ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 21st are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
​​Unders Aren't Fun, Just Profitable: We've got a trio of games tonight that saw the home team open as an underdog of fewer than four points (Thunder, Rockets and Timberwolves). Teams in such a spot have covered 55.1% of the time this season and that's nice, but the greater edge comes in betting the total. This year, under tickets have cashed 61.4% of the time in those spots, including each of the seven past instances in which the game was decided in regulation.
​​​Backing Big 'Dogs: There are two games at the moment (could be more by tip) that feature a team that is getting more than five points in a game with a projected total north of 230 points, a spot that has proven favorable. This season, teams in such a spot are 26-21-2 ATS (55.3%) and unders are 29-20 (59.2%). Don't like the 'dog? Even better if you're angeling for an under ... unders are 15-6 in those games when the favorite covers. ​​​
​​Adding Onyeka: The Hawks have ruled out center Clint Capela for tonight's matchup against the Bulls, a move that shifts Onyeka Okongwu into an important role as the team's top rebounder against Chicago. Averaging nine boards over his past five games and with potential to produce blocks as the rotation's primary rim protector, Okongwu is a solid get at $4,900 on DraftKings and can be found in free agency in nearly 90% of ESPN leagues.
​​​Duren Duren: We endorsed Detroit's Jalen Duren (86% available in ESPN leagues) as a solid streaming play against the Jazz last night and the rookie center tallied 15 points with 14 rebounds while missing just two of his nine shots from the floor. A recent shift to the starting lineup has him averaging nearly 30 minutes and pacing the team in potential and realized rebounds over the past six games. The 76ers are up next, a team that notably ranks 29th in rebounding percentage. ​​​
Mo in Orlando: The Orlando Magic have another "Mo" beyond Mo Bamba that is proving productive, as Moritz Wagner (90% available) has thrived since joining the starting lineup in place of an injured Wendell Carter Jr. earlier this month. Franz's older brother has averaged 14.6 points, 7.4 boards, 1.1 3-pointers, and 1.4 combined steals and blocks over his last 10 games and figures to start and play a sizable role again tonight against the Rockets.
Dallas Depth: The Mavericks won't have Dorian Finney-Smith or Maxi Kleber in the lineup tonight due to respective injuries as Dallas faces the Timberwolves in Minnesota. With sharpshooter Tim Hardaway Jr. no longer on the injury report, his shot-happy profile projects well in a matchup with a Minnesota defense allowing 44.9 DraftKings points per game to shooting guards over the past 15 games, seventh-most over this sample.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-2)
Money line: Cavaliers (-130), Bucks (+110)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.6 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (64.9%)
Questionable: Lamar Stevens
Doubtful: Khris Middleton
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
7:00 p.m ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: 76ers (-11.5)
Money line: 76ers (-650), Pistons (+460)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.7 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (90.7%)
Questionable: Furkan Korkmaz
Ruled Out: Tyrese Maxey
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Joel Embiid over 41.5 points + rebounds. Embiid who has averaged 33.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG this season and faces a Pistons team that allows opponents to shoot a high percentage of field goal attempts within four feet and the basket. -- Moody
Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-6)
Money line: Hawks (-250), Bulls (+205)
Total: 235.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.8 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (67.3%)
Questionable: Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr.
Ruled Out: Clint Capela
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Bogdan Bogdanovic (rostered in 51.7% of ESPN leagues). Bogdanovic in a great position on Wednesday night against a Bulls team susceptible to long distance shooting. Bogdanovic has averaged 18.1 points per game, scored 20 or more fantasy points in five consecutive games, and three games with 40 points or more. -- Moody
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Line: Celtics (-10)
Money line: Celtics (-480), Pacers (+360)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.9 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (85.9%)
Questionable: Marcus Smart
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Tatum has averaged 31.8 PPG, 3.8 APG and 8.3 RPG at home this season and should be well rested after sitting out on Sunday. -- Moody
Best bet: Pacers +10.0. Both teams enter this game on two-game losing streaks with eight wins in their past 20 games combined. However, even though the Pacers have only won three of their past 11 games, they rarely get blown out. Indiana hasn't lost a game by more than six points in over 10 games. Each of their past six losses have come to presumptive playoffs teams and have been extremely competitive. The Celtics deserve to be favored here, but with the way they've played as of late, it's a stretch for them to give double digit points. -- Snellings
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-12.5)
Money line: Nets (-800), Warriors (+550)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.6 points
BPI Win%: Nets (85.9%)
Questionable: JaMychal Green, Donte DiVincenzo
Ruled Out: Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jonathan Kuminga (rostered in 6.3% of ESPN) is on the streaming radar for a Warriors team who will be without Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins on Wednesday night. Kuminga should play ample minutes against the Nets. He averages 16.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists per 40 minutes. -Eric Moody
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Knicks (-1.5)
Money line: Knicks (-130), Raptors (+110)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.5 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (57.3%)
Questionable: Quentin Grimes, Khem Birch, Gary Trent Jr.
