On a recent (and entertaining) All Things Covered podcast, Boston Celtics great Antoine Walker took a little quality time to go in on James Harden.
"I'm not a James Harden guy," Walker said. "I don't think you can win with his style. I would not leverage my future for James Harden."
Harden responded. It got salty. The whole thing just felt unfortunate.
While discussing this back-and-forth recently, I was reciting Walker's NBA resume to a young person. NBA champion (and had a big impact in that Finals). Three-time All-Star. A 20-PPG player. A big that hit 3s. Averaged 5-plus assists.
Walker posted a multidimensional four-year peak stat line that pointed towards the NBA of today. Walker was a true fantasy basketball pioneer.
And secretly... the most toxic fantasy basketball player of his time.
Walker's ahead-of-its-time volume-riffic production made him a highly prized fantasy player. But Walker walked a fine line between "really good shooter" and "someone who really likes to shoot."
Walker had one above-average shot: his 3-point stroke. In 2000-01 (his best year), Walker shot 36.7% from deep. (The NBA 3PT% that season: 35.4%). Walker averaged 2.7 3s, 23.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, and 2.3 STL+BLK. Walker was a volumetric behemoth.
But when you looked under the hood, what you found was high Usage, and highly mediocre efficiency. His 2000-01 Usage Rate: 27.8%. PER: 17.1. TS%: 49.0%. 3.7 turnovers per game (7th in turnovers overall, which is very hard for a power forward to do).
In my early fantasy writing, Walker personified everything I wanted to avoid. His sky-high numbers were clearly inflated by high usage and conscience-free shot selection. (And keep in mind I'm talking about his best season.) Walker ladled on the counting stats but poured Liquid Drano into your percentages when you weren't looking.
Back then in fantasy, it was very hard to win with Antoine Walker.
Walker was the fantasy embodiment of a "Poison Pill "player. The guy you traded to a competitor when you wanted to secretly screw their team up.
Talking about all this led me to reflect, who are today's Poison Pills?
In honor of the just-played All-Star Game? I was able to put together a starting five.
PG: De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
If you're looking for a lot of help at point guard? Fox is probably one of your top trade targets. On the surface, Fox can cure a lot of fantasy ills.
By all appearances, Fox is posting a career fantasy campaign: 23.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 1.8 3PG, 1.7 STL+BLK. But that counting goodness is spackling over a 55.1 TS%, 46.6 FG%, 67.2 FT%, and 3.3 TPG.
If you're playing in a points league? You're very happy you're rostering Fox. In our points system, Fox is a top-30 player. But on our Player Rater (which leans Roto) Fox is only 54th.
Back in 2000-01, all fantasy basketball was roto-based. Walker would fare better in today's points-based leagues. But efficiency still matters, regardless of system. And if I were in a roto-based league, looking to deal a poison pill to corrode a competitor's percentages? Fox would be an ideal player to place on the trading block.
SG: Victor Oladipo, Houston Rockets
Oladipo's been hurt a good part of the season. The time on the shelf has minimized the fact that Oladipo's downward shift in efficiency post-injury may be a permanent condition. To the point where of all the players on this list, Oladipo may be the closest current NBA equivalent to Walker's peak secret toxicity.
This isn't a knock on Oladipo's basketball IQ. I'm not saying he shares Walker's tendency toward unconscious shot selection. It's just unfortunate when a very good player struggles to regain his full complement of skills after a catastrophic injury.
2017-18 Oladipo was an efficiency success story. After resting too comfortably on volume early in his career, Oladipo had successfully refined his game to the point where his TS% jumped all the way to 57.7%.
Right now? Oladipo's TS% is at 50.1%. His FG% is all the way down to 39.9%.
Oladipo just threw down his best box score of the year: 33 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 3s, 2 steals, 2 blocks. But just on 9-of-25 shooting. It's doubtful he'll play back-to-backs this season. But coming off a game like that? Oladipo's at peak Poison Pill capacity.
SF: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
It's possible Tatum is just having a down shooting year. Not that you're probably noticing. But Tatum's career-best 24.9 PPG is being fueled by a career high 30.5 USG% and 20.6 FGA. Which is masking Tatum's career-low 43.7 FG% and 54.7 TS%.
Again, this could just be a down year for a still-very-young rising star. But my worry longterm: is Tatum another Pascal Siakam? Is a player that suffers in efficiency when his usage increases? It's too early in Tatum's career to call this year's shooting dip a career-defining trend. But it will be something to monitor as Tatum continues to increase his usage and shot volume.
PF: Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings
Bagley is getting some extra attention for two reasons: he's being floated in trade talks, and his play has improved. He's not just getting extra volume to boost his trade value. He's making real jumps in efficiency.
And yes, Bagley's rise in minutes and touches is also due to Tyrese Haliburton spending time on the shelf. But it seems like the more Bagley gets the ball, the better he shoots. Despite shooting an anemic 50.1% for the season, Bagley's shot 55.2% over the past month. His PPG has jumped from 14.1 to 17.7.
Other than his recent spike in scoring, Bagley still isn't adding anything in the way of plus-counting stats. He is really starting to show signs of fantasy life, but he'll need to start adding defensive stats to make the jump to the next fantasy level.
C: Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
Will the shift to center stick? And will playing as an undersized five boost Siakam's flagging efficiency? Right now, the shift only seems to have restored Siakam's usage. Which is huge because Siakam needs oversized volume to have a shot at returning manager's high-ADP investment. But there's no evidence that the bump in touches is doing anything for Siakam's shooting percentages.
