As the only Washington Bullets fan I know, I've spent 3/4 of my life pursuing ping-pong balls. It's my lot in life. I'm okay with it.
It's much easier to sell me on a shot at a better tomorrow than an outside shot at a No. 8 seed and getting flattened in the first round. For this DC native, tanking is as much a part of my yearly spring routine as forgetting about the Cherry Blossom Parade, wondering what Evgeny Kuznetsov had for his pregame meal, or screaming into the void because the Lerners let Anthony Rendon walk.
(I even have theme music for this stage: Donny Hathaway, side one "Giving Up" is a perfect aural exfoliation of the tanking mentality...the inevitable bookend to the Halloween hope of Nils Lofgren's "Bullets Fever.")
Fantasy-wise, it's an important stage of the campaign.
Because as we lock into the home stretch of our fantasy schedule, aside from unfortunate happenings (injuries) and pre-playoff brinksmanship (sudden load management), tanking is our best source for fresh fantasy value.
Let's begin our descent by taking a look at a fading team that is primed to pull the cord and some players who could gain value.
Let's talk about your Washington Wizards.
Sorry. I have to start here. Like they told me back in film school: "write what you know." (Which, by the way? Horrible advice.)
Westbrook is quietly posting a vastly underrated fantasy season. Going by my main fantasy MVP metric -- overperformance of an early-round ADP -- Westbrook qualifies for my MVP discussion. And Beal is right around the level of sheer excellence his managers would expect.
Technically, the Wizards are not out of the playoffs. But come on. Going 2-8 in over the last 10 games would appear to be natural selection taking hold.
But no matter what? The Wizards can prove rewarding for savvy fantasy managers. Because they are capable of being an explosive source of fantasy production.
The Wizards are eighth in points per game (114.9 PPG). And, most importantly, first in pace (104.2).
Yeah, they're inefficient on offense (20th in offensive efficiency.) A fleeting rumor on defense (last in points given up per game at 120.2). But as fantasy managers, we don't care about a casual defensive approach, as long the pace stays in the red.
NBA Playoff conditions: depressing. Endgame fantasy conditions: dinner.
As long as the Wizards don't devolve into a bunch of timeshares at the three, four and five, they will provide all kinds of fantasy goodness down the stretch. And therein lies the rub. Because: Scott Brooks.
So the Wizards just made a deal. Mo Wagner and Troy Brown Jr. to the Bulls for Daniel Gafford and Chandler Hutchison.
This is not a "we're tanking!" dump. This is a rearranging the deck chairs maneuver. Dealing two semi-intriguing assets to fill a need at the five. A need the Wizards have struggled to fill since Thomas Bryant went down for the duration.
The names involved may seem obscure. But any name getting 25-plus minutes in the Wizards' system.
Let's focus on steady minutes first. Let's talk Rui Hachimura.
His stats for the season are teetering at the precipice. The brink of fantasy relevance. Tick off Hachimura's averages (13.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 0.9 3PG, 0.9 STL+BLK, 56.2 TS%). You'll see a player who's tantalizingly close to becoming roster-worthy.
Look even closer. Look at two metrics that tend to build in tandem for good young fantasy players: Usage Rate and PER. Hachimura's Usage is subtly climbing: 17.4 for the season, 18.3 over the past two weeks. His PER... not so hot. Just 11.9 for the year. Which is actually a slight regression. (Deep down, I wonder if Westbrook is vulturing too many rebounds.)
But other than the PER, Hachimura precisely fits the profile of a player primed for a tank-driven spike in fantasy value.
The opportunity is there. The minutes are sky-high: 37.8 MPG over his last three games.
The eternal question with Hachimura? Can he learn how to play with a steady supply of edge. When he puts it all together, like he did in recent back-to-back close losses to the Bucks (combined 51 points, 18 rebounds, 7 3s, and 4 steals, on 20-of-36 shooting), Hachimura resembles a difference-making fantasy forward.
But then, Hachimura will suddenly lose that edge. And revert. Not to absolute box score zero, but a close facsimile. Some empty points. A few rebounds. 1.5 3s. And that's it.
But as I mentioned last week, follow the rebounds. Rebounds are a good stat to measure whether or not a player's head is in his game (or elsewhere.) When Hachimura corrals 7 rebounds or better, his overall box score improves. The defensive counting stats show up, and presto: fantasy relevance.
One subtle timeshare to watch: Hachimura vs. Davis Bertans. I know Bertans just got his money. I know he's capable of losing consciousness behind-the-arc. But I've heard his name floated in trade scenarios. Maybe he isn't part of their future.
If the Wizards swap Bertans for future assets, or decide to move him in the offseason? Hachimura's value will rise. Just based on the fact that he'll get a few more green lights per game.
Speaking of timeshares, let's talk the five.
