My first fantasy basketball league was a simple rotisserie format founded by some Philly-area hoop heads in 1992. Fresh from the sting of seeing Charles Barkley traded at his MVP peak for the trio of Andrew Lang, Tim Perry and Jeff Hornacek, delving into the league-wide talent pool was a rewarding escape for our group of friends that season. Eventually we switched to a weekly, head-to-head category format and began to view the league in weekly segments instead of the tiring marathon feel a roto league can often produce. Most of us still play every season, and it remains the greatest salve we've found for being loyal Sixers fans.
The weekly lens honed by playing head-to-head fantasy hoops all these years serves me well in producing this Fantasy Forecaster column, as we seek to frame the league within a Monday-to-Sunday context with an eye on identifying the most meaningful statistical and scheduling trends for fantasy investors. Going forward, we will be running this column on Fridays.
With the league opening with a light three-game schedule for Tuesday night, the week doesn't really begin for most fantasy rosters until Wednesday, leading to a somewhat wonky opening stretch for most NBA teams. Twenty-two teams play three games this first week of the season, while seven play just two games. Only the Los Angeles Lakers play four games, buoying interest in some non-Kobe commodities for this first week, which we discuss in detail below.
The first week of the season, the weeks before and after the All-Star Game and the final week and a half of the season are all challenging stretches for weekly fantasy leagues given the thin and varying schedules they claim. There isn't much we can do to avoid having some starters -- especially star commodities -- stuck with two-game slates during these unique weeks. The best bet in leagues that lock weekly rosters might be maximizing utility spots with players who play at least three games as a cutoff to ensure enough volume in the counting stats.
Over the past several months, we have been working off last season's stats and trends in pricing players for the upcoming fantasy campaign, and for this first week we will still rely on trends from last season in producing our matchup ratings in the table below. As the sneakers start squeaking all over NBA cities, data for this new campaign will begin to offer insight into the developing 2014-15 marketplace, and our ratings will shift accordingly.
After taking a look at the matchup trends for short week ahead in the tables below, we offer specifics on some of the more interesting scenarios around the league along with some of the stronger values available in most ESPN leagues for this inaugural week of the regular season.
"R" matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H") and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
Team Trends: Notes and news from around the league
Upbeat Jazz: The Utah Jazz claim some interesting young commodities primed to benefit from the presence of new coach Quin Snyder in Salt Lake City. After producing the fifth-lowest pace -- the number of possessions per 48 minutes -- last season, the Jazz are expected to rebound and run with their young rotation. This could be beneficial for the output of Alec Burks, who is eligible at both guard positions and finished last season as a viable fantasy starter (15.1 points, 1.0 steals and 0.7 3-pointers in 29.8 minutes per game after the All-Star break). Even with Dante Exum in the fold, Burks remains a candidate for 30 minutes per night this season as the Australian man of mystery adapts. A leap in pace could also be of benefit to Jazz opponents, as Utah allowed the highest field goal percentage (47.3) and most points per 100 possessions (109.1) in the league last season. Despite what is regarded as a solid foundation of young big men, little has been done in terms of personnel to solidify shoddy perimeter defense -- the Jazz ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency versus shooting guards last season and 30th versus opposing point guards -- setting up opposing backcourts for some very productive nights.
Lid on the Lakers? This piece from Grantland on Byron Scott's new vision for the Lakers isn't just funny, it's also informative in that you leave the piece as a fantasy investor wondering if guys like Nick Young and Jeremy Lin will be hindered as producers in a system with an agenda on limiting 3-point attempts. From the article: "I like the fact that we only shot 10 3s," Scott said. "If we shoot between 10 and 15, I think that's a good mixture of getting to that basket and shooting 3s." As the writer points out, the league average for NBA teams last season was 21 3-point attempts per game. I have pursued Lin as a utility asset across a few lineups this week, if for the four-game element and plenty of minutes. It will be interesting to see how Scott's old-school offensive agenda might influence the shooting usage of not just Kobe Bryant (guessing he still shoots when and where he wants) but also some of the more interesting and widely available Lakers.
Pickups: Identifying players available in at least one-third of ESPN leagues
Tony Wroten (10.2 percent owned), Philadelphia 76ers: While the anti-tanking community took a hit last week, Wroten's stock continues to rise on a team bent again on leading the league in pace. With some real upside for well over 30 minutes per night given Michael Carter-Williams' early absence and a relative green light to attack the hoop in a rebound-and-run system, Wroten could be a sneaky source of steals and points this week while facing an Indiana Pacers team that posted the fifth-worst defensive efficiency rating versus point guards last season followed by soft setups versus the Milwaukee Bucks (20th in defensive efficiency versus point guards last season) and Miami Heat (19th).
Jameer Nelson (23.6 percent), Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs claim one of the rare inviting schedules this week, especially for guard play, as the Jazz (30th in defensive efficiency versus point guards) and New Orleans Pelicans (25th) both struggle in limiting opposing point guards. Significant minutes at the helm of last season's second-most prolific scoring team in terms of offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) should see Nelson's ownership rise over the coming weeks.
Terrence Ross (67.6 percent), Toronto Raptors: Already a gifted shooter, Ross also offers some upside in the steals department for investors in a similar fashion to Atlanta's Kyle Korver. But really you are acquiring his services for his 3s and healthy shooting percentages at all levels. For those needing that extra push to add this emerging sharpshooter, the Raps face three defenses that ranked 21st or worse last season in 3-point percentage allowed.
Steven Adams (5.2 percent), Oklahoma City Thunder: A schedule that includes three high-paced offensive opponents could feed Adams a steady stream of opportunities for boards and blocks this week. It's safe to assume Kendrick Perkins has fully transformed into solely an expiring contract commodity at this stage, while Adams could average almost two blocks (along with five or so fouls) if afforded over 20 minutes per game. Likely just a play for deeper formats, remember that it's often tough to find quality sources of blocks, boards and steals at the center spot.
