Luka Doncic and Danilo Gallinari dueled with 32 points apiece in an exciting matchup of top European talents on Thursday, but it was Derrick Jones Jr. of Miami who stole the slate by providing profitable fantasy production.
The cool kids call him "Airplane Mode" for his prolific aerial skills above the rim, while Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is starting to call Jones' name off the bench with more frequency. The bouncy combo forward hadn't been a steady part of the Miami rotation for much of the season, but injuries and losses have mounted to the point of Jones getting extended exposure the past two weeks, typified by last night's season-high 15 points to go with eight rebounds and four combined steals and blocks.
During his past six appearances, Jones has averaged 10.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 1.5 BPG in 25.3 MPG. Those are undeniably roster-worthy numbers, particularly in the defensive department, where Miami needs his length and athleticism to guard rangy power forwards.
When a player emerges from the shadows off the bench in the NBA, it's tough for fantasy managers to decipher how to trust in this production as either a blip or trend. There is indeed an opportunity cost to cutting a player from your roster and adding an unknown upstart like Jones. I look for statistical scarcity as one of the early differentiation elements when making such decisions. For instance, Jones is producing a unique blend of steals and blocks the past few weeks, which signals he can provide statistics than many of his peers in fantasy free agency simply cannot.
Available in more than 99 percent of ESPN leagues, maybe you can treat acquiring Jones as a 10-day contract of sorts to see if this new role and production pattern is indeed enduring.
With an eye on meaningful fantasy performances and relevant statistical trends, let's delve into the night that was in the NBA.
Thursday recap
Highlights
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 32 points (10-20 FG), 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, 4 TO
Danilo Gallinari, LA Clippers: 32 points (11-16 FG), 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 3 TO
James Harden, Houston Rockets: 35 points (7-23 FG), 6 rebounds, 12 assists, 2 steals, 3 TO
Lowlights
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LA Clippers: 4 points (2-4 FG), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 1 TO
Rodney McGruder, Miami Heat: 5 points (1-5 FG), 1 rebound
Wesley Matthews, Dallas Mavericks: 6 points (2-7 FG), 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 TO
Thursday takeaways
Doncic set a career scoring high in the loss to the Clippers, adding in four steals to make for a stellar statistical showing. This marked his second 30-point game this season, becoming the first rookie this campaign with multiple 30-point efforts. It's been said, but it remains amazing to consider what Doncic's game will look like once he spends a few summers with NBA-grade nutrition and conditioning programs. My second favorite sleeper of Thursday's slate, behind only Airplane Mode, is the Mavericks' J.J. Barea. The diminutive dynamo delivered 19 points and eight assists last night and yet is still found for free in 85 percent of ESPN leagues. Even with Doncic in the fold, the Mavericks will continue to deploy Barea as a steady playmaker.
Gallinari's recent scoring swoon seems to be over, as he's averaged 27.3 PPG with strong peripherals the past three games after having posted 17.6 PPG on modest percentages in the previous eight starts. Prone to enduring some hot and cold stretches, the overall blend of production places "Galli" eighth on the Player Rater among small forward-eligible players, just ahead of Jimmy Butler and just behind Ben Simmons in this regard. Durability will always be a looming concern with Gallinari, but it's safe to say those who invested are netting a strong campaign thus far from the Italian forward.
Harden produced his sixth outing this season with at least 30 points and 10 assists, as he has twice as many such performances as any other player, with John Wall claiming three such lines. With his backcourt partner ailing, which I detail in greater detail below, Harden will somehow prove even busier on offense in the coming weeks. Last night marked the bearded one's 200th game with at least 30 points for the Rockets, as he now trails Hakeem Olajuwon by 27 games in this category.
Miami's Josh Richardson tallied his 12th game this season with at least 20 points in the win over the Rockets. All last season, Richardson had 13 such games. With Goran Dragic out until the All-Star break, Richardson's statistical ascent should continue. Another beneficiary of Dragic's absence could be combo guard Tyler Johnson, who has averaged 17 PPG his past three outings and is still floating in free agency in most ESPN leagues.
