There were 12 games on Wednesday, with the vast majority of the 24 teams playing their last game before the All-Star break. The week-long break is badly needed by many NBA teams, four months into a long season.
Many teams will use this time to get healthy, to get rested, and to get up to speed after big events like trades or injuries disrupted the apple cart. This affects not only the production of teams going into the break, but also the expected values of players coming out of the break. Here are just a few such story lines to pay attention to:
Joel Embiid sat out Wednesday with a mildly sprained ankle. He went through pregame warmups before it was decided that he would sit. Embiid is a player who should always err on the side of caution, and the impending week-long break was enough to get him to sit. Barring injury over the break, he should be back and starting afterwards.
The same is true of LaMarcus Aldridge, who sat out the past few games prior to the break with "knee soreness". The team has already announced that Aldridge shouldn't miss any time after the break, so it sounds like the rest is expected to do him well.
Cory Joseph (97.9 percent available) had a big game on Wednesday with 15 points (5-12 FG, 4-7 FT), 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 1 3-pointer and 2 TO in 36 minutes, starting in place of Darren Collison (knee). Collison was slated to miss 2-3 weeks as of 10 days ago, and he now has eight days until the Pacers' next game, so Joseph's time as a spot starter is coming to an end.
Mario Hezonja (77.2 percent available) is in a similar situation, scoring 21 points (10-20 FG) with 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 1 3-pointer in 35 minutes on Wednesday as he continues to start for Aaron Gordon (hip). However, Gordon was initially listed as questionable for the most recent games and could be recovered (or at least close) by the time the break ends. Nikola Vucevic (hand) is also expected to return on Feb. 22, immediately after the break, and could also eat further into Hezonja's opportunities moving forward.
D'Angelo Russell came off the bench again on Wednesday but scored 18 points (7-14 FG, 4-4 FT) with 9 assists and 3 rebounds in 29 minutes of action. He has averaged 29 minutes per game during his past three games, and could potentially return to the starting lineup after the break.
Lonzo Ball (knee) is expected to return to action on February 23 against the Dallas Mavericks, after the break. This means that Thursday's game could be Isaiah Thomas' last chance to shine before the Lakers' starting point guard returns.
Kris Dunn returned from a weeks-long absence (concussion) on Wednesday. He started but played only 20 minutes while scoring 8 points (3-9 FG, 2-2 FT) with 3 assists, 3 rebounds and 1 steal. The break should give him the chance to return at closer to full speed next week.
Wednesday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans: 42 points (15-18 FG, 10-11 FT), 15 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 3-pointers, 2 blocks, 1 TO
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors: 50 points (17-27 FG, 10-10 FT), 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 6 3-pointers, 2 blocks, 4 TO
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: 44 points (14-25 FG, 12-12 FT), 8 assists, 4 3-pointers, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 4 TO
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers: 18 points (8-15 FG, 2-5 FT), 12 rebounds, 10 assists, 4 steals, 4 TO
Elfrid Payton, Phoenix Suns: 13 points (5-11 FG, 2-2 FT), 12 assists, 11 rebounds, 1 3-pointer, 1 steal, 1 block, 5 TO
DeAndre Jordan, LA Clippers: 30 points (11-14 FG, 8-9 FT), 13 rebounds, 4 steals, 3 assists, 2 TO
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards: 36 points (14-22 FG, 4-4 FT), 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 3-pointers, 3 steals, 2 blocks, 3 TO
Tim Hardaway Jr., New York Knicks: 37 points (14-24 FG, 3-3 FT), 5 rebounds, 6 3-pointers, 2 steals, 1 assist, 3 TO
Kyrie Irving, Boston Celtics: 33 points (11-21 FG, 6-6 FT), 8 assists, 5 3-pointers, 1 steal, 1 rebounds, 4 TO
Lowlights:
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors: 7 points (3-11 FG, 1-1 FT), 8 assists, 2 rebounds, 0 TO
TJ Warren, Phoenix Suns: 5 points (2-7 FG, 1-2 FT), 1 rebound, 5 PF
Jonathon Simmons, Orlando Magic: 5 points (2-5 FG, 1-1 FT), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 5 TO
Josh Richardson, Miami Heat: 6 points (2-5 FG), 2 3-pointers, 2 assists, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 TO, 5 PF
Wednesday takeaways
A low-key story with big fantasy ramifications happened on Wednesday night. Devin Booker returned from his hip injury with a strong game of 28 points (8-20 FG, 6-9 FT), 5 rebounds, 6 3-pointers and 3 assists. However, the question was whether he would return as the starting point guard or the starting shooting guard. He returned as the shooting guard, with Payton holding onto the starting point guard role and turning in a triple-double against a strong Utah Jazz defense. Josh Jackson returned to the bench but still had an impact game with 22 points (10-15 FG, 0-1 FT), 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 3-pointers, 1 steal and 2 TO in 36 minutes off the bench.
The Clippers put together an extremely balanced attack around Jordan, who showed on Wednesday that the best way to break the hack-a-Jordan strategy is to make free throws (he finished 8-of-9 from the line). On Wednesday, the Clippers had eight players score at least nine points, seven in double-figures, and four with at least 19 -- with Danilo Gallinari (20 points, 9 rebounds, 2 3-pointers, 1 assist) and Tobias Harris (21 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 3-pointers, 1 steal) joining Jordan with at least 20 points.
Irving scoring more than 30 points has not proved to be a good thing for the Celtics, as it often means that he is trying to carry the team in a losing effort. The Celtics have lost eight of their past 10 games in which Irving has scored at least 30 points, including six losses in a row.
The Detroit Pistons broke their three-game losing streak with a balanced, team effort on Wednesday. They had seven players score in double-digits, led by Ish Smith (22 points, 8-13 FG, 6-7 FT, 9 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 TO). All five starters scored at least 13 points. Blake Griffin flirted with a triple-double with 13 points, 12 rebounds, 9 assists, 4 3-pointers, 1 block but 6 TO.
Rajon Rondo and Isaiah Thomas were both ejected in the first quarter on Wednesday after drawing a pair of double-technicals. To my eyes, Rondo seemed to be the instigator of the entire incident, repeatedly elbowing Thomas in the face in different situations, then, after Thomas protested, both were issued double-techs. Personally, I think it s likely that the NBA rescinds at least one, if not both of Thomas' technicals. On the fantasy front, it leaves him fresh for Thursday's pre-break finale against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Injuries of note
De'Aaron Fox took a hard fall late in the fourth quarter of Wednesday's game, landing on his head and requiring stitches above his right eye and chin. It is unclear if he will enter the concussion protocol or not, so the All-Star break may be at an opportune time for him to minimize his absence.
Analytics advantage for Thursday
There are just two games tonight, as we wrap things up before the break: DEN-MIL and LAL-MIN
The Denver Nuggets (109.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, 22nd) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (110.9, 26th) are among the worst defenses in the league, and the Los Angeles Lakers play at the fastest pace in the NBA at 100.6 possessions per game.
The Milwaukee Bucks are average on defense (108.7, 16th) and also play a slow pace (95.4 possessions per game, 25th).
Thus, by defensive measures and pace, the expectation is that the Lakers at Timberwolves game is the one most likely to put the most points on the scoreboard and thus give the most fantasy opportunities.
Top players to watch tonight
Thomas was my player to watch yesterday, believing he might put up a big number in what seemed sure to be a big scoring game against the Pelicans. He was ejected in that game, but all of the same logic suggests that he should have a big game on Thursday, in what is possibly the last game for Thomas to fully shine before Ball returns. Plus it's a game that should put a lot of points on the board and against a poor defensive team in the Timberwolves.
