Christmas Day is the unofficial second start of the NBA season and our betting experts have their holiday best bets for all five games.
Philadelphia 76ers (-2, 217.5) at New York Knicks
12 p.m ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
The Knicks recently won eight straight games and covered in all of them! How much do you factor that in when looking at this game, and which team do you like to cover?
Doug Kezirian: To me, it all depends on the sport. For the NBA, which has a long season of 82 games that features peaks and valleys, I probably prioritize recent performance more than most. That's because the respected bettors who influence the market weigh season-long stats and even use last year's stats as a baseline. So, from a mathematical standpoint, there could be opportunity in NBA betting lines if you think a recent trend has merit. Additionally, I prefer if there is something tangible that has led to the recent trend, such as a coaching change, a key player's return, a lineup adjustment, etc.
Eric Moody: That trend is important. The Knicks are a balanced team ranking in the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating. This team has greatly benefited from Jalen Brunson's offseason addition, and that's visible on the court and in New York's record. Many criticized the signing, but it has turned out to be one of the best of the offseason. It would be a holiday gift that legitimizes the Knicks among NBA fans if they beat the 76ers. The Knicks will benefit from Philadelphia's poor rebounding. New York will play well enough to keep this game close or win outright. At home, the 76ers are 12-5-1 against the spread, unlike on the road, where they are 5-7. My recommendation is to back the Knicks.
Erin Dolan: Trends are important, but I am more concerned about the Sixers' road woes in this matchup. Philadelphia is 5-7 straight up on the road compared to 14-5 at home. Their offensive rating does not take a huge hit, but their defensive rating goes from 106 at home compare to 112 on the road. The Knicks beat the Sixers in Philly 106-104 earlier this season. James Harden and Joel Embiid were sidelined while Tyrese Maxey dropped 31 points. I am not factoring in the last matchup, but instead looking at the Sixers' road woes. I would take the points with the Knicks.
André Snellings: Trends are key indicators for the level a team is currently playing, but in this game both teams are playing well coming in. The Knicks have won nine of their last 10, but the 76ers have won seven straight by an average of 12.7 PPG since getting reacclimated to having James Harden back. Harden and Joel Embiid have been playing like the elite inside-outside duo that they were envisioned to be, and the Knicks don't have an answer for Embiid when he's playing like this. I like the 76ers to cover here.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks (-8.5, 229.5)
2:30 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
The Lakers and Mavericks are two of the worst teams in the league at covering. Lakers 12-19 ATS and Mavericks 11-19 ATS entering Friday. Does the Lakers' loss of Anthony Davis swing things toward the home-team Mavs covering in this one for you?
Moody: Taking a look at these rosters, it is obvious that the Mavericks have the advantage over the Lakers, but I doubt Dallas will win by more than eight points. Davis' loss cannot be overstated. Per game, he leads the team in points, rebounds, blocks and steals. The Lakers have not been a strong team offensively this season. Los Angeles ranks 21st in points scored per 100 possessions. LeBron James and Luka Doncic should make this a high-scoring affair. The over is 6-1-1 in the Mavericks' past eight appearances on Christmas Day. On Christmas Day, James averages 26.4 points in 16 games, and in 2021 he scored 39 against the Nets. On the national stage, especially with Davis out, James will be tasked with the bulk of the offensive burden. He can handle it. The Lakers are 10-10 against the spread over their last 20 games. My recommendation is to back Los Angeles. The Lakers should keep this game close.
Dolan: It's not my favorite play on the slate but Dallas laying eight points seem too high in this matchup. The Mavs are the second-worst cover team in the league behind the Miami Heat. Dallas is 4-5-1 ATS in its past 10 games at home. Dallas also ranks 29th in pace at home, while the Lakers rank 1st in pace on the road. Davis is a huge hit to this Lakers team, but I would have to take the points with the Lakers.
Snellings: If the Lakers had Davis, I'd expect them to win this matchup. The story changes without him, but the Lakers got a big boost with the returns of Russell Westbrook and Austin Reaves on Thursday. Westbrook is the power for the second unit, but Reeves' shooting is a key cog to making it all work. Westbrook and Reaves enter with that second unit, but typically contribute to the half-closing units when playing well. With their returns, and LeBron James playing at a high level on the big stage at Christmas, I like the Lakers to cover here. The Mavericks are not playing up to level, and 8.5 points is too much for them to give.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 224.5)
5 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston
Do you expect any player(s) in this matchup of Eastern Conference powers to exceed their season averages? Looking for some of your favorite props here.
Moody: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 4.5 assists. With time, Antetokounmpo has developed into an excellent facilitator and passer. While defenses sell out to contain Antetokounmpo, I enjoy watching him make the correct read and find an open teammate when he drives to the rim. Despite a slow start, the Celtics currently rank sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions. It will take a team effort for the Bucks to defeat the Celtics. Antetokounmpo has averaged 5.6 assists per game in the regular season and playoffs against the Celtics since 2018-2019.
Snellings: I'm going with the two superstars to have monster games: Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points and Jayson Tatum over 36.5 total points + rebounds. In their playoffs matchup earlier this year, Antetkounmpo averaged 33.9 PPG across all seven games, while Tatum went off as the season progressed, averaging 33.3 PPG and 8.5 RPG in the last four games. While both teams have strong defenders, on the big stage I'm expecting to see some big numbers put up on the board.
Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, 229) at Golden State Warriors
8 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Given the Warriors' defensive troubles of late -- they allowed Brooklyn to score franchise-high 91 points in the first half on Wednesday -- do you think the over is a strong play in this one? It's worth noting, too, that the Warriors lead the league in hitting the over (62.5% of time) but don't have Stephen Curry available in this one.
Kezirian: I lean to the over because the Grizzlies have demonstrated an ability to keep their foot on the gas in blowouts. We just saw that on Friday in Phoenix where they dropped 66 points after holding 21-point halftime lead to win by 25. However, given the desire to avenge their playoff loss to Golden State, I worry that Memphis will defend with high intensity. I prefer to lay the points with the Grizzlies but the over is how I would play the total, if I had to.
Moody: I do believe the over is a strong play in this game. The Grizzlies rank 10th in points scored per 100 possessions without having their starting five available this season. Its offense is also bolstered by Desmond Bane's return. In this game with a national audience watching after being defeated by Golden State in last year's postseason, the Grizzlies will want to run up the score against a shorthanded Warriors team. At home, Golden State averages 120.2 points per game while allowing 117.9. A high-scoring game is likely.
Snellings: Yes, I do like the over in this game. The Warriors are a different team at home than on the road, and as Moody pointed out, when at home they tend to hit their own shots while allowing their opponents to hit theirs as well. Jordan Poole is capable of one of the best Stephen Curry impressions in the league, and he averaged 32.7 PPG in the three games before the Nets blew them out earlier this week. Poole, Klay Thompson and Donte DiVincenzo are capable of leading a big scoring effort for the Warriors. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies, and in particular Ja Morant, have been clear in their desire to go through the Warriors on their way up. Playing on the big stage, on Christmas Day, I expect Morant and his teammates to rev up the production against their new rivals.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-3.5, 232)
10:30 p.m ET, Ball Arena, Denver
What is your favorite prop bet in this game?
Snellings: I like Nikola Jokic over 8.5 assists. Jokic has notched eight or more assists in 12 straight games, averaging 9.8 APG in the stretch. He went over 8.5 assists in seven of those games, including the last three in a row. Jokic can operate from the high post, pulling Deandre Ayton out of the paint, and use his passing ability to run the show and rack up the assist
