The Jazz might have misplayed their hand in being forced to match Gordon Hayward's max contract offer from the Hornets this past offseason, but the Jazz -- in addition to Hayward's fantasy investors -- are potentially witnessing the emergence of a star in the Butler product.
LeBron James enjoys the highest average of frontcourt touches (74.9) in the league for a non-point guard (1.2 more touches than his own point guard, Kyrie Irving). James Harden is unsurprisingly second among non-point guards with 67.3 frontcourt touches per game. Harden is directly followed by Hayward at 66.6. Although this specific number might appear unlucky, it's proof that Hayward is seeing four more such touches per game this season than in 2013-14. Thanks to a dramatic leap in efficiency, Hayward is actually shooting slightly fewer shots per game than last season while enjoying a career campaign so far.
True shooting percentage, or "TS%," as you'll see it in most databases, is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals and free throws. After shooting a career-low 52 TS% last season, Hayward is enjoying a 15.9 percent spike in TS% so far this season. Hayward ranks eighth on our Player Rater, and while ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton points out in this Crossover piece that Hayward is due for a regression on 2-point shots from beyond 15 feet, better court spacing and coaching seem to support sustainable star production in a fantasy context. I certainly was too low on Hayward coming into the season, and kudos to those who have multiple shares of the surging swingman.
This coming week you'll notice the Association is taking Turkey Day off while the pigskin dominates the holiday. Given that Thursday is often just a two-game slate, this isn't really an influential loss, as this week 16 teams play four-game slates, 10 teams play three games and four play two.
"R" matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
Team trends: Notes and news from around the league
Inviting backcourts: Every NBA team has played at least 10 games as of press time, and we're essentially 13 percent of the way into the regular season. Although we don't have the firmest of samples, we can safely start discussing some early defensive trends. The Sacramento Kings are enjoying a rousing start to the season, but we should be lining up our fantasy backcourts versus them with fervor. The Kings rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards this season and 28th versus shooting guards. Opposing backcourts are averaging 44 points and 14.3 assists per game versus the Kings. If these numbers appear glaringly generous, it's likely because they are.
Even though the elevation in Salt Lake City seems to have negative influence on visitors, opposing backcourts of the Utah Jazz don't seem to be suffering for it, as the Jazz rank 25th and 22nd in defensive efficiency versus points and shooting guards, respectively. In the tables below you'll find, in order of worst defensive efficiency ratings (30th to 20th), the most generous teams in the league so far versus opposing backcourts. Here you'll find the full results for defensive efficiency versus point guards, and you'll notice that you can find the statistical allowance for specific positions using this fantasy-friendly database.
Ten worst teams in defensive efficiency versus point guards (ordered 30-21)
Ten worst teams in defensive efficiency versus shooting guards (ordered 30-21)
Player pickups: Identifying players available in half of ESPN leagues
Terrence Ross (44.2 percent owned), Toronto Raptors: With a healthy conversion rate of .437, this University of Washington product is shooting almost his current ownership percentage from 3-point range. As you'll see in the table below, Ross has been a valuable contributor over his past six games and merits more attention as an emerging shooting specialist. An inviting four-game schedule this week sets up nicely for Ross; the Lakers rank 17th in defensive efficiency versus shooting guards, while the Suns (15th) and Hawks (20th) are also middling in defending the position. The Mavericks allow the second-highest 3-point percentage in the league to opposing 2s.
Terrence Ross' stats, past six games
Danny Green (35 percent), San Antonio Spurs: Dwyane Wade was a superstar for years because of a rich collection of stats but was particularly coveted in fantasy circles thanks to a uniquely healthy block rate for a shooting guard. Wade's big-man-like block rate (percentage of opponent field goal attempts blocked while on the floor) of 2.1 percent results in 1.4 blocks per 100 possessions for his career. Green boasts an identical block rate of 2.1 and actually has averaged more (1.5) blocks per 100 possessions than Wade. Beyond a lack of scoring volume you'll find 1.8 3-pointers, 1.2 steals and .8 blocks per night. Green is fourth on Player Rater over the past seven days among shooting-guard-eligible commodities and remains widely underappreciated on the fantasy marketplace.
Channing Frye (32.5 percent), Orlando Magic: While his usage rate is down a bit from last season's brilliant fantasy effort in Phoenix, Frye is actually higher on the Player Rater this season than last, ranking 16th among centers. Overall usage has dipped, but the coveted stats for this rare stretch center come from beyond the arc, where Frye is averaging the same robust 5.3 attempts per game as last season. During last season's 21st-place finish on the Player Rater among centers, Frye shot 3-pointers on 56 percent of his total attempts. He is now lofting them at a 64 percent clip while proving more efficient than ever. Such freedom to shoot from deep affords Frye a supremely valuable role as a 3-point specialist at a shallow position.
Spencer Hawes (14.7 percent), Los Angeles Clippers: Hawes likely will be a popular name in daily fantasy circles this week and arguably merits a streaming start in 12-team leagues given the soft slate ahead. The Clips come in as one of five "10" teams in our rating system. The big men for the Clippers could feast this week given meetings with the Hornets (26th in defensive efficiency versus opposing centers), Pistons (14th) and Rockets (22nd). Although seeing only 18 minutes per night is possibly too limiting for 10-team action, Hawes is producing nearly one 3-pointer per night (.9) and 1.2 blocks -- worthy numbers in deeper or daily formats at a shallow center position.
