Gay past the goalie for $15. In those brief moments, the time-space continuum seems to wobble. Rudy Gay for $15 just doesn't seem possible. But it happens, because everyone's gone hog wild for players Nos. 1 to 25.
So, with that in mind, let's take a quick trip through the players I believe we at ESPN may have undervalued and overvalued.
Undervalued
Point guard
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors (ESPN value: $21; Cregan value: $32)
The market at point guard is a little funky this year. Once we fall beyond John Wall/Damian Lillard territory, it's anarchy. At the same time, I don't want to pay what it will take to get Stephen Curry, and the other tier 1-2 point guards all sport red flags in various shades.
On the other hand, Lowry keeps staking a claim to be the most perennially underrated point guard in fantasy. Lowry's second-half swoon in 2014-15, coupled with his slightly off-the-grid place of work, have conspired to drive his value down by 50 percent.
He's pushing 30 years old. That's a dangerous time for many point guards. But Lowry has lost weight and leads all scorers this preseason with 30.3 points per game. Bid with confidence.
Other undervalued PGs:
Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies (ESPN $9/Cregan $25)
Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns (ESPN $13/Cregan $23)
Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets (ESPN $8/Cregan $22)
Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings (ESPN $0/Cregan $13)
Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans (ESPN $2/Cregan $9)
Trey Burke, Utah Jazz (ESPN $1/Cregan $7)
Shooting guard
C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers (ESPN $5; Cregan $14)
There isn't a ton of premium depth at shooting guard this season. As a matter of fact, from top to bottom, shooting guard is the thinnest position in fantasy. That is why I'm placing extra value on players with dual PG/SG eligibility. I love being able to slide certain stats in and out of my guard slots as needed. I'm also placing extra value on shooting guards with upside -- players who haven't reached their statistical ceiling who can still be had a decent price.
McCollum checks both of those boxes.
I've been waiting on McCollum to fulfill his Lillard-esque promise since he came into the league. Portland is wide-open territory for fantasy production this season. This will be your last chance to get him this cheap.
Other undervalued SGs:
Monta Ellis (ESPN $15/Cregan $21)
Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs (ESPN $12/Cregan $17)
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves (ESPN $8/Cregan $13)
Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks (ESPN $4/Cregan $17)
Arron Afflalo, New York Knicks (ESPN $4/Cregan $8)
J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers (ESPN $2/Cregan $8)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets (ESPN $0/Cregan $3)
Small forward
Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets (ESPN $2/Cregan $19)
This is the big short. Ariza is one of those guys like Lowry and Conley who always go for at least 50 percent less than they're worth. Yes, Ariza was a little lackluster out of the gate last season. But he shook off his post-getting-paid hangover by All-Star Weekend and rewarded owners with his typical elite production in steals (1.9 SPG) and 3s (2.4 3s per game).
Ariza's looked great in preseason. He plays on a high-pace team and should average about 35 minutes a night. I snagged Ariza for $9 late in an expert draft last night and was overjoyed with a dash of giddy.
Other undervalued SFs:
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings (ESPN $26/Cregan $32)
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets (ESPN $16/Cregan $23)
Thaddeus Young, Brooklyn Nets (ESPN $3/Cregan $7)
Power forward
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (ESPN $6/Cregan $20)
I'm not betting on the wheels falling off with Duncan. As in never.
Remember, Duncan is the only big in the history of everything to actually improve in certain statistical areas with age. I still get numerical shivers looking at his leap in free-throw percentage. The Elder King finished 2014-15 as the fourth-best power forward on the Player Rater. I don't have him playing 77 games again, and LaMarcus Aldridge will take away frontcourt touches, but Duncan is still a top-eight player at PF and has center eligibility.
Other undervalued PFs:
Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns (ESPN $3/Cregan $12)
Robert Covington (ESPN $1/Cregan $9)
Nikola Mirotic (ESPN $4/Cregan $9)
Al-Farouq Aminu, Portland Trail Blazers (ESPN $0/Cregan $3)
Center
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks (ESPN $14/Cregan $25)
On one level, I get it. Horford's battled various injuries over the past couple of seasons. He doesn't play a ton of minutes (30.5 MPG in 2014-15). And his volume-based numbers are trending down (15.2 PTS, 7.2 REB in 2014-15). But for owners who crave atypical, high-efficiency production, Atlanta is dinner. Horford will still get you a steal and a block per game. Plus, he provides solid percentages.