Injuries of note
Nikola Mirotic is considered doubtful to play against the Lakers tonight due to an ankle injury. Fellow Pelicans Anthony Davis (illness) and Julius Randle (ankle) are questionable, but signs point to them being active tonight. I discuss Davis meeting with LeBron James in greater detail below, but it's worth noting this is yet another revenge narrative for a former top pick of the Lakers. Earlier this week, D'Angelo Russell was brilliant in downing the Lakers, with Randle undoubtedly motivated to follow in his path. With Mirotic likely out, Randle could feast on opportunities.
Chris Paul suffered a hamstring injury last night in a loss to the Heat. In the tweet below, ESPN's Bobby Marks shared Paul's long history with hamstring ailments and how long they've sidelined him in the past. Given Mike D'Antoni told reporters after the game that "it'll be some time" before Paul gets back, we might want to look to the longer side of the recovery spectrum, based on his history with these injuries, in the five-to-seven game range. In the meantime, Eric Gordon can be expected to earn more minutes and touches, making him a fun target in DFS competition in the games ahead.
Here is a complete list of the Chris Paul hamstring issues that have plagued him since 2009:
* 5/18 (L-2)
* 4/18 (L-1G)
* 3/18 (L-3)
* 12/16 (L-7G)
* 5/15 (L-2G)
* 11/13 (R-1G)
*1/12 (L-5G)
- Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) December 21, 2018
Analytics advantage for Friday
The Milwaukee Bucks (21-9) are off to their best 30-game start since 1990-91. The Boston Celtics have gone 8-2 since starting the season 10-10, tied with the Nuggets for the best record in the NBA over that span.
Tonight's meeting of the Bucks and Celtics is a matchup of strength versus strength. The Bucks lead the league in offensive efficiency while the Celtics rank third in defensive efficiency. Over their past 10 games, however, it's the Celtics who lead the league in offensive efficiency (119.2 points per 100 possessions). Kyrie Irving has led the way during Boston's offensive resurgence. Since November 26th, Irving is averaging 25.3 points on 50.0 percent shooting, including 47.0 percent from 3-point range.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 26.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists this season. To put what Antetokounmpo is doing in perspective, only seven players in NBA history have averaged at least 25 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in a single season (min. 50 games). Giannis is averaging 18.4 PPG in the paint this season, the most by any player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2002-03 (19.6 PPG). Shaq is the only player over the past 20 years to average more paint PPG than Giannis.
The Celtics' tough defense hasn't slowed down Antetokounmpo. Since the start of last season, he's averaging 33.4 PPG against Boston, his second most against any Eastern Conference opponent (36.4 PPG vs. Cavaliers) and the third most of anyone against the Celtics (minimum three games). Only Davis (36.8 PPG) and Devin Booker (33.7 PPG) have averaged more over that span.
Top players to watch tonight
Davis and the Pelicans visit LeBron and the Lakers on Friday at 10:30 ET on ESPN. Davis and James are both averaging 28.0 points this season, tied for third among qualifying players. If Davis eventually lands with the Lakers, L.A. would have two players on its roster who rank in the top three on the all-time PER list. Davis has a player efficiency rating of 27.2 for his career, third-best in NBA history among those to play at least 300 games, trailing only Michael Jordan and LeBron. PER is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity and efficiency.
Davis ranks in the top 10 in points, rebounds and blocks per game, and is just outside the top 10 in steals. He leads the NBA with a player efficiency rating of 29.8 this season. A reason for LeBron's impressive scoring -- he's posting his best scoring clip since 2009-10 -- has been the Lakers' pace. Los Angeles ranks third in pace this season, which is the highest by a LeBron team in his career. As for the Pelicans, they rank fourth in pace this season. This should be a fantasy-friendly showdown at the Staples Center.
