On Wednesday, the Toronto Raptors blew out the Boston Celtics 96-78 to all but guarantee themselves the top seed in the Eastern Conference going into the playoffs. However, it's been an interesting ride for the Raptors down the stretch as they've played both the Celtics and the third-seed Cleveland Cavaliers twice each in their last seven games and only managed to win this most recent game.
While one shouldn't make huge generalizations about a team based on a four game sample, I think this stretch illustrates exactly what advantage the Raptors have over the Celtics and Cavs in the regular season: their bench. The Raptors' bench has been instrumental in helping them play near an optimal level over the course of a long regular season, but it also diminished the fantasy production of their main players this season and could be a resource that is not as valuable in the postseason as it has been to date. Let's take a look at the last couple of games as an example.
On Wednesday, both the Raptors and the Celtics were on the second half of a back-to-back set. The Raptors had lost a six-point decision to the Cavaliers on Tuesday, while the Celtics had come up short against the Milwaukee Bucks. However, the top players on the Celtics on Tuesday had each played heavy minutes with Al Horford, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum all averaging 35 minutes. They had to go that hard because injuries have plagued the Celtics all season, and on Tuesday they were missing all three of their top point guards in addition to the season-long absence of Gordon Hayward. To be competitive, they had to really ride Horford, Brown and Tatum.
The Raptors, on the other hand, were able to go relatively light on their starters on Tuesday. Two of their starting five played 22 minutes or less, and their main three of DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka averaged just over 30 minutes with both Ibaka and Lowry coming in at 29 minutes. This was because their bench played heavy minutes and contributed strongly on Tuesday, the way that they have all season, with five players off the bench scoring between seven and 10 points to keep them in the game.
Fast-forward to Wednesday, and even though the Celtics got Terry Rozier (ankle) back in their lineup, their entire starting five still looked visibly sluggish all game long. Brown managed only 9 points (4-9 FG, 0-1 FT), 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 3-pointer and 2 TO. Tatum went for 8 points (4-10 FG), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 2 TO. Rozier wasn't himself, scoring only 2 points on 1-9 FG with 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 2 TO. Al Horford paced the starters with 16 points, but shot only 5-13 from the field and managed only four rebounds and zero assists. In short, the entire Celtics' starting lineup looked and played like they were exhausted on Wednesday. Marcus Morris (21 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 3-pointer, 5 TO) and Greg Monroe (17 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TO) tried to pick up the slack off the bench, but there just wasn't enough there for the Celtics.
Meanwhile, the Raptors starters didn't play all that great on Wednesday either, but they were clearly the fresher of the two units. DeMar DeRozan managed 16 points (6-17 FG, 1-1 FT), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 3-pointers, 1 steal and 1 block. Kyle Lowry went for 13 points (5-11 FG, 1-2 FT), 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 3-pointers, 1 steal, 1 block and 3 TO. Serge Ibaka scored 15 points (7-13 FG) with 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 1 3-pointer and 1 TO. And while the Celtics had two big scorers off their bench, they only got a combined for 43 points from the unit as a whole. The Raptors' bench on Thursday featured Fred VanVleet with 15 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds and 3 3-pointers and Delon Wright with 8 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks, and their entire bench unit scored 44 points.
Thus, the Raptors' bench kept them in the game against the Cavaliers on Tuesday even when their starters were overmatched, and kept said starters fresh enough to outplay the exhausted Celtics starters on Wednesday. The bench can be extremely important in the regular season, where back-to-backs exist and teams can get run down. The downside, from a fantasy perspective, is that because the Raptors bench contributed so much, their main guys like Lowry and DeRozan had relatively down fantasy seasons from what they could have been. And in the playoffs, where there are no more back-to-backs and teams get plenty of rest to keep the starters fresher, it is worth wondering whether that Raptors bench will be quite as valuable in helping them separate from the competition.
Wednesday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers: 30 points (11-23 FG, 3-4 FT), 5 3-pointers, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 3 TO
Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs: 23 points (7-12 FG, 9-13 FT), 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 4 TO
E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans Pelicans: 30 points (11-16 FG, 1-1 FT), 7 3-pointers, 4 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 rebound, 1 TO
Lowlights:
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies: 0 points (0-3 FG), 3 assists, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 3 TO
Tyler Johnson, Miami Heat: 6 points (3-10 FG), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, 2 TO
Isaiah Taylor, Atlanta Hawks: 2 points (1-8 FG), 3 assists, 1 rebound
Wednesday takeaways
The Philadelphia 76ers stayed white-hot, winning their 12th straight game with a seven-point win on the road over the Detroit Pistons. The 76ers were led in the scoring column by J.J. Redick, who went for 25 points (10-13 FG), 6 assists, 5 3-pointers, 2 rebounds and 1 steal. They were led on the glass by double-digit efforts from both Ersan Ilyasova and Amir Johnson, but as always with Joel Embiid (face) and Dario Saric (hip) out, it was Ben Simmons who anchored the team with a strong all-around effort of 16 points (7-10 FG, 2-4 FT), 7 assists, 6 rebounds, 1 steal and 2 TO.
The loss by the Pistons on Wednesday officially eliminated them from playoff contention. They've really been out of the race for weeks now, but with it official it is possible that players like Andre Drummond, who played through illness on Wednesday, could start to see more time off.
Injuries of note
Goran Dragic (ankle), Dwyane Wade (wrist) and James Johnson (ankle) all sat out Wednesday's game against the lowly Atlanta Hawks. The Heat still won in a blowout, and it's clear that they are resting their players with minor injuries in advantageous situations like this one to try to get them fresh for the playoffs. Consider all three questionable to play on Friday against the New York Knicks.
Dirk Nowitzki missed Wednesday's game with a left ankle impingement, and he will not join the team on their upcoming two-game road trip. Nowitzki is a super OG veteran on a lottery team, so there's no real point in him suiting up again this season unless he's fully healthy. Meanwhile, teammate J.J. Barea aggravated an oblique injury and had to leave the game after only 10 minutes on Wednesday night. He is officially done for the season.
Analytics advantage for Thursday
Five of the six games on Thursday feature matchups with both teams in the playoff hunt. However, the Golden State Warriors are locked in at the two slot out West, the Portland Trail Blazers are pretty much locked in at three and Damian Lillard (ankle) may not play, and the Houston Rockets are locked in at the top spot and are coming off of a "just-to-prove-we-still-could" blowout of the Washington Wizards in their last game.
Thus, the games with the most fantasy interest for me on Thursday are the Wizards at the Cleveland Cavaliers, the LA Clippers at the Utah Jazz, and the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Denver Nuggets. And the last one projects to be the biggest fantasy feast of offense, as both the Nuggets and the Timberwolves rank in the top-10 in the league in team offensive rating (Nuggets 112.5 points/100 possessions, 6th; Timberwolves 113.4 points/100 possessions, 4th) and in the bottom-10 in team defensive rating (Nuggets 111.2 points allowed/100 possessions, 26th; Timberwolves 111.5 points allowed/100 possessions, 28th).
Top players to watch tonight
The matchup of the night is clearly Karl-Anthony Towns against Nikola Jokic in Denver, as both are dominant offensive centers with questionable defense that are trying to carry their teams to the playoffs.
