ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 23rd are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
​​Money spot: The Rockets are a big home 'dog against the Mavs tonight and while the line makes sense logically, it's proven to be an exploitable spot this season. Entering tonight, home teams getting at least five points are 29-19-3 ATS. If that's not impressive, how does a 25-26 outright record sound? That's good for a 31.1-unit profit if you blindly bet a unit per instance. These spots are rare, so get involved if you buy these early trends.
Smoke and Mirrors: Yes, the Magic have covered nine straight and yes, their arrow seems to be pointing up with some nice young talent. No, that doesn't mean they are ready to cover this sort of number (vs. Spurs). Thus far in the month of December, favorites that entered the game with a sub-.500 record are an ugly 9-19 ATS. The Spurs are 4-3 over their past seven after opening the season 6-18 and if you look closer, those three losses came in large part because of a single bad quarter. The numbers like San Antonio with the points, even on the backend of a back-to-back.
.​Detroit State of Mind: Pick on the Pistons all you want, but your hard-earned dollars should be on them when points are expected. Detroit is 5-2 ATS in their seven games with a projected total of at least 230 points and over tickets have cashed in all five of those covers.
​​Rousing returns: A series of statistical stars are making their way back to the floor for their respective teams. Denver's Michael Porter Jr. has been upgraded to questionable after missing multiple weeks to a heel injury. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, could be getting sharpshooter Desmond Bane in the lineup again now that he's been upgraded to questionable for Memphis. Orlando hasn't had two-way center Wendell Carter Jr. for much of the season due to a foot ailment, while the gifted big man is still a free agent in 30% of ESPN leagues. ​​​
Rising rocket: Kenyon Martin Jr. isn't quite the human highlight reel, but he is quite entertaining with his ability to live near the rim. With Houston ruling out Eric Gordon and Jae'Sean Tate for tonight's matchup against the Mavericks, "KMJ" is positioned as a top streaming option and DFS value at just $3,700 on DraftKings. Rookie Tari Eason is also interesting in deeper leagues given a likely uptick in minutes.
​​​Spacing the Suns: The Phoenix Suns won't have Devin Booker or Cameron Payne in tonight's matchup with the Grizzlies. With Jae Crowder away from the team and Cameron Johnson still sidelined, this amounts to an incredible amount of shooting volume missing from the rotation. Enter Landry Shamet, who is rostered in fewer than one percent of ESPN leagues and yet just dropped season-high 31 points earlier this week while hitting nine of a whopping 16 3-point attempts.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-2.5)
Money line: Nets (-140), Bucks (+118)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.4 points
BPI Win%: Nets (63.5%)
Questionable: Yuta Watanabe
Ruled Out: Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Bucks +2.5. The Nets enter this game as the hottest team in the NBA, winners of seven straight games and 16 of their last 21 overall. But, if you look at the teams they've beaten and lost to during this stretch, they still have the most difficulty with dominant frontcourt scorers that can control the paint. And no team can do that better than the Bucks, who also happen to have the best record in the NBA and a roster full of star players that are slowly starting to all get healthy at the same time. I'll take the points with the better team. -- Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida
Line: Magic (-8)
Money line: Magic (-320), Spurs (+250)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.5 points
BPI Win%: Magic (70.5%)
Ruled Out: Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Gary Harris, Chuma Okeke, Jonathan Isaac, Blake Wesley, Keldon Johnson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Markelle Fultz (available in 79.1% of leagues) has played well since returning from injury, and his level slowly continues to rise. In his last five games, he's averaged 14.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.6 RPG and 2.0 SPG in 30.4 MPG. -- Snellings
Best bet: Moritz Wagner (rostered in 12.4% of ESPN leagues) is still a viable streamer even with Wendell Carter Jr. playing on Friday night after missing over a month with a foot strain. Carter Jr. could see limited minutes in his first game back. Wagner has scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. Against a Spurs team that ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions, he has a very favorable matchup. -- Moody
Best bet: Paolo Banchero over 26.5 points + rebounds. The Spurs are allowing more points and rebounds per game than any other team to power forwards this season. Banchero will have a great matchup against them. This season, he averages 22.0 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game. -- Moody
LA Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers
7:00 p.m ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: 76ers (-3.5)
Money line: 76ers (-170), Clippers (+143)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.3 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (71.2%)
Questionable: John Wall
Ruled Out: Tyrese Maxey
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: De'Anthony Melton (rostered in 46.2%) is still on the streaming radar with Tyrese Maxey still out due to a foot injury. He provides fantasy managers with solid statistical production across the board. Melton has averaged 30.2 fantasy points per game this season. Against the Clippers, he can meet or exceed that number. -- Moody
Best bet: Joel Embiid over 3.5 total assists. While it's easy to fixate on Embiid's awesome scoring or nightly double-doubles, his passing ability often slips under the radar. Embiid has dished four or more assists in three straight games, and in 11 of his last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Clippers have tied for the sixth-most assists allowed to opposing centers in the NBA. -- Snellings
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-9)
Money line: Hawks (-420), Pistons (+320)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.8 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (80.9%)
Questionable: Clint Capela
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Bogdan Bogdanovic (available in 48.7% of leagues). Bogdanovic Bowl, part 1: Bogdan has proven to be a strong scorer as either a sixth man or a starter for the Hawks, with six straight double-figure games in which he's averaged 21.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.7 3PG and 2.7 APG in 32.5 MPG. -- Snellings
