Dominant dunks and dazzling dimes are circulating on social media with unmatched virality each night -- a sure sign the NBA is back in full swing.
If it took seven weeks for Carson Wentz to command the MVP chorus in the NFL, it's taken only four games for the gifted Giannis Antetokounmpo to earn the odds-on favorite treatment in the NBA. Many storylines during this embryonic phase of what is a long NBA campaign won't prove enduring, as it's during these early weeks fantasy basketball managers are tasked with discerning which hot starts and underwhelming usage scenarios merit the most attention.
Among the rising tier of talents, is the Orlando Magic's Aaron Gordon really making the leap from being flawed yet promising to prolifically productive? Is Blake Griffin back to his uber-athletic best? Forgive my Philadelphia bias, but is Ben Simmons the clear-cut top fantasy rookie? Is Andre Drummond becoming Mark Price -- or Steve Nash, if that reference is too old school -- from the free throw line? On the inverse side of the value spectrum, is it time to panic about Paul George's smaller offensive share in Oklahoma City? Is Jusuf Nurkic regressing from last season's stellar stretch with the Blazers?
There aren't definitive answers for such queries, but I think it's never too early to begin reconsidering expected values for teams and players around the league. I spent the offseason speculating and projecting production, which naturally developed narratives and biases I work on fighting as the actual data of the season unfolds.
I really liked Julius Randle's potential to shine as a double-double machine for a young and fast-paced Lakers team, but he's currently 142nd in fantasy points per game with limited minutes off the bench. It's only three games and 3.6 percent of the way into the Lakers' season, so the sample is small, but the results remain troubling to date.
My task each week is to react to the growing sample of production and adjust these rest-of-season rankings in ESPN points leagues. Think of it as if you were drafting this week. This is a relative agenda, mind you, as we always should be wary of rash reaction to small samples, but at the same time, we shouldn't entirely ignore what is happening on the actual hardwood. Which is to say, we should be open-minded as fantasy basketball investors to what is a new and evolving market for value.
Delving into the actual shifts in the rankings, Randle has to take a sizable hit, given so much of his value was tied to expected opportunity rates. We entered the season with the Lakers' forward ranked 38th overall (remember, the ESPN scoring key for points leagues prominently rewards scoring and rebounding volume), but plunges to 70th overall in this first adjustment of the regular season. It's likely I was too high on Randle in September, just as it's possible he'll eventually rise into the top 50 again in the coming months.
Such is the case with these early valuations for young NBA talents. Orlando's Gordon is on the ascent -- rising from 60th in the preseason ranks to a perch in the top 40 overall. Gordon is finally stretching the floor and could viably return top-30 value with such awesome opportunity rates (35.5 minutes and 15.5 shots per game).
Among the early-round players on the rise, Antetokounmpo is the top player in points formats going forward, while the Knicks' Kristaps Porzingis is pushing his way into the elite tier now that he's ninth in the league in usage rate and could be a steady statistical force on a depleted New York roster.
Since the fantasy gods demand some semblance of balance, the Knicks' Willy Hernangomez makes Randle's situation appear enviable, as he's already earned a dreaded DNP-CD this season. Our friend Willy falls to the back-end of the 150 and is honestly fine to drop if you can replace him with shares of rising players in a neighboring borough, as Brooklyn's DeMarre Carroll and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are both in the top 40 in fantasy points per game through the first week, vaulting them into the top 100 in these updated rankings.
Speaking of Brooklyn, D'Angelo Russell is 42nd in fantasy points per game and now merits a top-50 consideration with no real competition for touches on what will be one of the fastest offenses in the league.
In South Philly, fears over Markelle Fultz's mysterious missing shot at least have some positive counterbalance with Simmons shining -- he's 19th in fantasy points per game so far -- and with Joel Embiid already playing well past any predicted minutes restrictions.
I could keep going in canvassing the countless contextual shifts and surges in value around the fantasy landscape, but I think the best strategic approach is to be fairly liberal in buying into young players -- especially those serving new roles and enjoying increased usage. For instance, Boston's young tandem of wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown surge well into the top 100, thanks to the usage they'll consume in the wake of Gordon Hayward's season-ending injury.
In regards to some buy-low candidates, I'd engage the manager who has Kawhi Leonard in your league(s) to see if there is already a notable discount in place. The same even goes for Eric Bledsoe as he's on the shelf, since these windows can close quickly once elite box scores resurface.
