I noted a bit of blowback surrounding my inclusion of Giannis Antetokounmpo in last week's All-Disappointment Team. Fantasyland is obviously very protective of its Greek Freak.
Sixth overall on the Player Rater. The owner of 15.69 Player Rater points. A top-five spot in ESPN's rest-of-season rankings.
How could Antetokounmpo be considered a fantasy disappointment? Because he is a player with a 1.9 ADP who is giving No. 6 production.
A shortfall of four slots in the first round is impactful. It is disappointing. If you invest a second-overall pick in a player, you expect at least 18-19 Player Rater points in return. We're talking about a 17 percent shortfall. That's significant, especially for a high draft pick.
Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo is obliterating all of his career highs. He's averaging 27.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. And lest you think the Greek Freak is just a volume maven, his advanced metrics -- 60.2 true shooting percentage, 29.9 usage rate, and 28.50 PER -- are all elite.
So ... what gives with the shortfall? Where is the ding in Antetokounmpo's numerical portfolio? What's keeping him from fulfilling his top-two ADP?
Becoming a top-three player requires a special brand of statistical domination. A player might be able to crack 18-19 Player Rater points with one mediocre-to-bad category. LeBron is a substandard free throw shooter (73.8 FT% on 6.0 attempts per game). James Harden hits a boatload of 3s but pays a small price in his field goal percentage (44.9 FG% on 20.6 attempts).
Antetokounmpo is a little better than LeBron in free throws, but he's still hovering near replacement-level value for that category. And then volume of attempts becomes a factor. When you're averaging a gaudy 9.0 free throw attempts per game, hitting only 75.5 percent of them is going to hurt.
But the real culprit here is Antetokounmpo's 3-point production.
Antetokounmpo has yet to refine his particular brand of the deep ball. Right now, that brand is terrifying to behold. After bursting out of the gate with an acceptable 34.7 3FG% as a rookie, Antetokounmpo regressed, averaging 15.9 3FG%, 25.7 3FG%, 27.2 3FG%, and his current 28.9 3FG%.
Invariably, when looking for the moment when a young player is ready to fulfill his full potential, I look to 3-point production. Volume usually arrives a little before efficiency, especially for top players such as LeBron and Antetokounmpo. Big expectations beget volume.
But if you're wondering why a young star is failing to scale the heights of the Player Rater, look at his 3s.
This used to go only for non-post players. But in today's NBA, even 7-footers are being asked to stretch the floor. Think of all of the elite bigs who have become 3-point threats: Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, DeMarcus Cousins, Nikola Jokic and more.
Remember that blocks tend to regress over the course of an NBA player's career.
So, when it comes to big-man 3-point production, everything is relative. Even a subtle boost is impactful. Davis is already a top-three player. But as he continues to camp out, and he gets closer to 1.0 3PG, you'll see Davis become a yearly threat to become No. 1 overall.
This is Year 5 for Antetokounmpo. A player with Antetokounmpo's devastating gifts should have begun to iron out his outside shot. But because the Greek Freak is such a devastating finisher, it's masked his inability to shoot.
91 percent of his 2-point attempts this season have come from less than three feet, per Basketball Reference. He's making 76 percent of those. Smooth sailing so far ... but things start to get dicey at about 3.1 feet.
He's shooting 35.8 percent from 3-10 feet. 34.2 percent from 10-16 feet. 35.7 percent from 17 feet to the 3-point line. Even averaging 27.5 points per tilt, no non-All-World shot-blocker is going to crack top-2 production shooting at those rates.
Sometimes, the boost in production doesn't come in percentage. Sometimes a young player with an already acceptable 3-point percentage begins to shift the weight of his field goal attempts to 3-pointers.
Take the case of Damian Lillard.
He's learned to surrender deep 2-point attempts in favor of more penetration (drawing more fouls) and more 3-pointers. He's posting fewer overall attempts (19.1 per game versus 19.8 in 2016-17), but he's averaging a career high 8.2 3-point attempts per game.
Couple the boost in efficiency from the field with a drool-producing 91.8 free throw percentage (across a solid 6.7 free throw attempts per game) and you'll see why Lillard has made his push into Fantasyland's top 10. You're seeing what amounts to his fantasy peak.
Another player whose 3-point shift is powering peak production: DeMar DeRozan. For all of his previous point-packed seasons, DeRozan couldn't crack the Player Rater's top 30.
In 2016-17, DeRozan posted a gonzo 27.3 points per outing, backed up by 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals. His percentages (46.7 FG%, 82.9 FT%) were solid. But DeRozan still clocked in at only 37th on the Player Rater. Again, the culprit was 3-point production.
This season, DeRozan is averaging a career high 3.5 3-point attempts per game. His percentage is a pedestrian 32.1, but it's high enough to push his 3s per game to 1.1.
DeRozan's shot attempts (18.0 per game) are down. His scoring is comparatively way down (23.8 points per game). But DeRozan's 3-point boost has lifted him into the top-30 on the Player Rater.
Thanks to the deep ball, DeRozan's overall portfolio may contain less flash, but it suddenly possesses more substance.
For your perusal, here are the players with at least 100 3-point attempts that have made the biggest improvements in their 3-point percentage.