But where Horford really intrigues is in the atypical areas. He averaged 3.2 assists in 2014-15. That's top-three assist production at his position (behind Marc Gasol and Joakim Noah). Now, all signs point toward Horford upping his 3-point production. He's averaging 1.0 3-pointers per game this preseason, which would put him in Serge Ibaka territory (in terms of being the best really, really big 3-point shooters in the NBA).
Other undervalued Cs:
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks (ESPN $7/Cregan $19)
Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves (ESPN $4/Cregan $21)
Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards (ESPN $2/Cregan $18)
Tyson Chandler, Phoenix Suns (ESPN $1/Cregan $7)
Overvalued
Point guard
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (ESPN $54/Cregan $42)
This is partially about overpaying for premium players. But it's also about prizing efficiency over raw volume. People have been looking at the projected 25.9 PPG and going berserk. But Lillard getting the greenest of green lights scares me just a little. I think he'll be a field-goal percentage albatross and will make a dent in turnover leagues. He's a mediocre 3-point shooter for a PG (.343 in 2014-15) and should up his attempts in 2015-16.
Other overvalued PGs:
John Wall, Washington Wizards (ESPN $54/Cregan $45)
Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns (ESPN $29/Cregan $26)
Shooting guard
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls (ESPN $48/Cregan $38)
Don't get me wrong here. I love Jimmy Butler. But remember two numbers: 67 and 65, the amount of games Butler logged the past two seasons, respectively. The per-game numbers will be boffo. I think Fred Hoiberg's offense is going to goose the Bulls' fantasy production from top to bottom. I think Pau Gasol and Mirotic are both great targets. But any player who enters his peak production years (where the per-game numbers dazzle) and misses 20 percent of his games is a risk.
Other overvalued SGs:
Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz (ESPN $30/Cregan $24)
Small forward
LeBron James (ESPN $61/Cregan $53)
I feel funny even writing this. James is still a transcendent talent and top-12 player. But the miles are starting to add up; LeBron only played 69 games last season. And he's already received treatment for a back issue.
He's still LeBron, but it's undeniable that his numbers are trending down. LeBron's .488 FG percentage and .710 FT percentage were his lowest since 2007-08. Other than assists, his volume-based stats all took a hit last season. As he ages -- and Irving and Love hit their peak production -- LeBron's value will continue to dip. And the missed games mean a lot in fantasy. He's still a top-12 player. But a couple of years ago, the argument was LeBron or Durant for No. 1 overall. Now it's going to be, who's the best fantasy player on the Cavaliers? This could be the season Irving takes over.
You're going to have to overpay for the brand name. Save your money.
Other overvalued SFs:
Paul George, Indiana Pacers (ESPN $46/Cregan $40)
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks (ESPN $39/Cregan $34)
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors (ESPN $36/Cregan $31)
Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks (ESPN $27/Cregan $20)
Power forward
LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs (ESPN $38/Cregan $25)
I already wrote why I'm so down on Aldridge. He's going from a high-volume, high-MPG situation to a Gregg Popovich situation. Aldridge's fantasy production relies on volume and inefficient 2-point jumpers. And there's still that Duncan guy to share the ball with. Aldridge will be an important part of a championship contender. But he was only the 11th-best PF last season and will struggle to be top-15 this season.
Other overvalued PFs:
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers (ESPN $44/Cregan $32)
Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder (ESPN $38/Cregan $30)
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (ESPN $36/Cregan $26)
Center
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (ESPN $45/Cregan $28)
There's a lot of value out there at center in 2015-16. Especially with young, shot-blocking centers. Think about it; you've got Gobert, Anthony Davis, Noel, Ibaka, Andre Drummond, Dieng, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan and Karl-Anthony Towns. I like Gobert. But there's just no reason to pay a big markup on any of these guys. The market is oversaturated. Oh, and by the way, Gobert has not been great this preseason.
That's why I'm especially wary of bigs who get a lot of fantasy buzz based off one big half-season. This is probably before most of you were born, but I'm still haunted by the ghosts of Mikki Moore and Erick Dampier.