Best bet: Bojan Bogdanovic over 20.5 points. Bogdanovic Bowl, part 2. Bojan is coming off consecutive down scoring efforts, but in the nine games before that he'd averaged 23.7 PPG while going over 20.5 points in six of the nine games. Tonight's opponents, the Hawks, have been particularly friendly to opposing small forwards, allowing the second-most points per game to the position this season -- Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Duren over 10.5 rebounds. In seven of Duren's past eight games, he has had 11 or more rebounds. In addition, he has played 24 minutes or more in eight consecutive games. Due to the Hawks' poor defensive rebounding and poor shooting, Duren should have many opportunities to stockpile rebounds. -- Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Line: Celtics (-9)
Money line: Celtics (-420), Timberwolves (+320)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.7 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (86%)
Questionable: Marcus Smart, Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson
Ruled Out: Taurean Prince, Jordan McLaughlin, Karl-Anthony Towns
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Timberwolves +9. The Celtics have been awesome this season but have stumbled a bit of late with losses in five of their last six games. The Timberwolves are playing generally well, winners of three of their last four games, and have only lost by double digits twice in their last 11 games. This spread is too large for the way both teams are playing. -- Snellings
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:30 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-4)
Money line: Cavaliers (-190), Raptors (+158)
Total: 215 points
BPI Projected Total: 223 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (70.5%)
Questionable: Evan Mobley, Khem Birch
Ruled Out: Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Knicks (-5.5)
Money line: Knicks (-225), Bulls (+185)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (71.9%)
Questionable: Goran Dragic
Ruled Out: Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Knicks -5.5. The Knicks are playing great basketball, winners of eight of their last nine games, but they seem to be a particularly bad matchup for the Bulls. These teams have played twice in the last two weeks, with both games in Chicago, and the Knicks won both games by an average of 15.5 points (the closest win was by eight points). They should be able to take advantage of the same mismatches at home on Friday night. -- Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 28.5 points + assists. Brunson scored seven points and handed out 12 assists in a disappointing performance against the Raptors on Wednesday night. Against a Bulls team that allows opponents the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage, he has a very good chance to bounce back. -- Moody
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Line: Heat (-6.5)
Money line: Heat (-260), Pacers (+210)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 229 points
BPI Win%: Heat (66.3%)
Questionable: Jimmy Butler, Aaron Nesmith, Tyrese Haliburton, Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon
Ruled out: Gabe Vincent
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-6)
Money line: Mavericks (-225), Rockets (+185)
Total: 221 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.9 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (72.4%)
Ruled Out: Kemba Walker, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Garrison Mathews, Eric Gordon, Jae'Sean Tate
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Spencer Dinwiddie over 17.5 points. Dinwiddie has averaged 17.4 PPG over his last eight games. He could exceed those per-game averages against a Rockets defense that ranks 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Line: Thunder (-2)
Money line: Thunder (-130), Pelicans (+110)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (50.3%)
Ruled Out: Larry Nance Jr., Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Trey Murphy III (available in 78.8% of leagues), Herbert Jones (available in 70.8% of leagues) and Naji Marshall (available in 97.9% of leagues) are all getting big minutes for the Pelicans with Zion Williamson (COVID), Brandon Ingram (toe) and Larry Nance Jr. all sidelined. All three have had strong games in recent games in their expanded roles and should be key cogs in what projects to be a high-scoring game. -- Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Kenrich Williams (rostered in 0.7% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar against the Pacers. Indiana ranks 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions. In three consecutive games, Williams has scored at least 26 fantasy points and played at least 27 minutes. -- Moody
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Line: Nuggets (-5)
Money line: Nuggets (-205), Blazers (+170)
Total: 232.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.9 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (73.6%)
Probable: Jeff Green, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Damian Lillard, Drew Eubanks
Questionable: Jamal Murray
Doubtful: Justise Winslow
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Line: Grizzlies (-2)
Money line: Grizzlies (-125), Suns (+105)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.1 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (51.4%)
Questionable: Jock Landale, Josh Okogie
Ruled Out: Cameron Payne, Devin Booker
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Line: Kings (-8.5)
Money line: Kings (-400), Wizards (+310)
Total: 237 points
BPI Projected Total: 240 points
BPI Win%: Kings (73%)
Questionable: Richaun Holmes
Ruled Out: Kristaps Porzingis, Deni Avdija
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Lakers (-3.5)
Money line: Lakers (-165), Hornets (+140)
Total: 239.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 239.3 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (0%)
Probable: LeBron James, Russell Westbrook
Questionable: Terry Rozier, Austin Reaves
Ruled Out: Dennis Smith Jr., Anthony Davis
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Mason Plumlee (rostered in 33.1% of ESPN leagues) is a viable streamer against a Lakers team with Anthony Davis. In six of his last seven games, he has scored 30 or more fantasy points. This season, Plumlee has averaged 27.3 minutes per game and shouldn't be overlooked if you need a center. -- Moody
Analytics edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Boston Celtics (123.9)
2. Sacramento Kings (123.4)
3. Atlanta Hawks (122.7)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. San Antonio Spurs (108.2)
2. Toronto Raptors (111.8)
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (111.8)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Boston Celtics (86%)
2. Atlanta Hawks (80.9%)
3. Denver Nuggets (73.6%)
