For all the talk of the eventual extinction of the elite center in a league that celebrates small ball and floor spacing, it's compelling to note that four centers are currently in the top 10 on the Player Rater and eight qualify in the top 20. Even as you might want to ring the sample-size alarm just four or five games into the season, I see some shifts in usage and production at the position that suggest this wave of ultra-productive pivots could prove enduring. As the modern pro game increasingly demands better and deeper shooting skills from every position on the floor, gifted bigs such as DeMarcus Cousins -- the No. 1 player in fantasy basketball at the moment -- and Marc Gasol have capably extended their range. "Boogie" is averaging an incredible 7.6 attempts from beyond the arc per night (eighth in the league), while Gasol is hitting better than 43 percent of his attempts from deep, nearly the same clip Stephen Curry has posted over the past four seasons.
What used to be somewhat of a novelty skill for part-time specialists such as Sam Perkins and eventually Channing Frye, is now becoming common at the position, as players like as Al Horford, Nikola Vucevic and Joel Embiid pop back to the 3-point line in pick-and-roll actions. I'm not suggesting the NBA isn't a league largely predicated on playmaking ball-handlers, rather that the presence of such skilled guards and wings doesn't preclude the big dudes from adapting. The center position isn't dead, it's just different.
The classic pick-and-roll center and the rim protector archetype also remain capable of affecting both real and fantasy outcomes, as Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert and Andre Drummond are providing profound value via efficient scoring, great rates on the glass and dynamic defensive contributions. Capela is really making the leap this season, filling that rim-runner role we've seen DeAndre Jordan enjoy in Los Angeles all these years. Capela is leading the NBA in field goal percentage and somehow hitting 87.5 percent of his free throws after having shot 43.3 percent in his first three campaigns, but even some regression in these departments won't deflate his value much. My strategic evaluation is Houston's emergent Swiss center isn't a sell-high commodity in fantasy terms, but rather a worthy buy if available. Chris Paul's eventual return will only aid Capela's already impressive performance, as this talented young center will play nearly every minute with one of the league's best pick-and-roll facilitators in James Harden and Paul on the floor in the months ahead. I touch on some of the opportunity rates Capela and other notable players are enjoying in an evaluation of the league's first batch of player tracking data in a section below.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Reading the schedule
As I've touched on previously in this column, the earlier start this season alleviates some the variance in games played each week we've witnessed in past years. For example, just one team (Brooklyn) plays two games this week, while three teams played two games in Week 3 last season amid a more imbalanced schedule. The same is true for a lack of five-game weeks this season, as we witness only one team play a five-game week all season (the Kings after the All-Star break). My main take from this infusion of balance with almost every team playing three to four games each week is that stacking up on teams with busy schedules or fading players on two-game teams in weekly formats isn't as applicable this season, so we should instead use other matchup factors to influence how we set our rosters or seek out streaming players for short-term usage.
In these early weeks, I still think it's a bit premature to rely heavily on the ratings in the table above, as these often need about 10 games of data to really begin to stabilize. This isn't to say we can't find ways to create differentiation for making key roster and lineup decisions. I like to use both pace and defensive rating as simple demarcation points when selecting between players of similar production and projections. Insiders have access to ESPN's rich assortment of advanced team data, allowing for quick sorting of the fastest offenses -- which serve to add possessions and thus opportunities -- and weakest defenses, which naturally serve to invite stronger statistical showings from opponents. If I have two forwards close in both minutes and in most offensive categories and one faces the Mavericks, a team that we can identify having the league's lowest rebounding rate and third-worst defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions), and another facing the Hornets, a team fifth strongest in rebounding efficiency and second best in defensive rating, I often respect the margin between these matchups.
Tracking trends
I'm sure (or hope) I'm not alone in having checked the NBA's Player Tracking pages almost every day since the start of the season hoping to see data from the 2017-18 populating the feed. My peculiar persistence finally paid off, as the pages are now live and rife with some the most actionable information available for fantasy managers. As an interesting preface, the league no longer uses SportVU's camera system in the catwalks above NBA courts around the country, as this is the first season the league relies on Second Spectrum to measure thousands of data points per second as the players on the court below play. The reason I've been so anticipant for the release of tracking data is how helpful I've found it in year's past for identifying advanced opportunity rates that really translate well to the surface statistical categories we covet as fantasy managers. To this end, I often check the tracking of rebounding opportunities when I need to find out high-floor rebounding situations that might be undervalued on the fantasy market. For instance, Enes Kanter is feasting on the glass for New York thanks to enjoying 24 rebounding chances per game, defined as being within 3.5 feet of an available rebound. While Dwight Howard has enjoyed a revival of sorts in Charlotte while sitting first in the league (minimum two games played) in rebounding chances, it's compelling to find his understudy Cody Zeller tied with Houston's Capela with 18 chances per night, suggesting he's a widely available source for rebounds. Lonzo Ball tops all guards with 17.3 rebounding chances per night on a Lakers team often playing small and without strong rebounding personnel in the frontcourt.
Rebounding chances are just one part of this vast tracking index, as sorting through touches is a helpful angle for finding ball-dominance trends. It's likely a great time to buy low on Dennis Schroder, as his early injury scare has kept him from unleashing what will be a Westbrookian usage pattern this season. The touches index reveals Schroder is averaging 98.7 touches per game, second in the league. Similarly, fears of Ben Simmons's lack of shooting range might be quelled by sheer volume, as he trailed Schroder by just 0.5 touches per game. In a game that sort of needs you to have the ball in your hands to produce on offense, a simple metric such as touches helps sift through the leaders in ball dominance.
This rate also extends to the frontcourt, as Chicago's Lauri Markkanen is 12th in the entire league in touches per game, revealing the Bulls' shallow roster could feed him with enough work to live up to his hot start. Sort for points by touch for players averaging at least 15 minutes and you can source some of the more efficient scorers in the league, as Utah's Rodney Hood currently leads the league with .738 points per touch. As you can guess, I could go on forever referencing different ways to reveal value with this data. In addition to checking out my waiver wire piece that goes live each Sunday, I suggest using our Insider stats and the league's rich tracking data to inform your management decisions in the weeks ahead, a time when the most influential waiver additions should emerge.
