Fear of dynastic domination from the Golden State Warriors didn't dissuade other NBA franchises from being bold and aggressive, as waves of superstar-laden trades defined the offseason. Instead of running from the Voltron of generational talents the Warriors have assembled, the league is in pursuit of the Warriors with historic aggressiveness.
The transformative offseason was enthralling, given how many major questions it created; the impending regular season is almost here to finally answer them. How will ball-dominant lead guards Chris Paul and James Harden, who ranked in the top eight in touches per game last season, mesh in Houston? Can Kyrie Irving take his already impressive offensive arsenal to a new level sans LeBron James? James, after all, was third in the NBA in touches, while Isaiah Thomas was third in the NBA in usage rate last season.
And that's just it -- as fantasy managers, we're tasked with gauging how all of these new situations and rotations will play out on the floor in the context of a market for value. I'm personally all-in on Irving's ascension with the Boston Celtics in part because of the usage opportunities he'll net without James and in place of Thomas. Data doesn't tell the entire story of what will happen, but without much relevant film from the preseason, it's our best beacon for what might happen.
If you've already drafted your fantasy basketball team(s), then you've already begun to navigate this captivating new marketplace. For those still yet to draft over the weekend, I suggest you leverage the insight, analysis, research and rankings you'll find in our draft kit.
Basketball is increasingly closing the gap with baseball in regard to how much information and data are widely available. The NBA's player-tracking data, for example, is fueled by a camera system affixed to the catwalks of arenas around the league that captures data at a rate of 25 times per second. From this ocean of information we can find out who led the NBA in half-court touches per game. You can guess it might have been a certain guard for Oklahoma City. Did you know Jusuf Nurkic averaged more rebounding opportunities (defined by being within a few feet of an available rebound) after the All-Star break last season than all but seven other players? The rebounding index in the league's player tracking index does.
Acknowledging opportunity rates such as touches, potential assists and rebounding chances offers us a more predictive window than merely chasing the raw totals we find in box scores. My essential point is that you can and should empower your management decisions with as many resources as possible. The best part of fantasy hoops, as is the universal truth across all fantasy sports, is that only you get to decide how you want to build your roster as you survey the season ahead.
Throughout the marathon NBA season, as you'll find in the sections below, I'll share a macro overview of the week ahead with regard to each team's schedule and matchup ratings. I'll also seek to convey telling trends such as shifting schemes and important rotational news as the season matures.
With that, welcome to the first Forecaster of the year. Tipoff is right around the corner. No more stalking players on Instagram (well, maybe we'll still do that) -- it's time to actually watch games.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, its opponents' numbers in those categories, and its performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Schedule and ratings
Since we don't have any concrete regular-season metrics for the 2017-18 campaign to inform us, the ratings in the schedule above should be taken somewhat lightly. It's safe to assume the Warriors are still amazing on both sides of the ball and the Spurs will still be among the best defensive teams in the league, but I think it's best to start your stars for this abbreviated first slate of the season versus letting these ratings serve as a differentiation point at this primordial phase of the season.
For now, I think it's best to use the schedule above as a way to potentially balance out games played in weekly formats. For example, Thursday and Sunday are really light slates, so if you plan on having a few streaming spots on your roster, trying to add games from those light days could serve as an advantage in minutes over your competition.
Exhibition trends
How can we identify players due for rewarding surges in opportunity rates who might have slipped past you and your league mates in the draft? Before the actual regular-season sample begins, we can try to sift through what can be noisy preseason data.
As I mentioned in my piece on draft tiers in points leagues, I think we need to pursue a delicate balance when evaluating preseason results. It's tempting to call the preseason meaningless, but I think there are some avenues to pursue for revealing information. This past season and offseason marked the first time in 46 years we didn't see a coach fired, so there aren't any obvious schematic shifts to consider around the league. But with such massive personnel overhauls around the league, I think we should still respect any sizable changes in scheme over the exhibition season compared to last.
A stat I've fallen for this past offseason is field goal frequency, which basically just means the percentage of a team's shots that come from either 3-point range or inside the arc. For instance, the Rockets led the league and set an all-time record with 46.2 percent of their shots coming from 3-point range, while league average was 31.6 percent last season. It's clear Houston was a rewarding resource for 3-point production last season, as specialists such as Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon confirmed.
So what does the preseason data set from the past few weeks tell us about shot frequency around the league? Well, Houston is lofting an absurd 58.8 percent of its shots from 3-point range, but we already knew the Rockets were leading the space race. I find it compelling, though, that the Chicago Bulls are fourth among NBA teams in the preseason with 43 percent of their shots from beyond. Last season, Chicago was 28th in the league in 3-point frequency.
Is this just a trial approach that won't translate into the regular season? It's possible, but I'm banking on the team's sizable personnel changes to allow for a sizable change in how the Bulls play. Maybe they will afford us several helpful specialists and deep sleepers. The Suns, Hawks, Heat and Bucks are also teams with notable upticks in 3-point frequency during the preseason.
For player-specific preseason analysis, be sure to check out my waiver wire column this coming Sunday, as I'll dive deep into the exhibition season to unearth any potential gems the market has overlooked.
Pursue the process? I'm in a few drafts this upcoming weekend and even early next week, and I'm excited to see how Joel Embiid's stock will play out. As amazingly small as the sample is for Embiid's preseason production, the fact his per-36 rates over just one game are 53.7 PPG, 17.1 RPG, 7.3 APG and 2.4 BPG is the stuff fantasy superstardom is made of.
Sure, he's historically fragile, and as a 76ers fan I live with a fairly constant case of agita, but I'm not sure there is a better reward for the inherent risk Embiid's profile presents. If you have a draft or two still to go, maybe try to reach on Embiid in the third round or so -- I know I will.
Play on playa (rata)
The Player Rater is an indispensable index for quickly identifying value. It's a bit noisy early in the season, but since it offers seven- and 15-day splits once we're that far into the season, I don't think it's really ever too early to consult it as a resource. It's a propitiatory index ESPN offers that is essentially a way to spotlight positive and negative deviation for a given player across several categories and with respect to positional value.
I'll allow former colleague and passionate Sonics fan Josh Whitling's 2007 explanation of the Player Rater to support my case:
"In each of the scoring categories, a number is calculated that represents the average total in that category. If a player has that average exactly, his rating for that category is 0.00. The numbers then represent how much a player is above or below that average. If the rating is positive, then that player is an above-average fantasy player in that category. If it is negative, the player is below average in that category. All ratings are then added together to get a grand total player rating, and the players are ranked accordingly."
It will take a few weeks for the Player Rater to prove actionable, but it's an indispensable tool that was as useful in 2007 as it is now.
