The Minnesota Timberwolves are a very interesting team this season, and one that sometimes confounds expectations. They feature two No. 1-overall draft picks, both of whom went on to win the Rookie of the Year award, as foundational pieces. To that core, they added fringe MVP candidate Jimmy Butler and solid veterans Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, with intriguing players like Jamal Crawford coming off the bench. They are coached by Tom Thibodeau, one of the great defensive minds in the NBA, and many feel that this is the season that the Timberwolves not only get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2004, but that they will make some noise when they get there.
However, many have also expressed the sentiment that, while the Timberwolves are good this year, it seems like they should be even better. I've heard some say that the problem is that the bench still isn't strong enough. I'm not sure I buy that, though, as Crawford is still a professional scorer and guys like Nemanja Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng and Tyus Jones all have the ability to play useful roles. Thibodeau has a tendency to not play his bench very much, but that's not the same thing as not having anything there.
Another criticism that I hear is that Karl-Anthony Towns shoots too many 3-pointers, and it's weakening his offense. This is something I often hear from former NBA players, but I buy this even less than the bench argument. I think we have enough evidence to strongly support that a big man who shoots the 3-pointer can have a major positive affect on most offenses because it creates major space for the rest of the offense to work.
When the big man in question is a heavy-volume scorer like Towns -- who shoots the trey at an over-40 percent clip -- it also creates a nice gravitational effect on defenses that further makes life easier on his teammates. Towns is currently sporting an offensive Real Plus Minus (ORPM) score of +3.23, the best mark in the NBA among centers, so I'd say his style of play is indeed a huge help to the Timberwolves offense as a whole.
All that said, there's a third criticism that I hear levied against the team that may be worth considering. Do the Timberwolves play at too slow a pace? While it is vital to have a strong half-court offense, especially for use in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and fast break attempts are harder to come by, are the Timberwolves making things too hard on themselves by playing too much half-court?
Currently the Timberwolves score 10.1 fast-break points per game, 19th in the NBA and less than half of what the Golden State Warriors routinely produce. Yet Minnesota has all of the pieces in place to be able to do a lot more running. Teague is fast enough to lead the break, and both Butler and Andrew Wiggins are very athletic -- more than capable of filling the lanes on the wings to devastating effect. Plus, Towns is one of the fastest young centers in the NBA, and would make an excellent trailer who could give opposing centers fits.
The fast break would lead to more easy shots for the team in general, a quicker pace that would lead to more possessions and opportunities to produce,, higher field-goal percentages and more free throw attempts. These would all be positives for fantasy production, as well as for the team itself. The player that it would likely help the most is Wiggins, who has neither the ball-handling ability nor the jump shot to consistently be an elite scoring option in the half-court. However, his athleticism is off the charts, so he could be incredibly effective as a finisher on the break.
While it's an interesting thought experiment, it's unlikely that you'll see the Wolves running more anytime soon. It isn't Coach Thibbs' way, as he is much more comfortable with a defensive-focused, grind-it-out philosophy. Plus, you have to be a great rebounding team to start the fast break and the Timberwolves currently rank 28th in the NBA with only 31.1 defensive rebounds per game. Sadly, by taking a roster that could be a sports car and turning it into a minivan, Thibodeau is limiting what could otherwise be a much better source of fantasy output.
Thursday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 points (19-29 FG, 7-10 FT), 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 1 3-pointer, 6 TO
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards: 41 points (15-26 FG, 5-7 FT), 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 6 3-pointers, 2 steals, 5 TO
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves: 31 points (13-24 FG, 4-6 FT), 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 3-pointer, 2 TO
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors: 28 points (10-19 FG, 2-2 FT), 11 assists, 10 rebounds, 6 3-pointers, 3 blocks, 2 steals, 4 TO
Lowlights:
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves: 10 points (4-18 FG, 2-2 FT), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 2 TO
Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings: 9 points (3-8 FG, 3-7 FT), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 1 TO
Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards: 4 points (2-3 FG), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 3 TO
Thursday takeaways
Westbrook's stat line was eye popping, as usual, but he was also part of two of the funnier stories of the night. First, there was the outfit that he wore to the game (see below). Second, the motivation behind his huge game on Thursday is hilarious:
Russell Westbrook was shown the teams LeBron & Steph drafted for the All-Star game & didn't realize names were listed alphabetically. He just thought he was picked last. Went out & dropped 46 on John Wall and the Wizards. https://t.co/oURMDiy0NK
- Rachel Nichols (@Rachel__Nichols) January 26, 2018
- The Wizards probably wish that someone would have explained the alphabetical thing to Westbrook before the game.
Towns had it working on Thursday, while Wiggins didn't. Everyone else played essentially to their averages, but Jamal Crawford (95.7 percent availabilty) was strong off the bench with 21 points (9-16 FG, 2-2 FT), 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 3-pointer and 1 TO in 26 minutes.
Beal ended up on my team in ESPN Fantasy's All-Star Game draft. (Vote who did the better job here.) He then went out and represented my squad correctly with his huge night. Gortat, meanwhile, was invisible yet again on Thursday in what has become a very disappointing season for the giant center. Markieff Morris (74.8 percent availability) was particularly strong, scoring 20 points with 9 rebounds, 2 3-pointers, 2 steals and 1 block.
Cauley-Stein made me look good on Thursday, as he was my "fade" pick in yesterday's Building Blocks article. Although he was coming off a great game, he was also facing the Heat -- and they've been dominant defensively against centers. Cauley-Stein's line was just another example of said dominance.
Injuries of note
Jimmy Butler reportedly tested out his knee in pre-game warmups, but still wasn't quite ready and ended up missing his fourth straight game. His return date is still unknown, but it sounds like he's close. Consider him to be day-to-day. Nemanja Bjelica (98.2 percent availability) continued to start for Bulter on Thursday, scoring 11 points with 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 3-pointers and 2 steals in 37 minutes of action.
Tim Hardaway Jr. sat on Thursday night, resting for the first half of a back-to-back. Presumably, he will be available to play on Friday.
Analytics advantage for Friday
The Atlanta Hawks allow the fifth-highest field-goal percentage on 2-point shots (52.7 FG%), give up the fourth-most offensive rebounds (10.6) and see the fourth-most of their own shots blocked (5.3) per game. They have a weak interior defense. They aren't strong on the glass. This is a team full of non-shooters, which encourages drives that lead directly to all those swats. All of this plays into why they are so friendly to opposition centers, allowing the most fantasy points to the position. On Friday, they face Dwight Howard, who once played for Atlanta, in a matchup that should work very strongly to his advantage.
Top players to watch tonight
Call me crazy, but I have this hunch that the Cavaliers are about to turn it around. They've bottomed out over the last few weeks, playing awful basketball with hideous body language and very little effort. Players are getting thrown under the bus, there are "secret" team meetings, and leaked news about trade demands. It just feels like things have reached their limit. Cleveland isn't this bad and, in fact, they have all the pieces to get a lot better in a hurry. It says here that better starts tonight. I'll be watching LeBron James, Kevin Love and Isaiah Thomas to see what they do against the Pacers.
The Rockets are at the Pelicans on Friday, which just feels like a track meet where a lot of points are going to get put on the board. James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis and/or Chris Paul could all do something ridiculous. Don't miss it.
