Early returns suggest the Knicks are winning the title and the Lakers are bottoming out, but with just nine teams having played more than one game as of press time, it's difficult to glean much from this scant sample in a fantasy context.
We've already seen some fairly massive injuries influence the marketplace. You'll find updated and in-depth analysis of the most important and interesting events in the NBA on our Fantasy Basketball blog, such as Tom Carpenter's deft breakdown of Russell Westbrook's hand injury and how investors should approach the Thunder's suddenly starless rotation. Carpenter reminds us that with two superstars sidelined, there are about 35 shots a game up for grabs in Oklahoma City. Two interesting commodities stand out above all else on the Thunder's roster, which we discuss in detail below in our "Player Pickups" section.
The fantasy fallout from promising rookie Julius Randle's season-ending leg injury already has a compelling new twist, as NBA Insider and fantasy basketball analyst Joe Kaiser suggests the Lakers' Ed Davis could be the real benefactor with an enduring uptick in minutes, usage and output, while veteran big Carlos Boozer offers a considerably lower ceiling. Davis isn't an ideal asset for this upcoming week in weekly formats, as the Lakers earned a needed respite after a busy -- and disconcerting -- first week, the only two-game team of the upcoming week.
But for future editions of the Forecaster, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Davis (owned in just 3.6 percent of ESPN leagues) earn increased attention given the impressive post-Randle sample. For those chasing down 3-point production in a league with an ever-increasing reliance on the deep ball, Kaiser details some key 3-point specialists to target on The Crossover, our Insider/Fantasy hoops hybrid.
After an abbreviated opening week, we're presented with a normal slate of games for the upcoming week of NBA action. You'll see in the table below eight teams are faced with three-game schedules, while 21 enjoy a full four-game bill.
"R" matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup), and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories, and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
Player pickups: Identifying players available in at least one third of ESPN leagues
Perry Jones (2.3 percent owned), Oklahoma City Thunder: Carpenter informs fantasy investors that while Reggie Jackson will eventually thrive in place of Westbrook once he returns from an ankle injury, "the top add, though, should be Perry Jones, who went off for 32 points (10-17 FG, 9-11 FT), 3 3s, 7 boards and 3 dimes Thursday. The 23-year-old Baylor product was one of the top natural talents in the 2012 draft and was supposed to be a long-term project on the deep Thunder roster. But now, he will be thrust into a much bigger role for at least a few weeks." The Thunder get a somewhat friendly four-game slate for Jones' purposes, as the Raptors ranked 28th in defensive efficiency versus opposing small forwards after the All-Star break last season, with the Grizzlies (14th) and Kings (15th) offering softer setups, as well.
O.J. Mayo (8.8), Milwaukee Bucks: A far more svelte Mayo enters this season, and specifically this week, with some impressive upside. The burn felt by investors last season expecting Mayo to compile big numbers in a ball-dominant role has led to drastically low ownership rates for the former USC star. While one game is our only evidence, it's somewhat clear Mayo will be afforded an abundance of freedom to loft 3-pointers under Jason Kidd's new regime. Mayo faces a friendly stretch of opponents this week, even if our rating system isn't keen on the Bucks' overall team matchups, as the Bulls already ranked in the bottom half (16th) in defensive efficiency versus shooting guards after the All-Star break last season -- and are missing defensive stopper Jimmy Butler for the coming week. The Pistons (29th) and Grizzlies (20th) offer softer setups. Considering that Indiana's perimeter defense is felled by the loss of Lance Stephenson and Paul George, even that matchup isn't so imposing.
Tony Wroten (32.1), Philadelphia 76ers: This freewheeling guard saw a 22.1 percent leap in ownership -- the third-highest spike among shooting guards in our game -- after an impressive one-game sample and an endorsement in last week's edition of this column. Heavy minutes and usage in a ball-dominant role affords Wroten elite fantasy potential in the short term as long as Michael Carter-Williams remains sidelined. But even when MCW makes his season debut, Wroten remains a fixture in the league's fastest-paced offense and presents intriguing value for steals, assists and points.
Marvin Williams (1.3), Charlotte Hornets: Forget the "bust" label and instead focus on this former top prospect's valuable role in Charlotte. It appears we can expect 30 minutes a night from Williams. And this week he faces a soft schedule that includes the Hawks' 27th-ranked defense versus opposing small forwards (again utilizing post-All-Star rates from last season). The Heat's second-ranked defense versus the position was likely a bit influenced by LeBron James, while the Lakers (25th) and Pelicans (16th) both ranked in the bottom half in defending the position after the All-Star break last season.
Opponent Performance, Past 10 games
All statistics are for teams' past 10 games played, and are defensive numbers. PPGA: Points per game allowed. FG%A: Field goal percentage allowed. 3PT%A: Three-point percentage allowed. RPG diff.: Rebounds per game differential. SPGA: Steals per game allowed. BPGA: Blocks per game allowed.
