Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic.
Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Eric Karabell and Kyle Soppe, plus SportsCenter anchor and former Fantasy Focus Basketball Podcast co-host Doug Kezirian.
The top two rookies being taken in ESPN drafts are the Philadelphia 76ers' Ben Simmons (ADP: 49) and Los Angeles Lakers' Lonzo Ball (ADP: 54). Both players are expected to have their hands on the rock plenty but also have serious questions about their shooting abilities. Which player do you think finishes higher on the Player Rater at season's end and why?
Eric Karabell: I believe both Simmons and Ball are being drafted a bit too aggressively in ESPN leagues, because shooting percentages count and it's not so easy to contend in those categories -- both field goal and free throw percentages -- with anchors dragging them down. However, I think Simmons has a better chance of scoring at least 12 points per night and augmenting his numbers with rebounds, based on how he acted this preseason and the talent around him.
Simmons should be durable. It was one foot injury, and that's it. Not that Ball is brittle or won't want to rebound, but since there remains some concern about how many games Philadelphia's best player (Joel Embiid) will be permitted to compete in, Simmons should have greater immediate upside. Teams won't even cover him in the half-court game due to his shooting issues, but he'll get to the hoop aggressively, and I predict at least 12 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists as an average, with more than a few triple-doubles thrown in.
With Ball, he has rebounders around him. He has scorers. And he's going to be a worse shooter than Simmons. Jason Kidd was a valuable fantasy option despite shooting 40 percent from the field for his career. Ball will get there, but Simmons is closer.
Kyle Soppe: The right pick here is Ball ... and that's coming from someone who is a card-holding member of the Ben Simmons Fan Club. Simmons is going to be special, and I expect we see flashes of that this season, but our Player Rater rewards being on the court, and Simmons just comes with significantly more risk in that area.
Yes, I understand that Ball is dealing with a balky ankle right now, but when evaluating health concerns for the season as a whole, Simmons is more a roll of the dice. The Lakers want to bring back Showtime, and their clearest path to doing that is allowing Ball to get on-the-job training. I think the two produce similar per-minute value, but I'll say Ball holds the edge in both minutes per game and games played this season.
Doug Kezirian: I lean towards Simmons. He will fill up the stat sheet easily, despite poor shooting percentages. I worry that Embiid's minutes restrictions and Markelle Fultz's adjustment phase will inhibit Simmons.
Then again, the Lakers also have plenty of question marks. Ball already has NBA speed, and that should lead to steals and assists. However, the Lakers are still trying to find a way. Plus, like it or not, LaVar Ball is a net negative and that will surface at some point.