When Bryant went down, it hurt me. It's still hurting me. In my opinion the Wizards' playoff aspirations went with Bryant. With Bryant, you could see the Wizards getting their feet under them and playing .500 basketball.
Without Bryant? At the five... you get meatloaf.
(And before I went on the Mediterranean Diet in a valiant attempt to get Mrs. Cregan stop referring to me as "hey, you"? I loved meatloaf. But now I'm quasi-pescatarian. And I can see why you wouldn't want an inchoate mash-mash of once-identifiable ingredients. At the five or on your dinner table.)
Without Bryant? You had Alex Len/Robin Lopez/Mo Wagner.
Over the last two weeks? Here was that three-headed hydra's minutes per game: 19.9/17.9/19.4. They averaged 9.9/8.0/7.5 points per game. 5.6/3.1/1.5 rebounds. 0.0/0.1/0.5 3-pointers. 1.0/0.7/3.0 steals+blocks.
Len and Lopez have both spent chunks of their careers on the fantasy radar (to be fair, Lopez once was a real fantasy asset.)
Now, there will be an onus on seeing if Gafford is the short-term fix. Fantasy-wise, he brings the one stat all these other centers lacked: blocks. Gafford's per-36 minute blocks rate? 3.2 per game. That stat alone makes Gafford the biggest shot-blocking threat the Wizards have had in years.
Nowhere has coach Scott Brook's magic-8-ball-driven rotational algorithm proved more frustrating than center. But if Gafford could get up to 24-26 MPG? He could turn some heads in the fantasy playoffs. Especially in points leagues, where blocks are at a 4-point premium.
Finally, let's talk the three.
If Brooks was serving meatloaf at center, at small forward he's been slinging scrapple.
Like I don't know what's in that thing. Like I don't want to know. Like I just want it to provide semblance of nutritional value without giving me night sweats.
You might peruse a Wizard box score, look at who got minutes at small forward, and say (in the immortal words of Butch Cassidy): "who are those guys?" I get texts from friends asking me the same thing.
Well, I'll tell you. One guy is Garrison Matthews.
Became the starter during that little Wizard hot streak last month. So out of superstition (another one of Brooks' key analytic tools), Matthews started getting all kinds of minutes. So many minutes I began to wonder if Brooks was forgetting to take Matthews out of the game.
Matthews seems like a nice guy, and a stabilizing on-court presence, but fantasy-wise, he's kind of invisible. Some 3s and that's it. As in it.
You had Troy Brown Jr. Brown is a bit of an enigma, where it wasn't always clear why he didn't play more. He has some legit point-forward upside. Hopefully, the fresh start gives him a chance to reset.
But now the guy is Deni Avdija.
Out of all the players on Washington's roster, Avdija owns the most untapped fantasy potential.
Hachimura won't have what we'd call "a breakout." Hachimura could become "serviceable." Avdija could have a breakout.
I'm a masochist. I watch every Wizards game. And what tells me Avdija could have "it" is how he performs in quarter-closing situations. He tends to make things happen in the final minute. Just has a head for that particular moment. Which tells me, if Avdija gets a steady 24-26 MPG, that mindset should translate.
We've already seen it in fits and starts. In his last tilt (against the Knicks): 14 points, 4 rebounds, 2 3s. In just 22 minutes. He can play some counting-stats D. He rebounds well.
His foundational issue is shooting. Not a lot of consistency there just yet. For the season, he's only shooting 62.5% from the free throw line. His overall TS%: 54.5%. Not atrocious for a rookie, but there's room for improvement.
Avdija has one more factor in his fantasy favor: resume.
While his contemporaries were dreaming of March Madness, Avdija was playing pro ball in Israel. Young players with professional experience instead of college experience? Tend to round into fantasy form a little faster.
Brooks has pulled a lot of rotational transgressions this campaign, but he could make up for a lot by giving Avdija real minutes down the stretch.
Because deep down? I'm a very forgiving guy.
After all, I forgive the Wizards every year.
P.S. If you get a minute today? Spend it on fellow D.C. native Elgin Baylor.
I understand it's too easy to think of Baylor in contemporary Clipper terms (as Donald Sterling's long-suffering GM). But Baylor is so beyond worthy of a deeper dive and a little bit of your time. And some appreciation.
Maybe read a couple of columns. (I urgently recommend this fantastic piece by Jason Reid). Look at some YouTube. And then, look at the stats. Because before Baylor hurt his knee for good in 1965? People who were there will tell you: Jordan before Jordan.
Oh, and when you look at Baylor's numbers? You'll notice in his best statistical year, 1961-62, Baylor only played 48 games. That's because Baylor posted 38.3 PPG, 18.6 RPG and 4.6 APG while serving in the Army. He was scoring 38.3 points per game for the Lakers on weekend passes.
So... what did you do last weekend?