Ruled Out: Obi Toppin, Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr.
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Chris Boucher (rostered in 44.4% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch ruled out. When given minutes, he's been a very productive fantasy player. Boucher has averaged 19.1 points and 11.0 rebounds per 40 minutes this season. -- Moody
Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Magic (-1)
Money line: Magic (-115), Rockets (-105)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.4 points
BPI Win%: Rockets (57.6%)
Questionable: Franz Wagner
Ruled Out: Gary Harris, Jalen Suggs, Chuma Okeke, Wendell Carter Jr.
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Markelle Fultz (available in 79.3% of leagues) is coming off one of the best games of his career. He dropped 24 points (11-of-19 FG), nine assists, six rebounds, two 3-pointers and a steal on Monday against the Hawks. He's averaged 12.9 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.1 RPB, 1.5 SPG and 0.9 3PG in 28.9 MPG over his past eight games. -- Snellings
Best bet: Magic -1.0. The Magic had quietly won six-straight games, including two straight wins Celtics, before losing a one-point squeaker at Atlanta on Monday. They are playing really good ball right now and should be favored to get the win over a Rockets squad that has lost three straight games and seven of their past 11 overall. -- Snellings
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Mavericks (-3)
Money line: Mavericks (-155), Timberwolves (+130)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.1 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (51.9%)
Questionable: Dwight Powell, Kyle Anderson
Ruled Out: Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Taurean Prince, Jordan McLaughlin, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Tim Hardaway Jr. (rostered in 20% of ESPN leagues). Since joining the Mavericks starting lineup, Hardaway Jr. has averaged 16.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG and 1.1 APG. -- Moody
Best bet: Spencer Dinwiddie over 16.5 points. Dinwiddie has emerged as a consistent secondary source of scoring for the Mavericks. He has averaged 16.6 points per game and should have success against a Timberwolves defense that allows opponents to shoot 54.3% from the field. -- Moody
Fantasy Streamer: Naz Reid (available in 95.4% of leagues) Reid has started three straight games with Rudy Gobert out. He has been getting more playing time in general and has performed well when called upon, particularly in the games that Gobert has missed. Reid has averaged 19.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG and 1.5 BPG over his past three games. -- Snellings
Best bet: Timberwolves +3. The Mavericks and Timberwolves are fairly evenly matched. The Wolves have the slightly better record while the Mavericks have the slightly better scoring margin. They are currently the ninth and 10th seed respectively in the West. But the Timberwolves have won three straight games, are playing at home and just beat the Mavs by 10 points Monday -- Snellings
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Line: Blazers (-3.5)
Money line: Blazers (-170), Thunder (+143)
Total: 235.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.7 points
BPI Win%: Blazers (50.8%)
Questionable: ​
Ruled Out: Josh Giddey, Darius Bazley, Ousmane Dieng, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 37.5 points + assists. Gilgeous-Alexander is in the midst of a career season. He finished with 41 points + assists against the Blazers on Monday and is well positioned to have a repeat performance on Wednesday night. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 31.3 PPG and 5.8 APG this season. The Blazers rank 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Isaiah Joe (rostered in 0.2% of ESPN leagues). Joe is on the streaming radar with Josh Giddey ruled out. Joe has scored 24 or more fantasy points and played 23 or more minutes in two consecutive games. -- Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Line: Kings (-6)
Money line: Kings (-250), Lakers (+205)
Total: 240 points
BPI Projected Total: 241.7 points
BPI Win%: Kings (69.6%)
Questionable: Russell Westbrook, Austin Reaves, LeBron James
Ruled Out: Anthony Davis, Juan Toscano-Anderson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m.ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-8)
Money line: Clippers (-335), Hornets (+260)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.8 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (64.1%)
Doubtful: Terry Rozier
Ruled Out: Dennis Smith Jr., Cody Martin
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
